Kenyans face pain at the pump as Trump targets Venezuela oil

Members of the South African Communist Party during a protest against the US operation in Venezuela that resulted in the capture of President Nicolas Maduro, outside the US Embassy in Pretoria on January 8, 2026. [AFP]

US President Donald Trump threw the world into a spin following last Saturday’s capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro but has further upped the ante by seizing two oil tankers linked to the South American country, including a Russian flagged vessel that was also being escorted by a Russian submarine. 

While the focus has been on Washington, Moscow and Beijing, the impact of Trump’s actions could have a far reaching impact on Africa. 

As a net oil importer, Kenya is highly sensitive to global crude prices and analysts see a possible short term spike in the cost of fuel but a likely drop in pump prices in the long term as increased production from the South American country floods the global market. 

Following the capture of Maduro last Saturday, there was a slight spike in the cost of crude, which analysts termed as a brief knee jerk jump but prices have since stabilized.  The increase is unlikely to reflect on Kenyan pump prices for February when stocks acquired this month will be sold in the local market.

In the long term, however, if the US successfully fixes “the badly broken (oil) infrastructure” in Venezuela as President Trump said, it could increase oil supply in the global market and possibly push global prices toward $50 per barrel, according to global oil industry experts.

Venezuela has the world’s largest proven crude oil reserves at 303 billion barrels, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), ahead of Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion. The country’s oil is however said to be heavy and sour and can only be processed in a few of the world’s refineries. 

Increased production that could in turn lower crude oil prices might lower Kenya’s import bill should this benefit be passed to Kenyans. Petroleum products are Kenya’s largest import bill, which stood at Sh575.5 billion in 2024 and accounting for 20.5 per cent of the total import bill that stood at Sh2.8 trillion.

Analysts at US financial services firm Morgan Stanley noted that prices gained on the first trading day after the US intervention, as markets weighed the near-term risks of production disruptions in Venezuela as well as the prospect of higher output over the medium term. 

“The political upheaval could lead to additional output losses in the short term, however the global oil market is likely oversupplied already, so that can probably be absorbed without too much price impact,” says Martin Rats, Morgan Stanley’s Global Commodity Strategist and Head of European Energy Research.

Aside from the raid in Venezuela and how it might drive the global cost of oil, Kenya is also set to experience the full weight of this week’s Trump’s actions. On January 7, the US said it had withdrawn from 66 international organisations, including 31 UN entities and another 35 non-UN groups, some of them headquartered in Kenya while many of them have been running programmes using Kenya as a regional hub.

The twin hits of intervening in Venezuela and withdrawal of funding to key UN and non-UN humanitarian agencies are coming an year after Trump issued an order in January 2025 halting direct foreign assistance and later disbanding USaid.  

The move hit numerous projects in Kenya that are funded by the US government. The American government had for years been funding many projects varying from health, including HIV/Aids, to security, energy, agriculture and startups in Kenya through its agencies including USAid.

Data by the US shows that it disbursed to Kenya Sh84 billion ($647.2 million) in 2024 in foreign assistance, which is largely aid and grants.

The US claimed that the money has been funding an NGO industrial complex rather than to the intended use including helping people in need.