UhuRuto talks: Strategic move or sign of weakness in Kenya Kwanza?

In what political commentators are describing as a bold political maneuver, President William Ruto is strategically reshaping Kenya’s political landscape as he lays the foundation for both his first-term legacy and his 2027 re-election bid.

His recent outreach to former political rivals, including fourth President Uhuru Kenyatta and opposition leader Raila Odinga, has sparked speculation about his intentions and the future of Kenyan politics.

This outreach, which since 2018 has been receiving the moniker "handshake," is widely seen as an attempt to forge a broad coalition that could secure Ruto’s political future and cement his hold over the country’s power structures, according to political analysts.

While State House frames the engagement as a push for a “broader and more inclusive political consensus” to drive national development, Uhuru’s own statement after the talks adopted a more cautious tone, emphasizing political tensions, taxation, and security concerns. The contrasting messages from the two leaders have fueled speculation about the true nature of their partnership.

"President Uhuru Kenyatta laid emphasis on specific areas that he felt are crucial in stabilizing the country. Top among these issues are, transparency and accountability," Uhuru said in a statement sent by his spokesperson Kanze Dena

Sports Cabinet Secretary Kipchumba Murkomen, in defense of Ruto, attributed much of the criticism to tribal bias. Speaking at a graduation ceremony in Kericho County, Murkomen argued that comparisons to former President Daniel Arap Moi, a fellow Kalenjin, were unfair. “It is wrong that critics, especially from the church and media, attack Ruto on tribal grounds rather than his policies,” Murkomen said.

Murkomen’s remarks came days before Ruto was expected to fill vacant Cabinet positions, including principal and cabinet secretaries. “ODM wants the position, and Jubilee will also be given some in the spirit of the two handshakes,” a high placed source at State House said yesterday, adding that ongoing discussions would shape Kenya’s political future.

However, critics like Communist Party of Kenya vice-chairperson Booker Ngesa and former Nyeri MP Ngunjiri Wambugu argue that Ruto’s alliance with Uhuru and Raila signals instability within his ranks.

Wambugu pointed to the divergent statements from the two leaders as evidence of a lack of trust, despite their long political histories. “The two don’t trust each other, and that’s why they issued different statements,” he said.

Some view Ruto’s political reshuffling as a tactical move to preserve power rather than a genuine effort to address national issues. “Ruto is focused on consolidating power, not solving the country’s problems,” said Ngesa. “While ordinary Kenyans struggle with rising costs and unemployment, Ruto's priority is securing his political future.”

Nominated Senator Sabina Chege, however, yesterday told The Standard that Ruto’s outreach to seasoned political figures like Uhuru may stem from a genuine desire to fulfill his campaign promises.

She said, similar to ODM, opposition parties and Uhuru would be allocated key positions. “Uhuru has shown he has experience,” Chege noted. “Ruto’s goal is to calm political tensions, focus on development, and reform institutions like the IEBC.” However, she also acknowledged that new political alliances could emerge as the 2027 elections draw closer, making the political landscape unpredictable.

Contrasting messages from the two leaders have fueled speculation about the true nature of their partnership. [File, Standard]

Wiper Party leader Kalonzo Musyoka on Sunday said Ruto should step down if another round of protests started, urging the army and police to prepare for potential protests.

“If the next maandamano comes to chase the winds of lies, winds that despise the church… I advise the army and police … if you see things are bad, tell Ruto to leave,” said Kalonzo describing president Ruto as a one term president.

Critics, however, argue that Ruto’s focus is less on national unity and more on preserving his own political interests. “This realignment is about maintaining the grip on power,” Ngesa said. “It does nothing for the average citizen.”

Ruto’s efforts to rebuild ties with Uhuru, a key figure in the Mount Kenya region, face considerable challenges. Ngunjiri believes that historical tensions and lingering resentment will make it difficult for Ruto to regain the region’s support. “Uhuru will not bring Mount Kenya back to Ruto,” Ngunjiri said. “Even Gachagua won’t, because of the history of ‘madharau.’”

Despite these challenges, State House insists that the goal of the meeting was to foster political consensus and promote inclusive growth.

In a joint statement, both Ruto and Uhuru acknowledged the importance of addressing key national issues such as political stability, taxation, and security.

However, many question whether the coalition is truly about national development or if it’s merely a tactic to suppress opposition ahead of the next election.

While Ruto frames the political realignment as a move to create a more inclusive government, critics argue that the reshuffle primarily serves the interests of the political elite. 

The reshuffle has raised concerns that Ruto is more focused on consolidating power than addressing the concerns of ordinary citizens.

Nominated Senator Sabina Chege says Ruto’s outreach to seasoned political figures like Uhuru may stem from a genuine desire to fulfill his campaign promises. [File, Standard]

According to a State House statement after Ruto’s meeting with Uhuru, the president emphasized the need for a “broader and more inclusive political consensus” aimed at accelerating national development and promoting unity.

The inclusion of Raila, alongside Uhuru, was presented as a way to unite the country after years of political division.

However, despite the rhetoric of unity, critics contend that the coalition is designed to safeguard the political elite's wealth and power. Ngesa, along with others, believes that the changes in government are primarily about preserving the status quo rather than addressing the urgent challenges facing ordinary Kenyans.

The fallout between Ruto and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua has also fueled tensions in Mount Kenya, once a solid political base for Ruto. Ngesa views this as an indication that political dynamics in the region are shifting. “Ruto expects to win Mount Kenya and ODm strongholds through Uhuru and Raila. Times have changed and now people believe in new leaders," Ngesa said.

Ruto seems to be avoiding the tough issues that have caused frustration in Mount Kenya,” Ngesa said, citing economic challenges like unemployment and rising living costs, as well as the perception that the government has not done enough to address the region’s development needs.

Sabina (Chege) noted that the reshuffled government would likely include figures from other parties, including those fronted by Uhuru, after ODM joined the government.

“Uhuru knows something Ruto will learn,” she said. “We want to help the country, and that is why we are coming together as leaders from different parties or coalitions.” She also highlighted that Ruto reached out to Uhuru for support in Raila’s bid for the African Union (AU) Commission Chairperson position, signaling a desire for broader political cooperation.

Despite the apparent unity among the three top political figures, critics like Ngesa argue that the realignment is a strategic move to silence opposition and secure Mount Kenya’s votes for Ruto in the 2027 elections. “These two handshakes are a deliberate effort to silence opposition while securing support from Mount Kenya,' Ngesa remarked.