Major tell-tale signs why Azimio coalition may not survive for long

Political analyst Martin Andati also argues that all indicators point at Azimio receding gradually and fading away with new realignments probably emerging as the 2027 presidential campaign takes shape.

He thinks there is every likelihood that Azimio will not survive for long because "Raila is campaigning like elections are going to happen tomorrow" and his strong allies are also insisting that he must run.

Unlike Bett, the pundit does not see Kalonzo playing second fiddle again in 2027 because he and Karua will exit Azimio the moment Raila announces that he will run again.

That will complicate matters for Raila and his ODM allies because getting more strong partners to form another giant coalition will become a herculean task, and those departing Azimio could also complicate matters further by forming a third force.

To worsen matters, Uhuru Kenyatta, a strong cog in Azimio's 2027 hopes, could also exit and concentrate on re-orgainsing his Mt Kenya region political base that currently appears to be rudderless because of the ongoing fights against Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua.

Andati says there is talk that Raila is considering going with former Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya as his running mate in 2027, a ticket that will not have even a lean chance to win an election.

"However unpopular William Ruto will be in 2027, if ODM runs Raila with Oparanya, with Kalonzo also definitely being on the ballot possibly with Eugene Wamalwa as we hear, then the current president will win," says Andati.

That means the two Azimio splinter groups will embarrassingly lose, a scenario last seen in the 1992 presidential election when a very unpopular President Daniel arap Moi won with only 36 percent.

Another danger of Azimio splintering, is that there is a possibility of President Ruto doing what President Kibaki did in 2007, when Kalonzo ran, surprisingly putting up a spirited and well financed campaign and later joined government when a united opposition could have easily won.

"You can have Raila running but they put some money on Kalonzo to also run and split the votes. Both will lose to William Ruto and he will do a coalition," adds Andati.

The analyst, however, thinks Ruto is aware that the Mt Kenya region is slippery and may not be fully behind him and that is why he is very keen on the western Kenya vote through his close association with Speaker Moses Wetang'ula and Musalia Mudavadi, thus weakening Azimio even further.

Analysts say the problem is the Mt Kenya region has so far neither embraced Raila nor Kalonzo but appear to have gone back to Uhuru Kenyatta without accepting his so called handshake brother as the alternative.

Azimio is also doomed in the Mt Kenya region because the Kikuyu feel marginalised in the coalition, hence the emergence of groups like the Kamwene Forum and President Kenyatta's increasing popularity.

Central vote

Kagwanja says it appears now that the person they chose to support and rejected Uhuru is not performing. The voters in the region are beginning to think about the former president but things will change should an alternative show up.

It is also clear that Uhuru is more interested in revamping Jubilee than about the fortunes of Azimio and will not shed a tear if it collapsed even tomorrow.

"He will like his party Jubilee to be revamped so that when other people are counting money from the Registrar of Political Parties, he will also be doing the same. It is political entrepreneurship. Jubilee used to get over Sh500 million money in 2021 when they had 177 MPs," adds Kagwanja.