Which way Western Kenya? Region could decide 2027 poll or remain sleeping giant

As Kenya edges closer to the 2027 General Election, Western Kenya has once again emerged as a decisive political battleground. With more than 2.6 million registered voters across Kakamega, Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga, and Trans Nzoia counties, the region has enough numerical weight to influence a presidential contest. Yet, despite its potential, Western Kenya approaches the next election deeply fragmented, internally divided, and uncertain about converting its numbers into lasting national power.

For decades, the region has played kingmaker without kingship—courted during campaigns but rarely rewarded with the highest offices. Political observers argue that 2027 will again test whether Western Kenya can bargain collectively or see its vote scattered across competing interests.

Historically, the region stood firmly behind the late Raila Odinga from 2007, forming a core pillar of the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). That alignment delivered millions of votes over successive elections. However, the 2022 General Election dramatically disrupted this tradition. Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula shifted a sizeable portion of the Western vote to President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza coalition, securing key government positions for themselves.

But halfway through Ruto’s term, that political settlement is showing strain.

“The 2027 election will test whether voters in the region can vote as one bloc or scatter again and lose national influence,” says political analyst David Owino.

At the centre of the recalibration are Mudavadi and Wetang’ula. While both occupy senior government positions, analysts say their independent political capital has weakened. Mudavadi’s decision to dissolve the Amani National Congress (ANC) into Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) removed a critical bargaining tool. Supporters cite his seniority as Prime Cabinet Secretary, but critics argue negotiating without a party base limits leverage.

Wetang’ula faces a different challenge. As Speaker, he holds a powerful office, but it could become vulnerable if coalition negotiations lead to a redistribution of parliamentary positions—a risk heightened by ongoing talks between UDA and ODM on a possible pre-election arrangement.

“With ODM back in play and negotiating from a position of strength, the leverage of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula is diminishing,” Owino notes.

Underlying the region’s unease is dissatisfaction with the 2022 pre-election deal, which promised 30 per cent of government resources, Cabinet and ambassadorial positions. While Mudavadi’s and Wetang’ula’s appointments were fulfilled, many residents argue the broader bargain has yet to translate into tangible development.

“There was an understanding that Western Kenya would feel the impact of being in government, but beyond individual appointments, people are still waiting,” says Fabian Amugune, a civic leader in Vihiga.

This frustration has intensified calls for the Deputy Presidency in 2027—a symbol of recognition and influence. At the Maragoli Cultural Festival, leaders allied to Mudavadi urged Ruto to consider a Western Kenya leader as running mate.

“Our son Mudavadi is capable of being Deputy President, and he deserves the post,” Vihiga Woman Representative Beatrice Adagala said.

Kakamega Deputy Governor Ayub Savula, (pictured, below) insisted that the region remains united at the grassroots. “We have come together as parties to ensure the region votes for the government. Proximity to power will gel the community and ensure a bloc vote,” he said.

Malava MP David Ndakwa framed the demand as strategic: “2027 is about deputising; 2032 is about leading.”

For President Ruto, Western Kenya presents both opportunity and risk. Following a fallout with former Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, relations with sections of Mount Kenya have cooled, prompting a reassessment of electoral strategy. Names frequently mentioned for the Deputy Presidency include Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, and Cooperatives Cabinet Secretary Wycliffe Oparanya, with leaders arguing that their support is crucial to Ruto’s re-election.

However, some analysts question whether Western Kenya still wields leverage. Lawyer Moses Ombayo says, “The Deputy President in 2027 might come from ODM unless something changes. Western Kenya has lost ground and should focus on 2032 rather than overplaying its hand.”

Fragmentation remains the region’s biggest weakness. Leaders such as DAP-K’s Eugene Wamalwa, Mumias East MP Peter Salasya, and Busia Senator Okiya Omtatah have hinted at presidential ambitions, splintering the vote. Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has further disrupted traditional hierarchies, exposing generational and ideological rifts.

“If Natembeya can bring together Mudavadi, Wetang’ula, and Oparanya, then unity is possible,” Ombayo says.

Western Kenya is also a target for the emerging United Opposition, led by Rigathi Gachagua, Fred Matiang’i, Kalonzo Musyoka, Eugene Wamalwa, and Justin Muturi. While courting the region aggressively, the absence of a clear presidential flag bearer raises doubts about consolidation.

Analysts predict the Western vote may once again favour an “outsider,” guided less by identity than by access to power and promises of inclusion—unless the region finally finds the unity it has long sought.