United opposition must organise beyond tribes

The United Opposition must decide the kind of political movement it wants to build. Is it bringing together ethnic voting blocs around a negotiating table, or building a national coalition around shared ideas, interests and aspirations?

Adding up communities does not, by itself, amount to building a national movement. Recently, one opposition leader spoke about ethnicity and how, by his calculations, he was politically sorted because he had two allies from populous communities. The discussion that followed quickly became one about which tribes matter and which do not. Dr Fred Matiang’i challenged that thinking, asking where those from communities said not to matter are supposed to go, and where their God is.

Are some Kenyans so politically insignificant that their interests can be left out of national negotiations? Are their votes less valuable because their communities are smaller? Ethnic arithmetic can turn citizenship into a numbers game and create a hierarchy in which some communities are treated as indispensable and others as optional.

This is not an argument that ethnicity no longer matters in Kenya. Historical marginalisation and unequal development are real and must be addressed.

But acknowledging our diversity is not the same as making tribe the organising principle of political competition. A coalition should recognise every community without reducing people to the voting numbers their leaders claim to command. Representation should widen the table, not turn it into a marketplace where communities are valued only for the numbers they deliver.

We live in a country of intermarriages, blended families and increasingly cosmopolitan towns and cities. In Nairobi, Mombasa, Nakuru, Eldoret, Thika and elsewhere, Kenyans from different backgrounds live, work, trade, raise families and build communities together. Many have relatives, friends and in-laws from other communities. Our social reality is increasingly interconnected, yet our political imagination remains trapped in ethnic arithmetic. We cannot afford to entertain the idea that one tribe is superior to another.

The united opposition therefore needs an organising principle beyond tribe. What, beyond opposition to the current administration, brings its leaders and parties together? What common vision do they share? What would they do differently on taxation, public debt, jobs, healthcare, education, corruption, devolution and the cost of living? Opposition to a president is not, on its own, a governing programme. Kenyans need to know what the coalition is for, not just whom it opposes.

There is also a lesson in the current political arithmetic in Israel. Following the October 2026 election, Arab-led parties won 19 seats in the 120-member Knesset. Neither of the main blocs secured a majority, making the Arab-led parties relevant to negotiations over formation of a government. Their parliamentary numbers show why no constituency can simply be wished away. Political arithmetic should teach us the importance of cooperation, not give anyone a licence to declare others irrelevant.

The opposition must also examine the culture it is cultivating within its own ranks. Calling individuals and parties they form or represent "moles" simply because they seek to join an opposition coalition is an insult to the spirit of multiparty democracy.

Political parties are entitled to organise, compete, negotiate and enter alliances. Of course, political actors should be scrutinised, and trust must be earned. But suspicion is not evidence. Political history or the timing of someone's arrival is not proof of infiltration.

A coalition that humiliates newcomers will eventually shrink into a club of familiar faces. Gather all and scatter none should be more than a slogan. It should mean welcoming new entrants, making room for different opinions, resolving disagreements and applying the same standards of accountability to everyone. A broad coalition cannot be built through political gatekeeping.

Perhaps established politicians should also pay attention to the generation that challenged the old political script in 2024. The Gen Z protests began with opposition to the Finance Bill but grew into a wider expression of anger about governance, accountability and the social contract.

Young Kenyans described themselves as tribeless, leaderless and partyless. Their mobilisation showed that people could come together around shared grievances without first asking which ethnic community they belonged to or which political leader spoke for them. Turning street mobilisation into lasting institutional change is difficult, but its political imagination deserves attention.

Nobody can be bigger than the cause they champion. No leader should be more important than the national project. The united opposition has an opportunity to offer something beyond the familiar counting of communities and distributing political entitlements.

It can build a coalition around citizenship, accountability, inclusion and a credible programme for governing. That requires leaders willing to listen, share space and accept that no community owns the opposition. The question is not how many tribes the principals can bring to the table. It is whether they can articulate a cause compelling enough for Kenyans to see themselves in it.