Will Azimio survive 'curse' of coalitions?

It is more than obvious that the fight in Azimio is mostly about who succeeds former Prime Minister Raila Odinga as its foremost leader. Kalonzo, who has supported Raila in the last three presidential elections, feels it is his turn to bring the prize home.

The Wiper leader has seemed restless for an assurance that Raila would back him up, vowing not to support the former premier in the 2027 presidential contest.

Kalonzo is keen to have no one spoil his party, hence his recent attack on the Kamwene caucus, which comprises Karua and other politicians from her Mt Kenya backyard.

"I don't want to pass judgment on that issue, but have you heard of dead on arrival? This thing means individualism. It is a terrible political philosophy. I would advise my friends to leave it and we stick together in Azimio," he said in an interview on KTN News, earning a clap back from Karua.

"What about Kamwene scares my brother Kalonzo Musyoka that he must drag it in every conversation he has?" Karua posed on X.

Highly placed sources within Azimio have consistently told The Sunday Standard that Kalonzo's candidacy in the next elections was a done deal. But the signs tell a different story. For starters, Karua's push through Kamwene suggests that nothing is settled yet.

Then there is the fact that Raila does not seem like he will retire from active politics any time soon. He is as active as he has ever been. Raila still stands out as the face and voice of the opposition, a move that has prompted pressure from within his ranks to have him try out for the presidency a sixth time.

The former premier has kept many guessing over his plans and has appeared more preoccupied with keeping President William Ruto in check, rather than commencing campaigns.

Additionally, Raila is strengthening ODM. The opposition leader will be busy in the next month with grassroots recruitment drives across the country. But that does not spook Kalonzo.

When former President Uhuru Kenyatta and Azimio la Umoja Presidential Candidate Raila Odinga attended a campaign rally at Jacaranda Grounds in Nairobi County. [File, Standard]

His successor, Uhuru, seemed to have beaten the jinx when in 2017 he vied on a firmed-up version of the coalition that brought him to power in 2013. The Jubilee Alliance Party of 2013 would dissolve into a party that its founders said would rule for a century.

Uhuru's handshake with Raila would sideline Ruto, then deputy president, and he would leave to form the Kenya Kwanza alliance. The president intends to have the ruling coalition dissolve into a single party, a push that some constituent parties, such as National Assembly Speaker Moses Wetang'ula's Ford Kenya and Amani National Congress, oppose.

Azimio is also struggling to contain dissent over a report by the National Dialogue Committee (Nadco) that Kalonzo co-chaired alongside National Assembly Majority Leader Kimani Ichung'wah.

Raila's ODM plans to endorse the Nadco report "as is", as the party's Secretary General Edwin Sifuna said in a statement on Wednesday. This position is shared by Kalonzo.

Karua and former Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa have opposed the report over its failure to address the cost of living.