Who are the possible beneficiaries of DP Gachagua's troubles?

Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua. [DPCS] 

As the senate considers a censure motion against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua, the political arena will no doubt be flooded with speculation on who are the likely beneficiaries were he to leave the DP office. 

Tana River Senator Danson Mungatana yesterday filed a censure motion with the office of the Speaker of the Senate.

Mungatana argues that the DP has engaged in divisive politics and betrayed his oath of office among others.

Should the senate censure Gachagua, the National Assembly will have ease moving an impeachment motion against him. That will leave President William Ruto with the task of finding a replacement. 

With the president having publicly hinted at having a woman as his running mate in 2027, names like that of Homa Bay Governor Gladys Wanga and her Kirinyaga counterpart Ann Waiguru have been whispered in various quotas. 

There is a growing perception that some powerful forces with the president’s UDA party are fronting Interior Cabinet Secretary Kithure Kindiki as the perfect replacement. 

Political commentator Andrew Nyabuto told The Standard yesterday that President Ruto’s succession game revolves around Governor Waiguru, who is doing her second term, CS Kindiki or Kiharu MP Ndindi Nyoro in Central Kenya. 

In the run up to the 2022 General Election, Kindiki and Gachagua were caught up in a dicey running mate duel that caused a major split in the house of UDA. 

After a protracted battle, President Ruto announced Gachagua as his preferred running mate, much to the chagrin of many politicians from Central Kenya who had vouched for Kindiki. 

Hours before the announcement, the then Tharaka Nithi Senator was about to be crowned, but tables turned when the Kenya Kwanza power-sharing deal was made public, triggering a wave of discontent from among Ruto’s allies from Mt Kenya. 

The uproar resulted from revelations that 30 per cent of the government had been allocated to Western Kenya, with no mention of what Mt Kenya was to get, despite its loyalty and the expected avalanche of votes. 

It was then believed that Kindiki’s candidacy would have irked the larger Mt Kenya region, given that he hails from Tharaka Nithi County, which accounted for 235,000 voters, according to the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) figures, which were not verified by then. 

The figure translates to 0.4 per cent of the 5.85 million votes from Mt Kenya region. Gachagua, on the other hand, was from Nyeri County, which has 494,839 votes going by the same figures.  

He was from the larger Kikuyu Community, which contributes about 4.5 million votes to the entire Mt Kenya region and Mt Kenya diaspora basket. 

Nyabuto observes that following Ruto’s rapprochement with ODM leader Raila Odinga he would also be looking at Governor Wanga’s name. 

“Waiguru and Wanga are the two possible women candidates for President Ruto’s running mate slot, in case he was to go by his hint of having a woman deputy president,” he said. 

Nyabuto added; “On the other front, the elevation of Kindiki to the position of Mt Kenya regional kingpin by forces allied to Ruto indicates that he is considering picking him as a running mate in case he drops Gachagua.” 

Political strategist Julius Kariuki said Ruto will have a difficult time replacing Gachagua with another person “due to power politics in Mt Kenya region where the DP is evolving as the dominant political force.”

Kariuki said there was perception in Mt Kenya region that Kenya Kwanza administration had failed in its mandate and was resorting to undermining the DP president to cover up on its failures. 

“Even those leaders and residents of Mt Kenya region who were previously opposed to Mr Gachagua are now talking favourably about him due to the issues he has been raising about the need for the government to deliver on its pledges to voters,” Kariuki added. 

Kariuki added that instigating divisions amongst Mt Kenya East and Mt Kenya West would flop as residents regarded themselves as one people. 

On the other hand, Kariuki said that there were sections of Raila’s support bases in Nyanza, Nairobi, Western and Coast regions who were angered by his move to work with President Ruto at a time the country was experiencing enormous economic and political challenges. 

The political strategist added that President Ruto would also face a political backlash from Western Kenya support base in case he was to bypass Prime Cabinet Sectary Musalia Mudavadi in favour of Wanga for the DP slot.