Kenya looks to China's duty-free access after Agoa pact expires

Chinese Ambassador to Kenya Guo Haiyan speaking during a past press briefing in April 2025. [Wilberforce Okwiri,Standard]

China has pledged to work with Kenya to ensure the swift implementation of zero-tariff trade treatment, a crucial move that offers Kenyan exporters a potential new lifeline and market access just as uncertainty clouds the future of a key trade pact with the United States.

The commitment was made by Chinese Ambassador Guo Haiyan during a National Day reception in Nairobi on Monday, where she promised to work with Kenya to ensure the zero-tariff measures take effect "at an early date so that our peoples can benefit sooner from our cooperation."

The pledge aligns with a commitment President Xi Jinping made in June to expand zero-tariff treatment for 100 per cent of tariff lines for 53 African countries, including Kenya, that maintain diplomatic ties with Beijing under the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation (FOCAC).

Prime Cabinet Secretary and Cabinet Secretary for Foreign and Diaspora Affairs Musalia Mudavadi confirmed a Kenyan delegation is already negotiating the technical framework with the Chinese government.

"We hope that in another a few weeks' time, we shall be able to report progress indicating that we have struck a deal within the free preferential trade arrangements," Mudavadi said at the reception, calling the arrangement "critical for us, critical for Africa."

The push for a swift zero-tariff deal with China comes at a pivotal time for Kenyan exporters, particularly those in the textile, apparel, and horticulture sectors, who are seeking market diversification.

The future of the US African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) remains uncertain as its expiration date looms today (September 30th) , threatening the duty-free status of Kenyan goods in the US.

The zero-tariff treatment is seen by Nairobi as a strategic opening to a massive consumer base that would buffer any economic impact from unfavorable changes to the AGOA status.

Mudavadi underscored the strategic importance of this shift, directly tying it to the shifting global landscape.

"We are seeing a lot of volatility in the trading arena," Mudavadi noted, adding that in the face of "the kind of geopolitics we are seeing, the geoeconomics we are seeing, the geotechnologies we are seeing," Africa requires "predictable, reliable, consistent, trade arrangements with its partners."

He also used the opportunity to reinforce the importance of multilateral cooperation, echoing a core message from Beijing: "The place for multilateralism is becoming even more important. A strong message that will continue to send the signal that the absence of multilateralism is dangerous for humanity is extremely central at this point in time." 

The zero-tariff treatment is a trade preference that would allow nearly all goods manufactured or produced in Kenyato be exported to China without incurring any import duties.  

For Kenyan exporters, this means enhanced competitiveness.

Eliminating China's average import tariff—which stands at around 10 per cent on some key primary Kenyan products—instantly makes Kenyan goods like specialty tea, coffee, nuts, handicrafts, and mineral products cheaper and more attractive to Chinese importers. 

The agreement provides a crucial hedge as the US AGOA pact faces an uncertain renewal, offering a vital alternative to sustain export-led growth. 

The urgency for Kenya is underlined by the widening trade deficit.  

In 2023, China was Kenya's largest source of imports, valued at approximately Sh459 billion (around $3.12 billion) while Kenya’s total exports to China stood at just Sh29 billion (around $197 million).  

This pact is designed to open the Chinese market to African goods, directly addressing this imbalance. 

Ambassador Guo Haiyan’s comments framed the deal as part of China’s evolution into a global economic power ready to share prosperity.

The Ambassador reinforced that China's commitment to reform remains "unwavering, with its door open even wider."

She highlighted China's economic transformation, stating, "Evolving from world factory to world market, from manufacturing major to innovation hub, China’s economy has achieved both quantitative expansion and qualitative improvement," and stood ready to "inject strong impetus into the world economy."

She directly pitched China as a partner for opportunity: "Embracing China is embracing opportunities, believing in China is believing in a better tomorrow, and investing in China is investing in the future."

Furthermore, the Ambassador spoke to the broader geopolitical tension, reaffirming China's multilateral stance: "The world today is overshadowed by the dark clouds of Cold War mentality, hegemonism and protectionism."

She asserted that China will always stand ready to "safeguard world peace, contribute to global development and preserve international order." The zero-tariff trade deal is presented as a concrete example of this vision in action.