As the results of the 2024 US elections came in on November 5th, an uncomfortable mood of expectation gripped the Kamala Harris Watch Party outside Howard University in Washington D.C.
It began with Trump winning Georgia, a key swing state Kamala Harris had campaigned hard to win.
Trump’s red wave then moved North to North Carolina, where despite the Republicans losing the governorship to the Democrats, Trump clinched this key state. This wave moved further North to smash the Democrat’s famed “Blue Wall” states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin. Trump swept them all. At this point, the writing was on the wall. Kamala Harris had lost badly to Donald Trump. He had crossed the threshold of 270 electoral votes to win the US presidency.
Why did Kamala Harris lose the 2024 election?
An autopsy of the eviscerated Democratic Party corpse has to begin at the White House and Joe Biden. In the last quarter of his presidency, he was one of the most unpopular presidents in the history of the US. Second only to George H. W. Bush (senior) before he lost to a maverick Bill Clinton in 1992. In addition to this, Joe Biden kept inserting himself in the Kamala Harris campaign by calling Trump supporters “Garbage” and giving interviews to the media which further dragged down the popularity of the Harris presidential bid.
Secondly, Kamala Harris failed to define herself as separate from Biden. Because Biden was also active in her campaign, she appeared to the electorate to be campaigning for the extension of the policies of an already unpopular president. Biden appeared in the first debate with Trump as confused, tired, old, and out of ideas. Part of Harris’ challenge in removing herself from the Biden Administration tag, was her respect and deference for her boss. In addition to this, her nomination for the Democratic party presidential ticket came late in the campaign season with limited time for her to define herself. The Republicans effectively defined her as nothing but a continuation of failed Biden policies. In addition to this, during her interviews, she never really defined what and how she would be different from Joe Biden. A factor that proved fatal for her in the end.
“It’s the Economy Stupid!”. The famous words of James Carville in the 1992 election proved to be true for the 2024 elections also. Despite the Democrats framing Trump as a threat to democracy, as a sexist, racist and misogynist, in the end, Americans vote in their pocketbooks.
There was a general sense that the economy was better under Trump before Covid-19 and that the country needed a new direction. Harris’ promise to clamp down on price gauging by retailers proved hollow. Not only because of doubts about its effectiveness in bringing down prices and inflation in the economy but there were doubts about how to apply anti-price gauging measures. Ironically, while the economy showed strong growth, and the past three jobs reports have shown an increase in jobs quarter to quarter, the high levels of inflation hurt consumers and damaged Harris’ election credentials.
Immigration proved to be the soft underbelly of the Democrats.
Trump had used the excuse of Covid.19, as a pretext to apply Title 42 which allowed him to shut down the US-Mexico border and reduce illegal crossings at the border. Immigration was at the centre of the Trump campaign message as he pounded Harris for being a failed Border Czar because she was appointed by Biden to go to source countries for most illegal migration in Central America and stop the menace. The Harris campaign did not do a good job contrasting her agenda on immigration as separate and different from that of Joe Biden. It was also not clear what her alternative was for the 15 million undocumented immigrants already in the US. Trump’s xenophobic rhetoric on immigration, hit a popular accord with the electorate. Particularly his no-nonsense approach to deporting all undocumented immigrants in the US.
Lastly, abortion did not resonate as an issue more important than the economy and illegal immigration to the concerns of Americans. Trump won almost 45% of the popular vote in New York, a very Democrat-friendly state while trouncing Kamala Harris in the popular vote nationally.
Immigration was a key issue not only in the state of New York but more importantly in the city of New York where beleaguered Mayor Adams is highly unpopular for his handling of the thousands of immigrants that came into the city over the past 24 months.
Abortion, which was seen by the Harris campaign as a central issue to bring out the women’s vote, proved insufficient to win her a majority of the states in the electoral college. Even though many states had abortion on the ballot. Trump was also cunning in obfuscating his position on abortion and insisting the abortion question was a state’s rights issue and not one for the president of the federal republic to decide. All in all, Kamala Harris made a gallant effort to become the first female president of the USA. Like Hillary Clinton before her, she has put a few more cracks in the glass ceiling to elect the first female president in the history of the USA. While she may have lost the election, the Democrats will surely continue the fight.
Professor Monda teaches political science, international relations and foreign policy at the City University of New York. @Mondaprof, davidmonda.com
