On Tuesday, Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) candidate in Msambweni by-election Omar Boga will perhaps be heading to the ballot worried about the impact disgruntled faction in the party would have on the mini poll.
Political analysts concur that Mr Boga will also be anxious about the coalition the faction has established with an equally dissatisfied Jubilee group in and outside Msambweni.
But his supporters take solace in the fact that Msambweni is an ODM stronghold, having won the seat in 2007, 2013 and 2017. All the four ward rep seats were also won by ODM in the 2017 polls.
During the two months of campaigning, Boga has successfully projected himself as a “handshake” candidate who enjoys the support of ODM leader Raila Odinga and President Uhuru Kenyatta.
“I am a government candidate because the president and his government have endorsed me under the handshake arrangement,” Boga told the Sunday Standard.
Boga’s handshake branding is key to endearing himself to the majority upcountry votes in Diani municipality that covers Bongwe-Gumbato and Ukunda wards.
According to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission register, Ukunda and Bongwe-Gambato have a total of 39,000 voters out of the total 69,003 votes in Msambweni.
“Bongwe-Gambato and Ukunda have a huge number of voters from the Luhyia, Kisii, and Kikuyu communities,” said Said Mwamkondo, a civil rights crusader in Kwale.
On Thursday, Boga left the campaigns in Msambweni organised by Raila to join President Kenyatta in Mombasa for the launch of the Liwatoni floating footbridge.
The pictures of the meeting have been widely circulated on social media in what is seen as a continued strategy to depict Boga as a compromise or handshake candidate in the mini poll.
“Clearly, he knows the importance of the upcountry votes in Ukunda and Bongwe-Gambato wards. That is why he made sure he met President Kenyatta,” said Mr Mwamkondo.
He said the two wards are mostly cosmopolitan, with a majority of the voters from the Kikuyu, Kisii, Luo and Luhyia communities working in the hotels or who reside in the area.
Last week, Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho and Boga met representatives of the Kikuyu community and Gusii leaders in Ukunda.
On the day Boga was meeting Uhuru in Mombasa, Raila was declaring him a handshake candidate in Msambweni. Raila said the by-election results would be used as a yardstick to gauge the popularity of BBI.
“This by-election is a test to show whether or not we are ready for BBI. It is a litmus test to show us if BBI team will win or fail. If we fail here as ODM, it means BBI would have a problem,” said Raila.
Message to opponents
He said if ODM loses the seat, it would mean the Constitutional Amendment Bill 2020 would not sail through. Raila said Boga must win by 80 per cent to send a message to the opponents of BBI.
Mombasa lawyer Yusuf Abubakar, however, said bungled ODM primaries and Jubilee’s decision to drop out favours independent candidate Feisal Bader.
“ODM failed to follow its tradition of backing a relative of the departed MP in Msambweni. This appears to favour independent candidate Feisal Bader,” said Mr Abubakar.
The lawyer, a former secretary-general of Coast-based Shirikisho Party of Kenya, said Jubilee’s unilateral decision to drop out of the race was a big factor in influencing the outcome of the by-election.
Mr Bader is a nephew of former MP Suleiman Dori who died on March 9. He also served as Dori’s personal assistant.
Reports say that Jubilee officials in Kwale approached Bader to vie on the party, hoping to ride on the sympathy votes to win the seat, after it was clear that ODM had settled on Boga.
In September, Jubilee Secretary General Raphael Tuju issued the party’s verdict on Msambweni, declaring that the party would not challenge ODM for the seat.
This appears to have scared away Jubilee’s so-called rebel MPs from actively or openly campaigning for Bader. Some, however, adopted a subterranean campaign strategy for Bader.
“Jubilee issued a policy and Jubilee leaders would contravene the Political Parties Act and the Constitution if they campaigned for Bader,” said Abubakar.
Hassan Mwakimako concurs with Abubakar that mismanagement of ODM nomination and Jubilee’s decision not to field a candidate would play a key role in the outcome of the poll.
Prof Mwakimako, a lecture at Pwani University, believes the by-election is a litmus test for the influence of the handshake team and opponents.
“But locally, it is a test of how the governorship of Kwale in 2022 will go; whoever wins Msambweni will put the governorship race of Kwale in proper perspective,” said Mwakimako.
Kwale Governor Salim Mvurya has declared that he would support his deputy Fatuma Achani to succeed him. Ms Achani supports independent candidate Bader.
Vocal Malindi MP Aisha Jumwa claimed that she and the late Dori were victims of frustration by Mr Joho and told residents not to allow ODM leaders to “coerced” into voting for a particular candidate.
