Kenya's AGOA test as Trump reviews Ruto's governance record

President Ruto and Donald Trump during the signing of a peace deal between DRC and Rwanda at the Donald J Trump United States Institute of Peace in Washington, DC. [PCS]

Kenya’s eligibility for duty-free access to the United States (US) market under the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is set for renewed scrutiny, with President Donald Trump administration launching its annual review amid mounting concerns over human rights abuses and pervasive corruption by the President William Ruto administration.

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) on Tuesday formally initiated the 26th annual review of Sub-Saharan African countries’ eligibility for AGOA benefits for calendar year 2027, requesting written comments and scheduling a public hearing for July 23. The review comes months after Trump signed a one-year extension of the trade programme, which had lapsed in September 2025, delivering a reprieve for Kenyan exporters of apparel and textiles who faced punitive tariffs.

Kenya, one of 33 countries currently designated as AGOA beneficiaries, exported $737.3 million (Sh95.1 billion) worth of apparel to the United States under the programme in 2024, supporting an estimated 66,800 direct jobs in the textile sector. But the one-year extension through December 2026 offers only a fragile lifeline, with the eligibility review process threatening to expose Nairobi’s governance shortcomings.

AGOA eligibility requires countries to demonstrate continual progress toward establishing a market-based economy, the rule of law, political pluralism and a system to combat corruption and bribery. Countries that fail to meet these criteria risk having their benefits terminated, suspended or limited.

The Trump administration has signalled it will take a harder line. US officials have put Sub-Saharan African countries on notice over corruption and human rights and emphasised that compliance with AGOA’s rigorous eligibility standards is not optional. Ambassador Jamieson Greer has said the administration will work with Congress to modernise AGOA to align with Trump’s “America First” trade policy.

For 2026, the US President did not designate 16 sub-Saharan African countries as AGOA beneficiaries, many of which were excluded due to governance failures, human rights violations, or political instability. The countries include Burkina Faso, Burundi, Niger, Ethiopia, Sudan, Guinea, Mali, Uganda, Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, Zimbabwe, the Central African Republic, Equatorial Guinea, Seychelles and Cameroon.

Kenya is expected to face intensified examination during this year’s review, with the US embassy in Nairobi having operated without a substantive head for 19 months. The vacancy has complicated diplomatic engagement on sensitive governance issues at a time when Washington is pressing Nairobi on corruption, human rights and democratic accountability.

Kenya’s record on both governance and trade fronts has come under intensifying scrutiny. In its 2026 National Trade Estimate Report, the USTR’s office said Kenya remains a “substantial barrier” to trade and investment, with American firms reporting “direct and indirect requests for bribes from multiple levels of the Kenyan government”. The report highlighted widespread corruption in procurement at both national and county government levels. Kenya ranks 130 out of 180 countries in Transparency International’s latest Corruption Perceptions Index.

Human rights concerns have also escalated. The US State Department has expressed concern over a “deteriorating” human rights situation in Kenya, citing claims of unlawful killings, enforced disappearances, torture, and restrictions on media freedoms.

The governance concerns extend beyond AGOA. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has told President William Ruto-led government that it cannot proceed with negotiations for a new financial programme until the government responds to a long-delayed corruption diagnostic report, effectively freezing access to fresh IMF resources at a time of mounting fiscal pressure.

For Kenya’s textile sector, which directly employs over 66,800 people and supports thousands more indirectly, the review comes at a critical time. The one-year AGOA extension expires on December 31, 2026, and without renewal or a finding of continued eligibility, Kenyan exports would face tariffs of up to 10 per cent, making them less competitive against rivals from Asia and other regions.

The USTR is accepting written comments until July 13, with a public hearing scheduled for July 23 in Washington. The AGOA Implementation Subcommittee of the Trade Policy Staff Committee will consider written and oral testimony in developing its recommendations on country eligibility.

For now, Kenyan exporters and 66,000 textile workers face an anxious wait.