What next for DP Gachagua if Senate, court saves him

As the Senate prepares to take up the impeachment case against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua this week, pundits are increasingly focused on the potential consequences of his acquittal by either the Senate or the courts.

Observers note that Gachagua’s survival from what is being called the political guillotine could significantly impact the country’s political landscape, given his deep-rooted differences with President William Ruto and the MPs calling for his removal.

Such an acquittal, they say, would give Gachagua a renewed political mandate, potentially revitalising his support base and readying him for a bruising battle for control over the Mt Kenya region.

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Koigi noted that the President would isolate Gachagua, cutting him off from key government operations and clipping his political wings. Gachagua has reportedly been excluded from crucial government business and denied access to the President’s itinerary.

Broad backing

Former Molo MP Njenga Mungai warns that Gachagua and his allies should be cautious not to isolate the Mt Kenya region from the rest of the government and the country.

“The Mt Kenya region, now more than ever, needs a new generation of leadership capable of guiding the community into a new political era, sharing a vision with other like-minded Kenyan communities,” said Mungai, the chairman of the Jubilee Party’s Council of Elders.

Mungai said the overwhelming support for the impeachment motion in the National Assembly is a clear indication that Gachagua lacks broad backing from leaders across the country.

“That is why, if the charges against Gachagua are dismissed by the courts—which is now his only hope—he must exercise great wisdom as he fights his battles,” Mungai added.

According to Mungai, Gachagua’s predicament is self-inflicted. “He should retrace his political steps and carve out a new destiny without creating a wedge between the government and Mt Kenya residents.”

Koigi, who served as an assistant minister in President Kibaki’s administration, expressed doubts about Gachagua’s ability to fight a political war against Ruto. He argued that Ruto, who has survived numerous political battles, is determined to push his deputy out and deal with the political fallout in the Mt Kenya region.

Mungai also observed that while Gachagua feels betrayed by the UDA party, his personal attacks on the President could further alienate Mt Kenya from the rest of Kenya.

“Any astute politician understands the power of the presidency in Kenya and should know the right path to follow while charting his political destiny,” Mungai added.

Mungai said he can differentiate between genuine political activities and hate campaigns.

Tribal label

This distinction, he said, separates Gachagua from Kikuyu leaders such as former presidents Mwai Kibaki and Uhuru Kenyatta who built national political bases.

When Kibaki was in the opposition, Mungai noted, he established support in Kisii, Coastal, Maasai, North Eastern, and Ukambani regions, in addition to Mt Kenya. Uhuru similarly garnered support in the Kalenjin, North Eastern, Mt Kenya East, Coastal, and Kisii regions.

“Gachagua faces the challenge of building support outside Mt Kenya to shed the tribal label,” Mungai remarked.

Political commentator Kabue Mathenge believes that regardless of whether Gachagua is impeached or survives, the political consequences for Ruto are significant.

“Gachagua and his troops have already crossed the Rubicon, and the battle lines in Mt Kenya are firmly drawn. The combatants have unsheathed their swords, and blood will be spilled in this political struggle,” Mathenge said.

He argued that the coming conflict could reshape Kenya’s political landscape and disrupt the presidential voting pattern in the 2027 elections.

Ruto, who rode a wave of Mt Kenya support to power in the last General Election, could now be forced to seek alliances in Raila Odinga’s political strongholds, Mathenge said.

Political duel

In the past year, the political tide in Mt Kenya has shifted against Ruto, driven by mounting economic challenges. Gachagua’s political troubles have only heightened the region’s sense of betrayal and frustration.

Observers note a parallel to President Uhuru Kenyatta’s second term, during which Ruto exploited similar frustrations to weaken Uhuru’s influence.

Now, they argue, Gachagua’s survival could ignite a political firestorm that would engulf the Mt Kenya region, becoming the epicentre of a fierce political duel between Ruto and Gachagua.

The National Assembly last Tuesday approved the impeachment motion against Gachagua, forwarding the decision to the Senate, which is set to begin hearings on Wednesday.

On Friday, the High Court referred five petitions challenging the impeachment process to Chief Justice Martha Koome, requesting the appointment of a multi-judge bench to hear the case.

Justice Lawrence Mugambi, in his ruling on separate applications filed by Gachagua and others, stated that the suits raised important constitutional questions requiring adjudication by a multi-judge panel.

The motion, passed by 281 members of the National Assembly against 44 dissenters, has the potential to end Gachagua’s political career.

Conversely, some pundits argue that Gachagua’s survival could harm MPs from his Mt Kenya stronghold who have been at odds with him.

A recent incident in Bahati, Nakuru County, where Governor Susan Kihika and other Kenya Kwanza leaders were heckled by a hostile crowd, highlights the rising political tension in the region amid Gachagua’s mounting problems.

Kihika, along with a group of MPs, was attending the funeral of Bahati MP Irene Njoki’s brother, Henry Gachathi, when mourners booed her as she read President Ruto’s message of condolence.

The heckling revealed the shifting political dynamics in a region once seen as Ruto’s stronghold.

New alliance

Former Bahati MP Kimani Ngunjiri predicts that if Gachagua survives either in the Senate or the courts, he will resign.

“I foresee a situation where he is cut off from government activities, with his budget slashed to the bare minimum. His close allies will also feel the heat of his battles with the government,” Ngunjiri said.

Ngunjiri also observed that while Gachagua enjoys support in Mt Kenya, some of his Rift Valley backers may abandon him to avoid sparking political tensions with their neighbours.

Tribalism, Ngunjiri argues, remains the main force driving Kenyan politics, and Gachagua’s continued attacks on Ruto will not sit well in the Rift Valley.

The former lawmaker, once a close ally of both Ruto and Gachagua, added that Ruto may create alternative leadership structures in Mt Kenya counties to weaken Gachagua’s influence. His allies could face mounting government pressure to abandon him.

Ngunjiri said that while Gachagua may assemble his troops with an eye on the 2027 General Election, his opponents will run well-oiled political machines designed to exhaust him financially.

He added that both Ruto and Raila, now political allies, will work tirelessly to block Gachagua from gaining a foothold in Mt Kenya.