Trump's election victory raises concern among global climate leaders

A sculpture made by Indian sand artist Sudarsan Pattnaik depicting former US President Donald Trump after he won a sweeping victory in the US presidential election in Puri of India's Odisha state on November 6, 2024. [AFP]

Former US President Donald Trump’s election victory has sparked widespread concern among climate leaders around the world. His campaign, which includes elements of climate denial, poses significant challenges to global climate efforts. However, officials stress that the transition to clean energy will continue, regardless of political setbacks.

Trump’s decision to withdraw the US from the Paris Agreement in 2017 raised doubts about the global consensus on climate action. As COP29 approaches, voices from vulnerable regions like Africa are calling for stronger US.leadership, particularly in financing climate adaptation.

Former Kenyan Prime Minister Raila Odinga emphasized the need for the US to step up, stating: “Africa suffers from climate impacts it didn’t create. The U.S. has a duty to take responsibility, especially at COP29.” Raila urged the US to demonstrate leadership at the upcoming conference in Baku, Azerbaijan, and to make meaningful financial commitments for climate adaptation and mitigation.

Charles Wanguhu, head of Kenya’s Enzi Ijayo-Africa Initiative, also called for tangible US commitments in Baku, urging the US as a major oil producer to set ambitious climate targets. He warned that the outcome of COP29 could define the pace of global climate cooperation for years to come.

In Malawi, former President Joyce Banda expressed concern that the re-election of Trump could undermine the hopes of developing nations in tackling climate change. “The outcome of the U.S. election is consequential for the climate. We expect the U.S. to do what’s right for the planet and future generations,” Banda said.

In Europe, climate leaders are taking a cautious but optimistic approach. Laurence Tubiana, CEO of the European Climate Foundation, acknowledged the potential setback, but emphasized the resilience of the Paris Agreement. “The US risks forfeiting its role in the clean energy transition,” he warned, citing the fact that the US coalition America is All In—comprising 65 per cent of the population and 68 per cent of the GDP—remains committed to climate action. Tubiana suggested that Europe now bears an increased responsibility to lead, demonstrating that climate action can both strengthen economies and protect communities.

German State Secretary Jennifer Morgan affirmed that the European Union would continue pursuing climate neutrality regardless of US policies. “We’ll continue to implement our climate laws and collaborate at all levels,” she said, adding that Germany would push for a level playing field for green industries.

Despite Trump’s victory, COP29 in Baku will proceed as scheduled, with a Biden-led US delegation representing the country. However, Trump’s re-election casts a shadow over climate finance discussions. Experts are concerned that a Republican president might signal an intention to withdraw from the Paris Agreement again, potentially disrupting future funding commitments and leaving developing nations without critical resources.

Julius Mbatia, a climate finance expert at ACT Alliance, warned that failure to secure climate finance at COP29 could devastate vulnerable countries’ adaptation and resilience plans. “We are in the same storm but in vastly different boats,” he said, stressing the financial gap facing Africa’s climate objectives. Mbatia added that higher ambition in climate finance could help reduce borrowing costs for the countries most affected by climate change.

In recent weeks, global leaders have reaffirmed their commitment to climate action. The EU, UK, and G7 nations, as well as emerging economies like Brazil, have pledged to continue their support. Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, who will host COP30, reiterated that “Multilateralism is the only way to overcome the climate emergency.”

While a Trump administration may scale back federal climate efforts, US states, cities, and businesses are prepared to act independently. Analysis shows that these non-federal actors could achieve nearly 48 per cent of the emission reductions needed by 2035, even without federal backing.

Though Trump’s return to the White House is concerning, history suggests that global climate efforts will adapt. In 2016, after Trump’s first withdrawal from the Paris Agreement, countries reaffirmed their climate commitments. “Keep calm and carry on,” said a European climate diplomat, noting that clean energy investment has surged even under previous Trump leadership.

Ralph Regenvanu, Special Envoy for Climate Change and Environment for Vanuatu, emphasized the need for continued global cooperation. “We cannot afford to let the momentum for global action on climate change be derailed,” he said, citing the increasing number of extreme weather events, such as Hurricane Milton, affecting both the US and Pacific nations. “This is a shared problem that will not solve itself without international cooperation,” he added, stressing that world leaders must act decisively at COP29.

Christiana Figueres, former Executive Director of the UNFCCC, also weighed in on the election’s implications. “The result of this election is a major blow to global climate action, but it cannot and will not halt the progress we’ve made in decarbonizing the global economy and meeting the Paris Agreement’s goals,” she said. “Clean energy technologies will continue to outcompete fossil fuels because they are healthier, faster, cleaner, and more abundant—and because they expose the unsolvable volatility and inefficiency of fossil fuels.”