Ruto, Raila alliance sparks wave of political realignment at the Coast

Former CS Aisha Jumwa, Former Mombasa Governor Hassan Joho and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi flanked by  other Coastal leaders during a press briefing in Nairobi on October 19, 2023 after a meeting to discuss development issues. [File, Standard]

The Coast region is in the throes of political realignment following the rapprochement between President William Ruto and ODM leader Raila Odinga.

The erstwhile political foes are teaming up and former allies are engaged in intense battles as both try to find a bearing following the Ruto-Raila pact that saw key opposing leaders join the government.

Meanwhile, the jostling in the local politics of the six counties appears to benefit President Ruto as a key political figure who ensured that the Coast was Raila’s bastion for three decades, now thronging to the UDA side.

Mining, Blue Economy and Maritime Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, his Investment counterpart Salim Mvurya, and Senate Speaker Amason Kingi who jealously guarded the turf for Raila are on Ruto’s side.

Political analysts argue that if Joho, Mvurya, and Kingi remain on Ruto’s side in the next election, the Coast is likely to flip to United Democratic Alliance (UDA). Joho has vowed that he will make sure he is in government after the 2027 polls.

In Mombasa, Joho and UDA acting Secretary-General Hassan Omar have closed ranks, indicating a possible new lineup ahead of the 2027 polls.

But, Omar is a fierce critic of Mombasa Governor and ODM Deputy Party Leader Abdulswamad Nassir and has vowed to unseat him in the 2027 election.

Nyali MP Mohamed Ali, who campaigned for Ruto alongside Omar, has also declared his interest in the governorship, and he has fallen out with his former allies in UDA who have opted for Joho.

In Kilifi, former Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa is campaigning to unseat Governor Gideon Mung’aro of ODM. She has been sidelined by other UDA leaders like Kilifi North MP Owen Baya, who is close to Mung’aro.

Recently, Baya slammed Jumwa, saying she is ruining the county’s progress by launching campaigns against Mung’aro. “You were given a job, you did not perform, and you were fired so you should stay away and let the governor work for his people,” said Baya.

The new alliance between Ruto and Raila would have an impact on Kwale county politics, where Governor Fatuma Achani has benefited from the push from the President andMvurya.

Currently, her main rivals, Prof Hamadi Boga of ODM and Lung’anzi Chai of Pamoja African Alliance are in an uneasy alliance with a focus on 2027.

It is unclear whether Prof Boga will get the backing of Raila and Joho as he did in 2022 following the new political development in the country and the Coast region.

Pwani University don Halim Shauri says the converging interests between the two top leaders is a roadmap to the 2027 polls.

He observes that with the pact, Ruto has had a political lifeline after the Gen Z threats that came even before completing his second term in office.

According to Prof Shauri, Ruto is focusing on winning the second term in 2027 even with the new development in Central Kenya politics and other shifting interests.

“Ruto now has Raila and Mudavadi in his fold. There is a constitutional requirement that a presidential candidate must win in at least 25 counties out of the 47.

‘‘With Joho and Mvurya, Ruto expects to win many votes in the six coastal counties,” he noted.

Political analyst Prof Hassan Mwakimako opined that Joho and Mvurya will bolster Ruto’s political agenda for the 2027 polls if the Cabinet secretaries succeed in their dockets.

Lawyer Abubakar Yusuf said the settlement of squatters through buying land from absentee landlords and creating jobs for the youth must be fulfilled for the arrangement to attract votes in the next polls.

“This union between Ruto and Raila will even succeed more if the promises made to the people of the Coast region are met,” he said.