From pretender to Ruto's big threat: Edwin Sifuna's remarkable rise

Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna addresses Linda Mwananchi rally in Ukunda, Kwale County on October 31, 2026. [Omondi Onyango, Standard]

When the 2027 presidential race began taking shape, the political conversation was dominated by familiar names, with Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, former Interior Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i and former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua commanding much of the opposition attention.

But six months into the unfolding political contest, the political script appears to be changing, with Nairobi Senator Edwin Sifuna making one of the most remarkable rises in Kenya's recent political polling.

The latest TIFA Research survey released on Thursday places Sifuna at 31 per cent, tying him with President Ruto as the most preferred candidate to win the 2027 presidential election. Kalonzo follows at nine per cent, Matiang’i at five per cent and Gachagua at four per cent.

The findings represent a significant shift for a politician who, in May, was polling at just 10 per cent in a TIFA survey, trailing Ruto at 24 per cent, Kalonzo at 19 per cent and Matiang’i at 14 per cent.

At the time, Sifuna was largely seen as a rising figure rather than a serious contender for the country's highest political office. However, the divisions within the Orange Democratic Movement following the death of its long-time leader Raila Odinga provided a new political opening. With sections of the party embracing cooperation with Ruto's administration while others resisted the arrangement, Sifuna found himself at the centre of an ideological battle over the direction of the party.

What began as a struggle over the direction of ODM would eventually become a platform for his national political ambitions.

The first indication of the changing fortunes came in July, when an Infotrak survey released on July 13 placed Sifuna at 12 per cent, tying him with Matiang’i in third position. Ruto led with 32 per cent, followed by Kalonzo at 13 per cent.

A subsequent TIFA survey placed him second at 15 per cent, ahead of Kalonzo and Matiang’i, who recorded 13 and 14 per cent respectively.

The rise coincided with his growing visibility through the Linda Mwananchi rallies, which provided a platform to take his political message beyond the Senate and Nairobi politics.

However, his growing popularity was not without fluctuations. In September, Mizani Africa placed him third at 13.2 per cent, behind Ruto at 38.7 per cent and Kalonzo at 27.5 per cent.

The October surveys, however, showed that his position among the leading presidential contenders was becoming increasingly difficult to ignore. A Politrack Africa survey released on October 1 placed him second at 19.6 per cent, trailing Ruto at 45.1 per cent but ahead of Kalonzo at 10.3 per cent, Matiang’i at 7.2 per cent and Gachagua at six per cent.

By October 23, a Research 8020 survey had placed Sifuna at 25 per cent, just one percentage point behind Ruto, who had 26 per cent. Kalonzo and Matiang’i polled 11 and nine per cent respectively.

Although a Swiss Poll International survey released on October 28 placed him third at 17.6 per cent, behind Ruto at 40.2 per cent and Kalonzo at 19.7 per cent, the broader picture was that Sifuna had established himself among the country's leading presidential contenders.

The latest TIFA findings now place him at the same level as the incumbent, marking a dramatic change from the political outsider he appeared to be just months ago.

For Sifuna, the challenge will now be translating personal popularity into a formidable political organisation capable of mobilising voters across the country.

His growing numbers also present a new headache for established opposition leaders who have long positioned themselves as natural challengers to Ruto.

Kalonzo, Matiang’i and Gachagua must now contend with a politician whose popularity has grown considerably within a relatively short period. The presidential race is no longer just about the familiar political heavyweights. A new contender has entered the centre of the conversation, and this time, he is polling alongside the President.