Lee Kinyanjui, Susan Kihika size up each other in a two-horse race

Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui chats with Senator Susan Kihika at Nakuru ASK showground during the Nakuru County Jubilee primaries in April. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

The Nakuru governor contest is a two-horse race between Governor Lee Kinyanjui of Jubilee Party and Senator Susan Kihika of the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Mr Kinyanjui had initially formed the Ubuntu Peoples Forum (UPF) party and declared that he would use it to defend the seat.

But he later rejoined Jubilee Party, which issued him with a direct ticket to seek a second term in office in the August 9 General Election.

It is believed that Kinyanjui decamped from UPF after President Uhuru Kenyatta prevailed upon him.

Jubilee is an affiliate party of Azimio la Umoja One Kenya, which has Raila Odinga as its presidential candidate and Martha Karua of Narc-Kenya as the running mate.

Kinyanjui’s return to the ruling Jubilee party is a clear indication of how important Nakuru county is in Uhuru succession.

With more than one million registered voters, the county is a key battleground for the two rival political formations - Azimio and Kenya Kwanza - that have front-runners in the presidential race.

It is in Nakuru where the political merger between the defunct United Republican Party and The National Alliance parties was solemnised in 2012 and later gave birth to Jubilee.

Although President Kenyatta is serving his last term in office, he is said to be keen on maintaining Nakuru as his political base.

The president’s family has huge economic investments in the county, a factor that informs the political interest.

Deputy President William Ruto is also keen on maintaining a tight political grip on Nakuru as it falls under his Rift Valley stronghold.

Dr Ruto, just like the Head of State, enjoys massive support in the region and therefore any candidate with his backing is likely to win an elective seat.

It is against this background that the race for Nakuru governor has attracted the attention of the two leading presidential contenders.

Ms Kihika, an ally of DP, who has stuck by his side after the bitter fallout in the Jubilee party, is hoping to ride on the UDA wave in the Rift Valley to beat Kinyanjui.

The senator’s appointment as one of the leaders to spearhead Ruto’s presidential campaign in the region is expected to bolster her governor bid.

Although the race for the governor has attracted five independent candidates, the contest is largely seen as a two-horse race between Kinyanjui and Kihika.

Dr Stanley Karanja, former Senator James Mungai, businessmen Eliud Karanja, Ibrahim Gitau Karanja and Munyua Karunjigi, will vie as independent candidates.

Mr Karanja and Mr Mungai, who were Jubilee members, opted to vie as independent candidates after the governor was issued with a direct ticket.

Analysts, however, believe that the independent candidates may spoil the party for Kinyanjui and Kihika as they are likely to take away a huge chunk of the votes.

Prof Gitile Naituli says that independent candidates are likely to weaken the chances of one of the front-runners to clinch the governor seat.

“Karanja and Mungai were in Jubilee. They have a support base that is likely to sympathise with their plight and vote for them. That will definitely eat into a sizable chunk of votes meant for the Jubilee candidate,” he says.

To boost his re-election campaign, Kinyanjui dropped his deputy Dr Eric Korir for Francisca Kamuren, who unsuccessfully vied for Nakuru Town West parliamentary seat.

Ms Kamuren, 47, who worked in the inaugural Nakuru County Public Service Board and served as a lecturer at a local university, has a passion for community development.

Her wealth of experience in grassroots mobilisation is expected to boost the governor’s support base and lock the Kalenjin vote, which is key to his re-election bid.

Registered voters

The Kalenjin forms about 25 per cent of the 1.1 million registered voters in the cosmopolitan county. The Kikuyus are the majority at about 53 per cent while other communities constitute the remaining 22 per cent.

In the 2017 General Election, Kalenjins overwhelmingly voted for Kinyanjui as the second governor of Nakuru County.

He garnered 599,961 votes, majority from the Kikuyu and Kalenjin communities that backed the UhuRuto ticket.

Pundits say the governor’s decision to pick Kamuren is strategic because she is likely to attract the women and Kalenjin votes.

“For the past four years, the governor’s campaign team has been lacking a polished mobiliser in the top hierarchy of his administration. His deputy governor was a scholar with no known political experience,” says Andrew Nyabuto, a local political commentator.

“His choice of Kamuren as his running mate is well understood when looked at from a political angel,” says Mr Nyabuto.

The move is also aimed at countering Kihika’s candidature, which has drawn the attention of female voters.

Kinyanjui is also banking on his development track record to win a second term.

The governor has won several awards due to his performance. He was named Africa’s best business-friendly governor of the year 2020.

A section of voters say that compared to his predecessor Kinuthia Mbugua’s reign, Kinyanjui’s tenure has had no drama and has won the admiration of many.

“As he completes his first term, it is very easy to gauge the achievements of Kinyanjui’s administration - from infrastructure to health - he has done well with massive development projects that he has completed,” says Timothy Okinyi, a resident.

Besides the popularity of UDA, which the latest opinion poll placed at 34 per cent countrywide, Kihika will be banking on the support of the DP to win the elections.

In the 2017 polls when she campaigned for Senate seat, she garnered 641,533 votes, which translated into 89.6 per cent of all registered voters.

She has picked David Kones, a teacher-cum-preacher, as her running mate.

The choice of Mr Kones, 62, is also deliberate and calculated to attract the Kalenjin vote, which is considered crucial to any of the candidates.

He worked as a teacher at Ogiek Sotiki Secondary School in Kuresoi South constituency before he retired to take up evangelism and community work.

As a preacher and the director at African Gospel Church, Kones is expected to rally the faithful behind Kihika’s candidature.

The senator’s strength is in her ability to mobilise voters and steer well-oiled campaigns.

Described as a go-getter and no-nonsense politician, Kihika is campaigning on the platform of transformative leadership, which she says will take care of the interests of all residents regardless of their ethnic background or social status.

In a nutshell, the race for Nakuru governor will be won or lost on grounds of development record and ethnic mobilisation.