Sifuna, Natembeya inject fresh hope into Luhya politics

Nairobi senator Edwin Sifuna. [File, Standard]

For decades, Western Kenya has been Kenyan politics’ sleeping giant. The Luhya have the second-largest vote after the Kikuyu, enough numbers to decide who goes to State House, but never enough unity to turn numbers into power. Rivalry, selfish ambition and split loyalties have always cost them the crown. The community has historically rallied behind different political camps depending on local interests and individual leaders.

That dominance was long personified by the old guard in the lineage of Masinde Muliro, Elijah Mwangale, Martin Shikuku, Moses Mudavadi and Kijana Wamalwa. In recent years, Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi and National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang’ula, both key allies of President William Ruto, have carried that mantle. The way crowds were electrified following Linda Mwananchi's tour of Western shows how Sifuna has stolen the mojo from other presidential hopefuls.

Governor George Natembeya and Senator Edwin Sifuna have injected fresh hope into Luhya politics for the first time since Kijana Wamalwa. Sifuna, 43, is fearless, street-smart, eloquent in English and Kiswahili, and hardened by Nairobi's rough politics. He carries the passion and tenacity of his mentor Raila Odinga and has shown he can hold his own before any crowd. He gives the Opposition youth energy and a Luhya face without old guard baggage.

Natembeya, former Regional Commissioner, knows how the state works. The Trans Nzoia governor has become one of the government's fiercest critics and pushed his influence well beyond Bungoma and Trans Nzoia, the heartland of his Bukusu sub-tribe. More than a county boss, he is a populist and formidable mobiliser whose message now resonates across Bungoma, Busia, Vihiga and Kakamega.

Sifuna's bid is a litmus test. Will Western finally rally behind one of its own or split again along clan and personal interests? The battle runs through Kakamega, Vihiga, Busia, Bungoma and Trans Nzoia - administratively in Rift Valley but predominantly Bukusu. How they vote will decide Sifuna's fate and whether the long-elusive Luhya unity is possible at last. If it happens, President William Ruto will face a far more cohesive bloc than in 2022. It also raises a tricky question for Luoland, Raila's bedrock. How will it vote if Sifuna carries the Opposition flag while ODM remains in the broad-based government?

Overlooking Sifuna would leave many Luhyas feeling short-changed. The same bitterness would hit Kisii and Kamba if Fred Matiang’i and Kalonzo Musyoka miss the ticket. Such choices risk killing enthusiasm and reopening old wounds. Whether those communities would fully rally behind another candidate is one of the defining questions for 2027. Ruto cannot be written off in Western. He has put money into roads, pushed to revive the ailing sugar industry and rolled out affordable housing. Voters can see it, and many will judge him on what is tangible. The projects are visible, the politics transactional, and the goodwill real. The Opposition must convince them it can do better. Pick a flag-bearer from outside Western and Ruto's fortunes there will rise.

That is why Francis Atwoli's calculations will be watched closely. The COTU boss, blunt as ever, has dismissed Sifuna as lacking the financial muscle to take on Ruto. It is an uncomfortable truth. Money and power are intertwined in Kenya as elsewhere. In America, Elon Musk's billions helped fuel Donald Trump's campaign. In Kenya, Moi's bottomless war chest was decisive in 1992. You cannot wish it away. To face an incumbent who controls the exchequer, you need depth.

However, Atwoli struck a raw nerve when he asked: “How could Sifuna, who still drives himself to funerals in Western, face an incumbent who has never lost an election since 1992, controls the exchequer, the police, and an electoral commission the opposition already considers government-leaning?”

Ruto has never lost since winning Eldoret North in 1997. He has money, a campaign machine and networks countrywide. In 2022, opposition agents were outspent and outmanoeuvred despite Odinga's loyal base and Uhuru's backing. In 2027, the Opposition will need organisation and early mobilisation to compete.

Politics is interests. Sifuna's path to the ticket runs through tough power-sharing talks. He must convince Kalonzo and Matiang'i they will hold real power, not token posts. Kalonzo, 76, sees 2027 as his last chance and will not step aside without guarantees. To deliver Makueni, Machakos and Kitui, and for Matiang'i to lock down Kisii and Nyamira, both must be assured influential roles in a possible Sifuna government.

A Sifuna-Matiang'i ticket is risky. Both come from the western corridor and would leave Central Kenya exposed, yet Central is vital to winning. That is why the flagbearer must be named early. Delay breeds betrayal. Drop Matiang'i and Kisii bristles. Drop Kalonzo and Kamba sulk. Drop Karua and Mt Kenya walks. Drop Sifuna and Luhya bolt to Ruto. The “mtu wetu” mentality reigns supreme in Kenyan politics.

Gachagua and Uhuru Kenyatta must help hold the Opposition together in Mt Kenya. A running mate like Ndindi Nyoro or Irungu Kang'ata would balance Sifuna and pose a threat to Ruto. 2027 will be fiercely fought, but unity is the opposition's lethal arsenal. Without it, 1992 repeats, when Kibaki, Matiba and Jaramogi split the vote and handed Moi victory.

Mr Nyaringo is a Kenyan public affairs commentator and governance advocate based in Washington, US.