Sub-Saharan Africa to have 23 million drug users by 2050

Africa is expected to record a surge in illicit drug users between 2019 and 2050, a report has indicated.

Currently, drug prevalence levels are higher in Sub-Saharan Africa than in Latin America and the Caribbean or South Asia, though not as high as in Europe and Central Asia.

In the next 30 years, there will be an additional 14 million of such users in Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa will have about 23 million users.

The findings were made in a study by ENACT, a transnational organised-crime programme that analysed Africa’s drug trade, policy and future consumption trends.

The drug scourge is blamed on weak regulation and organised crime across national borders.

Of the five African regions, East Africa is projected to have the sharpest increase in proportion to its population that is abusing drugs.

“In comparison, drug use is projected to increase by approximately one-fifth in Central and North Africa, while in southern Africa, it is expected to remain relatively stable, at approximately 1.3 per cent of the population,” reads the report.

The study notes that East Africa’s increase of drug users will be due to its rapid urbanisation and bulging youth population who are the drivers of drug consumption and abuse.

The report indicates that the youth, which is linked to a higher probability of social instability and violence, is having a growth in disposable income.

“Economic forces are also likely to drive a more rapid increase in the prevalence rate in East Africa than in other regions,” the report states.  “Household consumption, for instance, is projected to more than triple in Central and West Africa by 2050 but to increase more than five times in East Africa”.

The consumption rate will become a public health emergency since the continent will not meet the demand for treatment.

West Africa is set to remain the continent’s largest regional drug market. It will double from about 5.7 million users in 2018 to approximately 13 million in 2050.

ENACT says West Africa’s role has also expanded as a global drug-trafficking hub, particularly for cocaine.

“An underground economy has developed around the production and distribution of methamphetamines, particularly in Nigeria”.

A growing heroin economy has emerged from the international drug smuggling route down the East Coast of Africa for shipment to international markets.

The markets are becoming more sophisticated as perpetrators take advantage of secure innovations such as blockchain technology, cryptocurrencies and trading platforms on the dark web.

ENACT programme head Eric Pelser has implored the African Union and the regional economic communities to address the challenge.

“Illegal drug use poses a formidable law enforcement and public health problem to governments in Africa,’ he said.

ENACT is a European Union-funded partnership between the Institute for Security Studies (ISS), Interpol and the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organised Crime (GI).

ENACT has called on governments to ensure effective systems that reduce production and trafficking of drugs even as they expand healthcare for treatment of drug users

“Data collection and monitoring of drug use should be expanded and coordinated, and the stigma removed from drug use and the need for treatment. All regions of the continent should bolster their intelligence-led cross-border law enforcement to curb supply and production of illicit drugs, targeting traffickers rather than users,” it said.