Solai Dam: Act of God or gross negligence?

An excavator covers a mass grave during the burial of a section of Solai Dam tragedy victims in Subukia, Nakuru County, on May 16, 2018. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

It was like a scene from a Hollywood disaster movie.

On the evening of May 9, 2018, a dam at the vast Solai Farm located 30 kilometres north of Nakuru City, burst open, releasing millions of gallons of water that killed at least 47 people and displaced many more.

The cause of the breach was initially unclear, but some experts have suggested that it was caused by an "Act of God," such as a flash flood or an earthquake. Others have argued that the breach was more likely caused by negligence; poor maintenance or inadequate design.

Ensuing from this disaster, a criminal case is currently before Naivasha Chief Magistrate Nathan Lutta. Without getting into the details of the case, the following scenarios are at play.

On the one hand, the area where the dam was located is prone to flooding and seismic activity, and there had been heavy rains in the days leading up to the breach. The dam in question, unbeknownst to many, was built in the colonial era.

The case for an Act of God

Indeed, survivors recall that the area was deluged by heavy rains in the days leading up to the breach. Also worth noting is that the Rift Valley is a highly geologically active region. There have been several earthquakes in the region in recent years.

A paper by Dr Mulwa Josphat Kyalo, who holds a Ph.D. in applied Geophysics and Hydrogeology, says tectonic structures across the East African Rift likely "pose the greatest earthquake hazard in Kenya."

The Kenya National Highways Authority (KeNHA) recently used the same logic to explain the large cracks that rendered a section of the Mai Mahiu - Narok Highway impassable.

A dam at Solai Estate burst open on May 9, 2018, killing 47. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

On the date in question, a combination of these factors might have created a perfect storm that led to the dam breach. The heavy rains caused the water level in the dam to rise, and the earthquake may have weakened the dam's structure. As a result, the dam was unable to withstand the pressure of the water, and it burst.

The case for negligence

While the argument that the dam breach was caused by an Act of God is certainly plausible, there is also evidence to suggest that negligence may have played some role in the tragedy.

There have been allegations that the dam was not properly maintained and that there were design flaws that contributed to the breach. There are seven other dams on the Solai Farm. Their structural soundness on the night of the dam burst suggests adequate care was taken to ensure they were up to SPEC.

Even though the dam was located upstream, there was no early warning system in place to alert residents of the impending flood. As a result, many people were caught unaware.

Experts have also noted how human activity upstream may have compounded the damage caused by the dam burst.

The debate over the cause of the dam breach at Solai is likely to continue for some time and long after the ongoing case is concluded. However, the disaster has raised important questions about the safety of dams in Kenya and around the world. It is clear that dams can be dangerous, and that they need to be properly maintained and designed to be safe.