NASA is Losing it, Again

Many political analysts, including NASA leaders and supporters believed that the coalition was enjoying tyranny of numbers and was going to win the August 8 election. However, NASA leaders and supporters were in rude shock when President Uhuru emerged the winner with more than 1.44 million votes. I know the result is still controversial after Supreme Court invalidated Uhuru’s victory and IEBC Chairman, Chebukati, confirmed that there were indeed irregularities in his contentious memo to Chiloba, IEBC CEO.

Nevertheless, many people are yet to answer the question on whether Uhuru won or NASA lost. One of the things that came out clearly during the Supreme Court presidential case was that NASA did not contest irregularities in the number of votes. The case was based on the irregularities and illegalities in the election process. However, the number of Jubilee elected leaders, especially in perceived NASA stronghold may make one conclude that NASA lost. For instance, in the case of Western region, Jubilee won 8 out of 33 parliamentary seats. I know it is possible to argue that NASA lost the eight seats due to internal wrangles among its aspirants. But it is also interesting to note that there was a significant increase in the number of votes Uhuru got in Western compared to 2012 general election. For example, the number of votes he got in 2017 in Kakamega, Bungoma, and Busia counties increased by 50,723, 82,877, and 26,214 respectively compared to 2012. This is the puzzle that NASA leaders are trying to understand, even as they argue that election was rigged in favor of president Uhuru.

One is likely to wonder where the NASA’s tyranny of numbers disappeared to on 8/8. One of the theories that can be used to explain NASA’s poor performance in August election is that the coalition did not rally its supporters to vote. The theory may be partially true because I personally know 8 NASA supporters who did not vote because they were just lazy to do so. It is also possible that NASA did not effectively execute it “Adopt the Polling Station Program”. Kenyans believed that NASA would use modern technology to transmit their results to its polling station. On the contrary, the NASA polling results were sent via text messages to its main polling station in Nairobi. This may explain why NASA could not numerically prove that it won. The Adopt the Polling Station program failed after NASA supporters contributed about Ksh. 400 million for the process. Failure of the program could have also given Jubilee an opportunity to steal NASA votes in Jubilee strongholds. This may be true, especially after one of my friends from Nakuru complained that he was surprised that Raila got zero votes in the polling station he voted in the county. Therefore, NASA performed poorly in the election because it did not mobilize its supporters to vote and it did not protect its votes.

But I am afraid NASA is losing it again because it has not learned from its mistakes. There is high possibility that NASA can win the rerun because it has numbers. However, NASA leadership may disappoint its supporters again if it does no strategize for a win. Importantly, it should use the money contributed via 991444 to ensure that 98% of its supporters vote come October 17th.