Why Raila's battle with Ruto on national issues could save Oduol

Siaya county assembly members unanimously found the DG guilty of grossly violating the Constitution, abuse of office, gross misconduct and misleading the public by giving false information about alleged corruption in the county government.

Oduol is expected to answer to the charges in the Senate, which will determine his fate. Senators are expected to decide whether a special committee of 11 members will investigate the charges or the proceedings will be conducted in plenary. If Senate chooses the committee route and Oduol is acquitted then the matter will rest at that. If the committee decides to impeach the DG, the decision must be ratified at the plenary.

If the DG's impeachment is heard in plenary, then a vote will determine whether or not he loses his seat. He is the second deputy county boss whose fate will be decided by the Senate after former Machakos Deputy Governor Bernard Kiala's impeachment was overturned by senators in 2014.

The Standard has established that lobbying by all parties is in high gear. Mr Orengo, a former senator, is banking on his rapport with his former colleagues to support his deputy's removal from office. The governor's side has also reached out to ODM rebel lawmakers currently enjoying cordial relations with their Kenya Kwanza counterparts to act as emissaries in marshalling numbers in case of a vote.

But, according to one of the 'emissaries' who sought anonymity, that has proven a hurdle, given the constant fights between President Ruto's Kenya Kwanza Alliance and Raila's Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya, which hardly see eye to eye.

Votes on different matters over the last few months have exposed the glaring differences between the two coalitions. Lawmakers from both sides have stuck to their party positions.

In the face of Azimio's active campaign against 'rebels', it is expected that in case of a vote, most of the coalition's senators will endorse Oduol's impeachment. Courtesy of their superior numbers, Kenya Kwanza has won in all the major votes, a factor that could work in Oduol's favour if the president's coalition rallies behind him.

Voting on impeachment motions has mostly been along partisan lines. Political correctness has ensured the survival of governors, with those on the wrong side of the fence suffering dire consequences. Former governors Mike Sonko (Nairobi) and Ferdinand Waititu's (Kiambu) political choices made them vulnerable to Raila's handshake with former President Uhuru Kenyatta, with Kirinyaga's Anne Waiguru surviving with the backing of the same truce in 2020.

Bring it on! Siaya deputy governor Oduol tells MCAs amid impeachment plot

Nandi Senator Samson Cherargei said Kenya Kwanza would not be drawn into personal wars of any kind.

"The Senate does not settle political scores or facilitate the political witchhunt or political competition (upon) which it looks like the impeachment of the DG (Oduol) is anchored," he said, a statement that could signal the direction in which the vote could take.

Makueni Senator Dan Maanzo said it would be unfortunate if Kenya Kwanza senators used their numbers to save Oduol in disregard of whatever evidence will be provided.

"If they save him in that way then we will know it is purely politics. They must look at the facts because this is a problem that can arise anywhere," said Maanzo, revealing his bias on the matter courtesy of his friendship with Orengo and the fact that the governor is his "mentor".

"I'll be biased unless Oduol has a good case against Orengo. But facts will speak for themselves and we will be fair. If Oduol broke the law by providing misleading information against the governor, which is a criminal offence, then he must pay the price. But if he has the evidence for his allegations he should present them," Maanzo added.

Nyandarua Senator John Methu said Kenya Kwanza would be objective during the proceedings.

"It is imperative that we first get the contents of the proceedings so that we do not draw wrong impressions. We shall be impartial and deal with it," he said.

Both sides of the divide have seized every chance at a scuffle, which has seeped into the ongoing bipartisan talks that have all but flopped. Raila has engaged with Ruto in street demonstrations over the cost of living and electoral reforms, with the Finance Bill currently providing political fodder for the opposition in their criticism of the government.

Ruto has been scouting for a chance to stir up a hornet's nest in the opposition, initiating waves of defections that have rocked Azimio.