History might repeat itself as many candidates line up for 2027 contest

Former Interior CS Fred Matiangi at the Jubilee National Delegates Convention on 26 September 2025. [David Gichuru Standard]

It is observed that history unfolds in cycles with past events recurring in familiar patterns. Nowhere is this more evident than in the political arena, where previous missteps are frequently repeated across generations.

A case in point is the introduction of multi-party democracy in Kenya in 1992. At the time, the sitting president had held power for 14 years and many Kenyans yearned for change through democratic elections.

However, this aspiration was thwarted by a proliferation of opposition candidates, which fragmented the vote and enabled the incumbent to secure an easy victory. A similar miscalculation occurred again in the 1997 elections.

It was not until 2002 that the Opposition altered its strategy. By uniting behind a single, broadly supported candidate, they successfully defeated the incumbent's chosen successor - marking a significant turning point in Kenya's political trajectory.

History appears poised to repeat itself in 2027 as Kenya once again approaches a general election. President William Ruto is expected to confront a formidable array of opposition candidates determined to limit his presidency to a single term.

However, the Opposition remains deeply fragmented, making it improbable that they will unite behind a single contender capable of mounting a serious challenge to Dr Ruto's re-election.

Former Chief Justice David Maraga has formally entered the presidential race, relying heavily on his reputation as a principled and courageous jurist - most notably for his historic annulment of a presidential election due to electoral irregularities. However, he appears politically inexperienced and ill-equipped for the demands of a national campaign.

Lacking the extensive financial and logistical resources typically required, he seems to be placing undue faith in crowdfunding from Generation Z - a demographic with which he shares little cultural or generational affinity.

At best, Maraga's candidature may serve as a mild and somewhat entertaining diversion from the intensity of the presidential contest, reminiscent of previous fringe candidates like Mwalimu Dida or Reggae Man Wajackoyah.

Former Cabinet Secretary (CS) Fred Matiang'i is another potential contender. A firm and uncompromising figure in the previous administration, Dr Matiang'i distinguished himself by restoring order to previously disorganised management of national exams.

However, his tenure as Interior CS was also marked by the emergence of enforced disappearances targeting political dissenters - an issue that may prove difficult to justify, particularly to a Gen Z electorate likely to comprise a significant portion of voters in the 2027 elections.

Former Vice President Kalonzo Musyoka continues to harbour presidential ambitions. As one of the most senior and seasoned politicians, having served in two previous administrations, he commands significant political experience. He is also widely regarded as the de facto leader of the vote-rich Kamba community.

However, since 2013, Mr Kalonzo has repeatedly misjudged the political landscape, effectively relegating his community to the Opposition benches. This time, however, there are indications he may align himself with a formidable contender in a bid to reclaim relevance.

Ruto has faced significant challenges in stabilising the economy. In a bid to alleviate financial pressures on citizens, his administration is pursuing the settlement of outstanding government obligations through a complex securitisation of designated public funds. His prospects for securing a second term in office is predicated on the dalliance with influential opposition figure Raila Odinga holding through 2027.

Mr Khafafa is a public policy analyst