Oomph Gachagua got from Ol Kalou win

DCP Leader Rigathi Gachagua and Ol Kalou MP-elect Samuel Kamau Ngotho at a past press conference in Nyahururu. [David Gichuru, Standard]

When Rigathi Gachagua was impeached as Deputy President, many believed his political influence would steadily fade as President William Ruto moved to consolidate his grip on Mt Kenya, the region that overwhelmingly backed Kenya Kwanza in the 2022 General Election.

His critics argued that, stripped of the trappings of office and replaced by Deputy President Kithure Kindiki, Gachagua would struggle to remain politically relevant.

Supporters of the Kenya Kwanza administration were equally confident that Mt Kenya would eventually rally behind the President and move on from its former political kingpin.

Less than two years later, that narrative is being tested.

Democracy for Citizens Party (DCP) candidate Samuel Waweru's victory in the Ol Kalou parliamentary by-election has handed Gachagua more than his party's first parliamentary seat.

It has injected fresh momentum into his political comeback, strengthened his bargaining power within the united opposition and reignited debate over the role he is likely to play in shaping the opposition's presidential ticket ahead of the 2027 General Election.

The outcome has shifted the political conversation from whether Gachagua still commands Mt Kenya to how much influence he will wield in determining who eventually challenges President Ruto in 2027.

DCP deputy party leader Cleophas Malala has added fuel to that debate by publicly suggesting that Gachagua should contest the presidency instead of merely backing another opposition candidate.

While many political analysts dismiss the possibility of a Gachagua presidential bid, they agree that  the Ol Kalou outcome has fundamentally altered the opposition's internal power equation.

Communication specialist Dr Hesbon Owilla says the by-election has significantly strengthened Gachagua's negotiating power by consolidating him as the dominant political figure in Mt Kenya.

"I think it gives him a very strong lever of power in terms of negotiations. Technically, he is not the candidate and probably cannot be the candidate, but what this does is consolidate his power as the ultimate kingpin in the Mt Kenya region," Owilla said.

According to Owilla, Gachagua's biggest bargaining chip is his ability to convince coalition partners that he has peeled away a sizeable portion of President Ruto's support in one of Kenya's largest voting blocs.

"He is likely to use that as a bargaining chip, saying he not only has Mt Kenya but has also clipped a significant chunk of the votes that made William Ruto president,”he noted.

Owilla believes Gachagua's biggest demand will not be the presidential ticket but a substantial stake in a future opposition government.

"I know he cannot be a candidate. The biggest demand he will make is a big stake in government,” he said.

He, however, warns that Gachagua's growing influence could become both the opposition's greatest asset and its biggest challenge.

"Biggest problem the opposition has is if everything revolves around Gachagua as the ultimate alternative to President William Ruto. We are likely to move back to the same conversation that led to his impeachment in the first place, the issue of shares in government. Technically, he is going to make a very big claim on what share he gets in the next government,” Owilla remarked.

Owilla also cautions that although Gachagua has consolidated support in Mt Kenya, presenting him as the face of the opposition nationally could benefit President Ruto.

"I think he is so divisive that if he is seen as the alternative to President William Ruto, it would ultimately work to President William Ruto's advantage,” he noted.

Political communication scholar Prof Charles Nyambuga believes the Ol Kalou victory has cemented Gachagua's position as the dominant political figure in much of Mt Kenya, giving him considerable influence over both regional politics and the opposition's coalition talks.

“What I see is that he'll have a very big say on who becomes governor, senator and Member of Parliament in the Mountain," Nyambuga said.

According to him, Gachagua's sustained campaign against President William Ruto over the past four years has transformed him into the region's principal opposition voice.

"His campaign has managed to galvanise the Mountain against President William Ruto. Most people in the Mountain feel aggrieved by President William Ruto. They feel shortchanged by President William Ruto. This mantra and this argumentation by him have propelled him to a high level in the Mountain,” he said.

He however, argues that Gachagua's rise cannot be viewed in isolation from growing public dissatisfaction with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

"Even before he left government, the Mountain was already slipping away. He followed the people to where they were already heading. This was as a result of President William Ruto's financial policies, especially taxation. If you talk to most people, they say life has become difficult,” he said.

While he does not believe Gachagua is positioning himself for a presidential run, Nyambuga says the former deputy president is deliberately carving out the role of political kingmaker.

"He knows very well that he cannot go for an elective seat at the moment, but you can clearly see him admiring the role of playing kingpin,” he added.

According to Nyambuga, that strategy means Gachagua is likely to seek influence that goes far beyond endorsing the opposition's presidential candidate.

“If he succeeds in consolidating the Mountain vote, he will naturally expect to have a decisive say not only on who becomes the opposition's presidential candidate but also on who is fielded for governor, senator, Member of Parliament and other elective positions across the region,” he noted.

Nyambuga argues that this places Gachagua at the centre of whether the United Opposition succeeds or fractures ahead of the 2027 election.

With Mt Kenya remaining one of Kenya's largest voting blocs, he says coalition principals will find it difficult to settle on a presidential candidate without Gachagua's backing, making him a central figure in both the making and the breaking of the opposition alliance.

That bargaining power, Nyambuga says, gives Gachagua significant leverage as opposition leaders seek to build a coalition capable of mounting a serious challenge against President William Ruto.

Gachagua's resurgence is also reshaping political calculations within Mt Kenya.

Jubilee Party, once the region's dominant political vehicle, is increasingly fighting to retain relevance, while Fred Matiang'i, whose presidential prospects partly depended on making significant inroads into Mt Kenya, faces a steeper political climb.

Owilla argues that Gachagua  has positioned himself as the custodian of Mt Kenya's political interests, making it increasingly difficult for both Jubilee and Matiang'i to compete for the same political space.

"The biggest trouble with Jubilee is that Gachagua is bold enough to deconstruct the narrative that was sold to the Mt Kenya region, and Jubilee probably thought it would continue benefiting from that without doing much,”he said.

He is likely to emerge as the custodian of the interests of the Mountain, something that is proving very difficult for an outsider like Fred Matiang'i to articulate,” Owilla added.

If that trend continues, Owilla believes DCP could steadily replace Jubilee as the dominant political vehicle in the region.

Political analyst Ignatius Nyukuri, however, cautions against treating the Ol Kalou outcome as proof that Gachagua now controls the entire Mt Kenya region.

"The outcome of the Ol Kalou by-election shows they have come out strong in Mt Kenya West. We don't just talk about Mt Kenya as a whole. We specify Mt Kenya West," he said, noting that DCP had earlier lost a by-election in Mt Kenya East.

For Nyukuri, the distinction is important because Gachagua's influence, while significant, remains largely regional.

"To become president, you need votes from Western, Eastern and across the country. From where I sit, Gachagua has no votes outside Mt Kenya,” he said.

Although he dismisses suggestions that Gachagua should become the opposition's presidential candidate, Nyukuri believes coalition leaders cannot afford to ignore him.

"What needs to be ruled out is him being the flag bearer. But the fact that he has a say in who becomes the opposition candidate, we give that to him because he is controlling a sizeable number of votes,” he said.

Nyukuri also sees the Ol Kalou result as another indication that Jubilee's grip on Mt Kenya is weakening.

"He has managed to dislodge Jubilee. Even some Jubilee officials celebrated the DCP victory,” he said.

For President Ruto, the by-election is another reminder that rebuilding support in Mt Kenya may become increasingly difficult if Gachagua succeeds in consolidating anti-government sentiment across key parts of the region.

For the opposition, however, the challenge is more delicate. Coalition leaders must decide how much weight Gachagua's electoral influence should carry when negotiating a joint presidential ticket and a power-sharing arrangement capable of keeping the coalition intact.

Ol Kalou produced only one Member of Parliament, but it may have reshaped the politics of the 2027 presidential race.

The question facing the opposition is no longer whether Rigathi Gachagua will have a seat at the negotiating table. It is how much influence he will wield when the coalition finally settles on the candidate to challenge President William Ruto.