How a single person can spread virus to masses

Ministry of Health's Julius Shem carrying out samples from residents of Kawangware during mass testing for Covid-19. [Jonah Onyango/Standard]

Eleven cases of Covid-19 in Kawangware, Nairobi were traced to one person in the area, detailing just how infectious the disease is and the importance of social distancing.

The case of patient 189, as detailed in an analysis of the infection web by the Ministry of Health, is directly responsible for cases 243, 244, 245, 258, 269 and 270.

These cases later infected five other individuals in the same area namely cases 370, 371, 372, 380 and 382.

The analysis given by Health Cabinet Secretary Mutahi Kagwe showed the same scenario in Kilifi County where case 14 infected seven people. This scenario, noted the CS, is what made the ministry insist on social distancing.

“If you look at case 189, it means these people were somewhere together, they were collected together and put in quarantine together and then tested,” he explained.

“This is what we mean when we talk about the fact that one individual is crucial, and these are real numbers,” he added.” This is a call for action, if you live in Kawangware, you should be aware that the person next to you could as well be positive.”

Kawangware, which has 13 confirmed cases already in isolation, has been listed as one of the hotspots.

“This goes to explain our important role of contact tracing, because it means these 13 people would be spreading it out there, and it spreads like fire,” said Kagwe.

The detailed analysis given by the CS also listed Kilimani, Kileleshwa, Lavington, Eastleigh, Kibra, and Pipleline among the 16 hotspots in Nairobi. In Mombasa, Old Town, Bondeni, Likoni and Bamburi are the cited hotspots.

So far, 411 people have tested positive, with 150 recoveries and 21 deaths. The government reported 15 new cases, six recoveries and four deaths as the latest figures.

The analysis given by Kagwe did indicate the age group of between 15 and 29 as the problematic lot in the fight against Covid-19. While there have been deaths in other age groups (0-14, 30-59 and above 60), there has been no fatality among those aged between 15 and 29.

“What this tells you is that these is the group that spreads the disease. These are the most active individuals that you will find in clubs and such,” noted Kagwe.

Of the 21 deaths, there are 10 among those aged between 30-59 and those above 60. There is one death in the 0-14 age group.

Most of the deaths, the CS said, are being reported among males as only 19 per cent of those who have succumbed are female.

“The reason is because of the preexisting conditions among males like diabetes and high blood pressure,” he said.