Ruto allies on edge as UDA-ODM deal rocks 2027 election plans

 Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula played a key role in swinging huge votes to the ruling Kenya Kwanza Alliance. [File, Standard]

Several political players close to President William Ruto’s inner circle are feeling the heat as the political cooperation between the ruling United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) gains momentum.

The Standard has established that anxiety has gripped some of the president’s allies from regions where ODM commands major support, as the possibility of a dramatic shift in the president’s point men begins to hit home.

The deal spells trouble for some former political heavyweights struggling to secure a place in Ruto’s reelection campaign, with shifting alliances and emerging interests threatening their political futures.

Beyond reshaping alliances and power dynamics ahead of the 2027 General Election, several political leaders are poised to emerge as losers. If sealed and sustained, the pact between Ruto’s UDA and Senator Oburu Oginga-led ODM could redraw political fault lines across key regions, including Western Kenya, Gusii, the Coast and Central Kenya.

With many UDA and ODM leaders still nursing deep-rooted rivalries and regional supremacy battles, observers say it would take a miracle for them to cooperate without overshadowing one another, even as they aim to deliver a smooth path for Ruto’s reelection.“There are going to be losers, especially those who had taken hard-line positions against ODM. It will affect those who did not give reconciliation a chance,” argues political pundit Clifford Obiero.

Some leaders, however, are struggling for relevance and risk being sidelined by the robust campaign structures the ODM brigade is introducing, structures that align closely with Ruto’s vision. Obiero notes that ODM governors supporting Ruto’s reelection already have established campaign structures and can mobilize more effectively in perceived ODM strongholds than some of Ruto’s existing allies.

The potential impact is most pronounced in vote-rich Western Kenya. Traditionally a stronghold of the late Raila Odinga since 2007, the region shifted in 2022 when Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula played a key role in swinging huge votes to the ruling Kenya Kwanza Coalition.

But with ODM now entering the race, the influence Mudavadi and Wetang’ula previously wielded in Western Kenya appears to be diminishing ahead of 2027. Mudavadi’s decision to dissolve the Amani National Congress (ANC) party and join UDA has weakened his independent influence in the region.

While some allies had suggested him as a possible running mate for Ruto, ODM’s entry into government reshuffles the political deck, putting so-called Western Kenya kingpins at a disadvantage.

“With ODM likely to negotiate from a position of strength, Western figures like Wycliffe Oparanya will inevitably command a bigger seat at the table ahead of Mudavadi and Wetang’ula,” observes political analyst David Owino. “Without a party of his own, Mudavadi loses bargaining power in a coalition where party strength matters.” The same pressure looms over Wetang’ula, whose role as Speaker could be challenged if ODM pushes for strategic parliamentary seats as part of the deal. Analysts note that ODM has the numbers and experience to make a credible claim for such positions.

“Mudavadi and Wetang’ula abandoned Raila after the 2017 election, citing broken promises under NASA,” Owino adds. “They delivered Western Kenya to Ruto in 2022, but politics has moved on. With ODM back in play, their leverage is clearly diminishing.”

Already, governors Fernandes Barasa (Kakamega), Paul Otuoma (Busia), and Wilber Ottichilo (Vihiga) have teamed up to drive Ruto’s reelection campaign in the region alongside other UDA operatives. With ODM commanding support in the three counties, it remains to be seen how Wetang’ula and Mudavadi will weave themselves into the equation.

Similarly, in Gusii, UDA chief whip Sylvanus Osoro, who had positioned himself as Ruto’s point man in the region, faces a daunting task. The entry of ODM Deputy Party Leader Simba Arati, whose mobilization skills were crucial in helping Raila maintain support in the last General Elections, complicates matters.

The two leaders have had a frosty relationship; during the 2022 campaigns, they even fought in public after Osoro attempted to grab a microphone from Arati. With the 2027 General Election clock ticking, observers believe Arati is better placed to lead campaigns for Ruto and challenge former Cabinet Secretary Fred Matiang’i in the region.

The proposed pact could also unsettle the wider Kenya Kwanza coalition. Speculation is rife that the Deputy President’s slot in 2027 may no longer be guaranteed to the current holder, Prof Kithure Kindiki, from Central Kenya, or to leaders from Western Kenya as previously rumoured. ODM stalwarts are reportedly pushing for the Deputy Presidency as part of the deal.