Why it will take a while for governors to become Kenya's president

When devolved governments were rolled out under the new Constitution in 2013, it was thought that a governor or two would emerge as strong contenders for the presidency in 2022.

In particular, the cosmopolitan and wealthy Nairobi, Mombasa, Kisumu, Kiambu  and Nakuru counties were regarded as good grooming grounds for a future Kenya CEO, with city’s Governor Evans Kidero standing heads of shoulders above his peers.

In the end, Kidero, Kisumu’s Jack Ranguma and Kiambu’s William Kabogo fell by the wayside after only one term.

Wycliffe Oparanya of Kakamega, Hassan Joho of Mombasa, Alfred Mutua of Machakos and Kivutha Kibwana of Makueni threatened to run, but limped off in the warm-up area, leaving only Murang’a’s Mwangi wa Iria, whose juvenile run was laughed out of town by polls’ boss Wafula Chebukati for lack of the necessary constitutional requirements.

Migori Governor Okoth Obado, who is facing murder and corruption charges, had too indicated the would run for president. It later merged that he was merely exercising his jaws.

It is perhaps only Kivutha Kibwana who at some point appeared as a serious contender, buoyed by Kenyans (on social media) who appreciated his sterling record as governor. 

In the end, he dropped the bid for presidency and is now running for senator under the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Alliance banner under Raila Odinga. Several outgoing governors are also running for MP or senator while others have strategically positioned themselves for whatever alms fall their way in terms of presidential appointments after the August election.

In a recent interview with The Nairobian, Kibwana, who had earlier said he would raise campaign money from the people, said lack of the war chest required to run for the presidency is the main reason it will be a tall order for a governor to rise to commander-in-chief.

“Governors may not easily raise the billions of shillings needed for a national presidential campaigns. Also, our politics are not yet ideologically oriented, but are still based on ethnic mathematics,” he stated.

Kibwana added that despite the fact that Kenyans have embraced devolution, the competition between the national and county governments has exposed county leaders as ‘junior partners’.

“Governors do not lead the major political parties whose leaders make decisions on ultimate leadership. Kenyans still tend to focus on the national leadership for presidency as opposed to county leadership.

“Retiring governors are however likely to serve in government in influential positions, Rome was not built in a day, a time will come when governors who perform well could be identified by Kenyans to lead them at the apex level,” Kibwana said.

Like Kibwana, Alfred Mutua also believes that one day Kenyans will elect a governor for president.

“I do believe that within the next two election cycles, a former governor will be the president of Kenya. I see myself as the first Kenyan governor to become Kenya’s president. The challenge we have in Kenya is that our politics is drawn along tribal lines,” he said.

Asked why he quit the race, Mutua told this reporter: “I looked at the current scenario and decided to wait for next time; I will be better prepared.”

Mutua said the presidential campaign is not flooded by retiring governors as was projected in 2013 because of the dynamics of Kenyan politics and frustrations at the county level.

“Governors who would be strong candidates have not had the space and time to campaign for office. They are continuously frustrated by the so called political kingpins who use MCAs to fight.

“The slow and late disbursement of funds from national Treasury and the bureaucracy at the Controller of Budget’s office also make it difficult for governors to work efficiently and have time to campaign by ventilating on national issues,” Mutua explained.

The Maendeleo Chap Chap leader nonetheless believes he will be a formidable political force the next time he steps forward and that he will be able to raise the “billions” needed for presidential campaigns. “For a presidential campaign, you need several billion shillings. I was going to raise the funds through friends and other political backers. I expect to get support from a broad base. I already had backers; local and international, that had lined up resources for me,” he said.

For Mutua, the amount of money pumped into a presidential campaign depends on when one starts campaigning and the style of the campaigns.

He notes that while governors hold positions of power, they can only influence a national following when the electorate becomes more savvy and less tribal.

“It will be very easy,” Mutua said.

But political analyst Herman Manyora says that despite counties being breeding grounds for leaders for the national government, the main problem is that counties are small entities.

“Chances of small things producing big people are small,” Manyora said while dismissing Mwangi Wa Iria, the only governor who stayed put as a man who just wanted to make a point.

The original regions that were in the Bomas Draft were 14 or so, and Manyora says if we had the 14 regions, governors would be huge people because then they would be commanding a big area.

“At least one or two of them would be very serious contenders at the national level. I think this is the reason why governors fizzled out. As things stand, it will be difficult for these small counties to nurture big politicians,” the university lecturer and political analyst said.

Mwangi wa Iria only running on billboards

 why did governors develop cold feet after announcing they would run for president? Governance consultant Charles Munyui believes it was about building clout for subsequent political negotiations.
“They wanted to remove local competition. I also feel they were bidding and wanting to negotiate for themselves and the regions they represent. 
“I don’t think they were serious contenders from day one, there are very few people in this country who can run a presidential election conclusively,” said Munyui.
What of Mwangi wa Iria, who almost made it to the debe?
“I find it hard to understand Mwangi wa Iria. Other than the billboards, I have not seen him holding rallies like a serious contender. I would have expected him to first and foremost convert the Mount Kenya region.
“I don’t know exactly what Mwangi is doing. He is one of those people that we will live to study,” Munyui said.
Political analyst Maimuna Mwidau, on the other hand, dismissed governors who announced intent to run as merely engaging in ‘showmanship’.
“Showmanship is where the party gives opportunities for other leaders to run to show that there is democracy within a party. But in essence, they had no intention of running for president,” Mwidau said, adding that there is currently no county that can 

You can’t acquire national image from the village - Mokua  

Political analyst Herman Manyora believes that it would have been a herculean task for governors like Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya to run because they were operating under the shadow of presidential hopeful and their party boss, Raila Odinga.
“By saying they were going to run, they were looking at a situation where Raila was not running. If Raila was not running, one of this gentlemen would be on the ballot now. 
For Kibwana, he made a self-assessment and as an educated person, he realised he wasn’t strong enough for that position. “If Joho and Oparanya were still in the race, because of Raila, they would feature nowhere. It would be a sheer waste of time. When you are operating under the shadow of a huge tree, it is very difficult for your tree to sprout,” Manyora said, adding: “Raila is too strong and our politics is practiced around big names.”
But political analyst Dismus Mokua says most retiring governors have not gained national recognition to run for presidency because they became governors in their villages.
“People run for these positions back in their villages, that makes it a challenge for one to acquire a national image. Majority of governors did not take advantage of their office to secure a national image. Majority of these second term governors did not go the extra mile. Instead, they identified themselves as regional and tribal kingpins.
“There is no single governor who has done something so amazing in their counties to bring to the national conversation,” Mokua said.
He further noted that Kenya is aligned to ethnic nationalism and ethnic majoritarianism.
“Majority of Kenyans identify with their ethnic biases, so if you come from a minority background, people are less likely to vote for you. This is because the average Kenyan voter is emotional and irrational. They have been held captive by the tribal leaders; they respond when their national leader speaks,” he said.
He said governors were forced to lie low because they belonged to political parties headed by influential and powerful national leaders and were likely to land in trouble for expressing higher political ambitions that threaten the party leader.
This is why the likes of Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Hassan Joho, who have acquired a national image, shelved their ambitions in order not to run against their party leader, he said.
“The only reason Oparanya said he wanted to be president was to assist Raila Odinga grow and consolidate his base in western Kenya. With Musalia Mudavadi and Moses Wetang’ula in the picture, Oparanya’s pronouncement was to disrupt the status quo.
“The same goes for Mombasa governor Hassan Joho. His was to disrupt Amason Kingi. None of those people have the guts to go against the grid of the political party,” he said.
Asked about Kivutha Kibwana’s complaint about lack of campaign cash, Mokua dismissed it as a “brave excuse”.
“The moment you create a brand and the people believe that you have a probability of winning, you will immediately attract the attention of party donors. People will give you money if you have a serious brand.
“Also, with a strong brand, people seeking elective posts will start aligning to you, meaning you get a lot of money from nominations. In my view, it has nothing to do with raising billions, but everything to do with the lacking a strong national brand that people can trust,” said Mokua.
Charles Munyui, a governance consultant, says that governors confided themselves in their respective counties because they did not develop (regional) economic blocs.
“They found themselves in small units that would not give them any traction to pursue the presidency,” Munyui said, adding that it was because most Kenyans don’t understand devolution. - Esther Dianah