Gen Zs need more than numbers to transform Kenya's defective society

Anti-finance bill protestors along Digo road in Mombasa County on Tuesday 2nd July 2024. The protests turned chaotic. [Kelvin Karani, Standard]

It is amazing how things can change so quickly. Who would have imagined the country’s political class would be scampering for safety, away from their ordinary self-entitlements?

How can they refuse a 'deserved' salary increment and instead champion a salary cut? This was contrary to their unanimity in greed as Kenyans have known them.

There seems to be a consensus. among the general populace. that the drastic disruptions of the country’s socio-political order were unforeseeable.

However, for those who have cared enough to track changes in the country’s demographics and wealth disparities, the events of these past few days were not completely unexpected.

The questions left in the minds of many are: Will the Gen-Zs sustain the potent power they have demonstrated to transform our bad political culture? And, will the political elites learn from this newly-found Damascus moment?

It is without a doubt that our youthful population has the numbers to push through whatever agenda they may desire within our society.

As per the 2019 census, those aged between 15 -39 years were 12.8 million. This would constitute the population in the quantum that we now call Gen-Zs and Millennials.

The population aged between 40-80+ years was 6.3 million. By the 2027 elections, an estimated 3 million in the quantum we are calling Gen-Alpha will be eligible to vote from the age category 10 -14 years.

Based on these numbers only, it would appear that young people can put into power whomever they may elect to support.

It is on this basis that all opportunistic political and professional elites seem to be dancing to the tunes of the ongoing Gen-Z wave.

Anyone with a contrary view appears to be an alien. Unfortunately, the elites among the Gen-Zs appear to have fallen into the trap of power hubris after their moment of victory on the night of June 25.

As I indicated in my article last Saturday, democracy comes with a heavy responsibility. Equally, power demands magnanimity on the part of those who wield it if it is to be of benefit to society.

While the Gen-Zs insist they have no leadership, they confuse structured positions with leadership. The basic definition of a leader is anyone who can influence a group of people towards a certain direction or course. Based on this attribute, then it is not true they have no leadership.

If this is true, then, there is evidential fallout and claims of sell-outs on the battlefield where the war against the government was planned before execution on the streets.

Also, it would appear the mission was not universally clear to all. This would explain why it has been so easy to infiltrate the street protests and deviate the movement from its noble agenda of fighting for their economic rights and against bad governance. 

Politically incorrect

At the risk of being politically incorrect, I share interesting research insights on what it takes to transform a society.

After all, this column was never designed to propagate popular opinion but to bring to bear unimpeachable evidence for decision-making that benefits society.

For context, in an article in The East African on August 14, 2022, Jakaya Kikwete, the head of the East Africa Community observer mission on Kenya’s General Election, is quoted to have lamented about low voter turnout. Only 65 per cent of the 22.12 registered voters turnout to vote. This was the lowest voter turnout in 15 years.

In their preliminary report, Kikwete explains the reasons for this outcome to include lack of voter education, low interest of the youth (read Gen-Zs and Millennials), reduced trust and confidence in the political system, and poverty and youth unemployment.

Change behaviour 

It is these reasons, explaining low voter turnout, that take us to the crust of the matter in this article today.

In a joint study by the University of Maine, the University of Vermont and Universite Laval in Quebec, Canada, the researchers found that societies do not change their behaviours as easily, even when the change is for the good of that very society.

The main study question was on how to get good solutions to scale up for major change in society. The researchers utilised mathematical models that combine epidemiological and evolutionary techniques in their estimations.

The findings, published on April 1, 2022, suggest that social change may depend on the relationship between beneficial behaviour and policies.

Thus, the right behaviour has to be given the right conditions to spread virally. However, this does not happen if the institutional costs are too high.

Some of the key factors that determine the success of the change process are the quantum of adopters and non-adopters, the diffusion behaviour both within and outside the group, the strength of the institutions supporting the behaviour and facilitating its spread, and the cost of those institutions.

The study concludes that large-scale change in society is not just about behaviour or policy, but the emergence of a new self-reinforcing system that combines both.

Thus, given what has happened in Kenya in the past few days, the question would be: Will the Gen-Z wave of change stick long enough to turn around our socio-cultural and political architecture so that each one of us can pursue our economic rights and freedoms to their highest aspirations?

There is absolutely no doubt that societies change over time, either for the better or worse. While most changes happen in organic and subtle ways, history is replete with momentous moments that have spurred radical changes across different societies.

The Gen-Z movement has ushered us into such a moment. However, several things will have to happen for this wave to stick long enough and sustainably. 

Whatever cost

To start with, the Gen-Zs and millennials will have to avoid, at whatever cost, the trap of the very evils they are fighting. To achieve this, they need a thorough understanding of the battlefield.

Right from independence, our economic and political architecture has been founded on corruption, exploitation, betrayal and hero-worship for those who wield political and economic power.

From the findings of the above-mentioned study, the Gen-Z wave poses huge power costs to our exploitative political institutions.

They are bound to deploy their fraudulently acquired economic power to attempt to dismantle the unity of the Gen-Zs to retain the status quo.

Thus, the Gen-Zs will have to prove they have no price tag to sustain their momentum towards economic freedom.

The second thing is the ability of the Gen-Zs to retain control of the weapons of the war. While it is good to remain formless in their formation in the battle, this will have to be backed by a highly organized, coordinated and focused boardroom war chest.

To argue they need no leaders to achieve their goals is Machiavellian and naïve to the organisation's capacity for the enemy.

Corruption and wheeler-dealing have permeated our socio-economic fabric. The Gen-Zs can claim no sainthood on this either given the rampant exam cheating in their schooling years.

Current wave

Further, it is political handouts and lies that have begotten us the leaders we have in office today. Those championing the current wave of change would have to prove themselves to be different from the rest.

Finally, the Gen-Z leadership must understand that armies are weakest in their moment of victory, and star performers are most vulnerable at their peak.

Whoever they eventually settle on to lead the movement must be of the finest breed the nation can find.

Dancing with the current politicians or those who have served corrupt regimes before would be akin to dancing with the devil himself.