2027 game plan: Kalonzo in fresh political dilemma after Raila deal

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka during the burial of Machakos governor Wavinya Ndeti's Aunt, the late Alice Kamengele at Ngelani Secondary School in Machakos County on August 2, 2024. [John Muia, Standard]

Wiper party leader Kalonzo Musyoka is at a crossroads. The strategy he devised in 2007 and almost patented when he waltzed past ODM leader Raila Odinga to become president Mwai Kibaki’s deputy has been snatched from him.

Raila has in a way beaten Kalonzo to government and now the latter finds himself wading through the treacherous political waters as his Azimio coalition co-principal solidifies his union with President William Ruto.

For a man who until recently was regarded as an indecisive fence sitter, Kalonzo now finds himself in a fresh political dilemma, on whether to go it alone and accommodate new alliances or continue with his dalliance with Raila, whose backing would catapult his 2027 presidential bid.

On Thursday, the former Vice President seemed to drop his hard-line stance on the broad-based government and his sharp criticism of Raila’s collaboration with President Ruto.

During a youth meeting in Nairobi, Kalonzo re-affirmed his willingness to engage with Raila to strengthen the Azimio coalition further buttressing the need to forge a powerful alliance to challenge for the presidency in the next polls.

“… we must continue to engage with Raila who as we speak is the leader of the Azimio la Umoja- One Kenya Coalition. There’s is no way we will not engage with him, that is to be expected until we decide on whether to release him to go to the African Union,” he said.

He followed this up with an announcement that former President Uhuru would be convening an Azimio Coalition summit through which constituent parties would address the widening rift in the opposition emanating from ODM’s decision to take up vacant posts in the minority benches.

His sentiments were, however, a departure from his remarks in the recent past where he hinted at going it alone to become Kenya’s sixth President.

“I was ready to be president in 2002 when we said Kibaki Tosha and we allowed former President Kibaki. It was agreed that after Kibaki, I would run. I was ready in 2013. Giving up my presidential ambition would actually mean I go home. It is as simple as that. That means it is not an option,” he said last week.

His lieutenant and Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo had also laid bare plans to forge a new political path, coming weeks after Narc Kenya party leader Martha Karua, a former principal in Azimio, severed ties with the outfit following Raila’s decision to close ranks with Ruto.

But therein lies the dilemma for Kalonzo. Should he, in a bid to find his voice politically and assert himself as an alternative to the incumbent, chart his own path and welcome new alliances or should he stick it out in Azimio in expectation of the ever-elusive backing from Raila?

Already, talks of Kalonzo and Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua’s rapprochement are rife. The DP is smack at the center of supremacy wrangles within the Mt Kenya region with plans for his ouster as Ruto’s running mate in the 2027 polls quickly gaining traction.

The possible emergence of a Gachagua-Kalonzo-Uhuru axi---s has also complicated the political matrix and pundits are now questioning Kalonzo’s “over-reliance on Raila” to clinch the presidency.

“Kalonzo is a very unfortunate man because he suffers an image problem; he has a following but doesn’t seem to attract the crowd. He has to prove himself that he can be or is an alternative to Ruto and Raila and not just Ruto,” says Political and Diplomatic History Prof Macharia Munene.

He attributes Kalonzo’s clamour for endorsement to a need to shore up his political numbers. Should the Eastern region fully rally behind him, Kalonzo would be assured of two million votes in his quest for the presidency. But to unseat Ruto, he will need numbers from the Mt Kenya region and a significant portion of the 6.9 million votes that Raila raked in during the 2022 polls.

“He (Kalonzo) does not need Uhuru, Ruto or Raila. He needs to come out as a man of his own. He should assemble his war chest and get a serious team to steamroll his presidential campaign. So far, there is indication that he could work with Jubilee’s Jeremiah Kioni. Not as a running mate but part of the team,” adds Munene.

To bag Mt Kenya, Prof Munene argues, Gachagua would be his best bet albeit with the actualization of a split between Ruto and his second in command.

“With the DP facing possible ouster, theirs would be an interesting duo. The only problem would be who would be the presidential candidate given that they have both historically served as number two. Gachagua does not need to be a presidential candidate but endorse Kalonzo in a move where he will be building a long-term base as a political kingmaker,” he said.

It is also not lost on the pundit that the Gen Z vote cannot be ignored and for Kalonzo to garner this, says Munene, he would have to shed sly political image.

Governance expert Tom Mboya, however, believes that Kalonzo is yet to find his voice in the current political situation but must do so quickly if he hopes to remain relevant in any 2027 equation.

“There is a vacuum in terms of leadership in the opposition. If Kalonzo wants to be taken seriously, he must fiercely hold the government accountable, something he is yet to do…waiting for endorsements from anyone will not help his cause,” he avers.