Grand reunion in the cards as Ruto penetrates opposition areas

Azimio leader Raila Odinga was hosted by Prime Cabinet Secretary Musalia Mudavadi at a preparatory meeting towards the launch of his bid for the Africa Union Commission Chairmanship campaign on Aug 20, 2024. [Emmanuel Wanson, Standard]

Fresh political clouds are gathering in ODM leader Raila Odinga’s political enclaves of Nyanza, Western, and Coast regions as his reunion with President William Ruto entrenches Kenya Kwanza’s support in opposition zones.

The realignments have ushered in a debate on the prospects of President Ruto inheriting Raila’s support bases as the experienced opposition leader shifts his attention to continental politics.

Observers believe the recent events taking place in opposition zones could be a sign the ODM leader could be tactfully handing over his support bases to President Ruto.

It is a realignment that has brought together political brothers with a long history of working together but with intermittent pauses as they pursued personal political goals.

In the last few weeks following the formation of the broad-based government, however, the duo appears to be rewriting the script and are building a mega political force akin to the 2006 Pentagon that was assembled by Raila. The team had key influential leaders from key voting blocs in their formation.

In the current context, however, analysts believe the ODM leader is slowly handing over his key support bases of Western, Nyanza, and the Coast to Ruto, and has given the president the green light to infiltrate his support bases.

They claim the regions where Raila enjoys a lot of support will feel the biggest impact of the collaboration between ODM and Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza with an implication on the 2027 General Election.

Constitutional lawyer Joshua Nyamori says with the CS appointments and the new energy of the government on Raila’s bid to be the AUC chairman, Ruto is coming into a different Nyanza.

According to him, Raila’s supporters have embraced the president and are looking for a long-term relationship.

He thinks Raila is handing over to Ruto because he is not running for the presidency but going for the AUC seat.

“In that meeting and press conference, Raila indicated that he is exiting the political scene. The question is where will his people go? When you listen to the ground, the ground is shifting towards Ruto,” Nyamori says.

He believes Raila is showing his supporters the way.

As the changes unfold, the traditional anti-government rhetoric and disdain against Kenya Kwanza’s policies from Raila allies and supporters are dying out and have been replaced by praises for Ruto’s administration and his broad-based government with Raila.

This is happening as the president steps up his bid to win over support for his administration in areas that have been firmly supporting the ODM leader. His tactic; political appointments, projects, and working tours.

In the three regions, Raila has gifted Ruto with the top brass of his party and regional leaders of influence to serve Kenya Kwanza administration. They include his two former deputies Hassan Joho and Wycliffe Oparanya, his former party chairman John Mbadi, and former Secretary of Political Affairs Opiyo Wandayi, who have joined Ruto’s cabinet.

The four were among the front-runners to succeed Raila in the underground succession race in the opposition that had been simmering in ODM long before Raila and Ruto agreed to a political deal to form a broad-based government.

Similarly, in Nyanza, Raila’s lieutenants led by his brother Oburu Oginga and governors from the region have embarked on a push to rally the region to support the newly formed broad-based government. 

Communication researcher and political pundit Dr Charles Nyambuga says Raila is tactfully handing over his support bases to Ruto.

“However, the success of his strategy is highly dependent on the new emerging kingpins from the two regions,” Nyambuga says.

Next week, the president will pitch tent in Nyanza for four days to unveil a series of projects and relaunch projects that had been started by former President Uhuru Kenyatta. It will also include inspection of projects that have stalled as well as grace the homecoming ceremonies of CS’s Mbadi and Wandayi.

In his jigsaw puzzle strategy, the president has also opted to retain the loyalty of his allies from the region who joined his team through Kenya Kwanza.

In Western, Ruto has galvanized support from all the key leaders who were a stumbling block in his quest to infiltrate the region. Save for DAP-K leader Eugene Wamalwa, almost all the major political players in the region are now backing the president.

Yesterday, the president attended Cooperative CS Oparanya’s homecoming in an event where he showered praises for Oparanya and urged the region to support his broad-based government.

The Sunday Standard has established that key strategists from both Raila and Ruto’s fold have developed a deal that will see Raila and his troops throw their weight behind his administration.

Ruto has opted to adopt a gather-all, scatter-none strategy and has gathered both his long-term friends through state appointments while strongly throwing state resources to back their leader, Raila for the AUC job.

With Raila at the helm of the opposition, almost all his troops in the region that have been firmly supporting him have lined up behind his decision to work with Ruto without question.

Only a handful of dissenting voices are questioning the motive behind the deal to work with the Kenya Kwanza administration.

In the Gusii region, a bloc that has also backed Raila in past elections, Raila’s decision to open the gates for Ruto saw president Ruto receive a heroic welcome and was praised by some of his past fiercest critics.

During the tour of Kisii and Nyamira counties, President Ruto launched a total of 17 development projects of Affordable Housing, Last Mile Rural Electrification projects, roads, and hospitals.

That would also translate to 17 public rallies at the various spots where the projects are situated in addition to the roadside addresses he did whenever there were citizens ready to be addressed.

Governor Simba Arati, who for long has been an anti-government politician said he fully supported the President in whatever he was doing that would bring good tidings for Kenyans.

“Our president, we are ready to work with you. And all those people you appointed from our party, we will ensure they work well with you to deliver in their mandates. And I assure you of my full support and that of my people in ensuring our country moves forward,” Arati said at Nyaribari Masaba Constituency where Ruto launched the Affordable Housing Project.

Similarly in Luo Nyanza, all ODM stalwarts are backing the president’s administration and are among those expected to welcome him when he tours the region next week.

Although ODM leaders maintain that the party will field a candidate in 2027 polls to challenge President Ruto, observers believe the gains the president is making is a blow to any plans to challenge him.

Political analyst Mark Bichachi says Raila’s dalliance with President Ruto is an access road that is similar to the one that Uhuru gave Ruto in saying “kumi yangu na kumi ya Ruto.

“President Ruto will doubtless remind all ODM zones that he gave four cabinet slots and one Attorney General post to ODM,” Bichachi says.

He opines that the result, whether a fracturing of votes or whole ODM votes going to him in 2027 guarantees a Ruto win.

ODM insiders also told Sunday Standard that they are now between a rock and a hard place and will have a rough time defending any opposition against Ruto in 2027.

“The union with former President Uhuru was turned into a campaign tool against us by Kenya Kwanza. It will be very easy for Kenya Kwanza to tie ODM with their failures,” said an ODM MP.

Constitutional lawyer Clifford Obiero says the reunification will divide the Western region since he (Raila) will never be in a position to unify the competing interests that will result from his departure from active local politics.

“We shall see more unknown parties invading Nyanza and western Kenya,” Obiero says.

He believes Raila is not turning over Nyanza to Ruto but rather offering his support, which may change at any point based on political dynamics and topography.

Constitutional lawyer Ndegwa Njiru says the reunion between Raila and Ruto has no impact on Western and Nyanza region.