Surprise, surprise: EAC states have a lot to gain from newcomer Somalia

President William Ruto in Mogadishu for a regional meeting of frontline states on efforts to stabilize Somalia and eradication of terrorism. [PCS]

It was 1991 when a hawk-eyed photojournalist spotted Siad Barre, the dethroned president of Somalia, in a Nairobi hotel.

Somalia had then descended into chaos that defied even superpowers. The chaos sucked in terrorist groups, spilling over into neighbouring countries.

The chaos in Somalia has left our heads spinning; a country that speaks one language and has one religion but still chaos reigns.

If you want to see differences, you will see them. This time through clans. Most Kenyan tribes or communities have clans, but they rarely fight among themselves. Why in Somalia?

After three decades, Somalia is now getting a semblance of a nation. Did I see their embassy on Lower Kabete Road? The international community is leading in efforts to normalise Somalia. Let's not forget Kenya has troops in Somalia.

There are good reasons for Somalia to return to peace and join the community of nations. It's a market of 17 million and is strategically located along the Red Sea, from the Suez Canal.

Two initiatives stand out in stabilising Somalia. We have focused too much on a military solution and forgotten the economic solutions to Somalia's question.

One is debt forgiveness by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank. The country can now start on a clean slate. Hopefully on the slate will be written peace and prosperity.

The second one is joining the East African Community (EAC). I have been an advocate of Somalia joining the EAC.

It's an economic route to pacification. Once Somalia gets hooked on the East African market, the benefits will lead to peace; you don't cut the hand that feeds you.

Some observers opine that Somalia was steadily getting close to EAC, it just needed a nudge to join. After all, we no longer hear much of piracy. Did the political transition in Kenya make it easier for Somalia to join the regional bloc?

Why did it take so long for Somalia to join, yet it's the most easterly country in Africa?

One question being asked on the streets is what can we get from Somalia?

First, some surprises. Trade accounts for about 108 per cent of Somalia's gross domestic trade (GDP) by 2022, according to Lloyd Bank.

To measure the level of trade, divide exports plus imports by GDP. Some of Somalia's key exports include live animals and gold. Add resin, gum and fish. Key imports are tobacco (khat included), machinery, vegetables and sugar.

Still waiting for a surprise? Kenya's trade was 33.73 per cent of GDP. How does a "chaotic" country outperform a peaceful one like Kenya? Clearly, despite the chaos, trade has flourished in Somalia.

Was that her economic lifeline? What is Somalia's secret for trade? Is it its informal systems, the diaspora or foreigners?

My mouth is salivating. Somalia has a coastline of 3025km, about six times Kenya's! Are there beach plots on sale?

Is it possible that with Somalia in the EAC, tourism there will thrive? Shall we skip Dubai for Mogadishu or Kismayu?

This is not scaremongery; many silently fear some Somalia political and terrorism problems could spill over despite joining the EAC. This community straddles the border with Kenya. That could either make integration easier or difficult.

Others fear Somalia could indirectly dominate trade, and politics in the neighbouring countries. The country's fluid socio-political situation can be an easy conduit for such influence with life wires elsewhere.

Remember, Somalia is along the arc of instability from central Africa through Sudan, Ethiopia, Eritrea, and Yemen. And in whispers, why was the debate on Somalia joining EAC so muted?

Will Somalia's rich diaspora help in the integration through their skills and global exposure? A visit to Canada recently left me convinced Somalia's diaspora is an influential group.

When South Africa or Namibia won their independence, they sucked in skilled workers and entrepreneurs.

Will Somalia do the same after joining EAC as a frontier market? Will the Somalis in Kenya lead in investing in Somalia? Will battle-hardened Somalis in Somalia become East Africa's most formidable economic warriors?

What we can't deny is that allowing Somalia to join EAC is a great experiment. And it must work.

I guess the international community is thrilled. We can rebuild Somalia like Europe after World War II.

With a long land and maritime border with Kenya; I have no doubt our economy will benefit from this membership.

And there is precedence. Remember the shifta wars after Kenya's independence? They fizzled out but the Somali community got integrated into Kenya's socio-economic and political system.

Will the same happen when Somalia gets integrated into the community of nations?

Finally, while welcoming Somalia to the East African Community, we could ask if the bloc is becoming too big and losing its identity. Or is an expanded EAC a dress rehearsal for the Africa Free Trade Area?