A resurgent Raila Odinga keeps supporters guessing

First, there is the likelihood that they could mobilise jobless Kenyans or the so-called hustlers to refuse paying taxes or the increased NSSF and NHIF levies.

It appears that has already created a big rift between the government and the opposition.

Raila went under the radar after losing the hotly contested elections, taking time to go on holiday with his family outside the country.

Some of his disillusioned supporters had suggested that "baba had no reason to fight for Kenyans again" because voters should have considered the consequences of their choices at the ballot box. He then emerged in Siaya a week ago and promised his supporters to "wait for good things that will be coming soon" without revealing much.

And barely a week later on Thursday last week, Raila stung the President and his government, telling them that they will resist any attempt by the government to raise money for corrupt institutions.

He demanded that institutions like NHIF, NSSF and KRA be reformed to deal with corruption and wastage of money instead of pumping in more money as suggested by the president.

And in a dramatic exchange, the President shot back the following day, telling Raila that the government had already agreed with Cotu and FKE to increase NSSF monthly deductions from Sh200 to 6 per cent of salaries.

"Our friends in the opposition are telling us that we should continue to borrow and we should not raise our savings," he said while officiating a function at the Judiciary.

Fresh duel

Raila and his supporters appeared to have been gearing up for a duel with Kenya Kwanza at the Siaya meeting. And it appears the country may be going back to what happened after the contested 2013 elections, when Raila mobilised his supporters to mount demonstrations against the government.

Siaya Governor James Orengo set the ball rolling by telling mourners that although Raila lost the election, there is hope that the dream will be realized in the near future. "We are going to get there, God willing as long as we don't take our eyes of the ball," said Orengo

His Kisumu counterpart Prof Anyang Nyong'o said Raila did not lose the presidential poll but his hard earned victory was stolen. "We stood for the truth and fought for the people and we know that what happened is not what the people wanted," said Nyong'o.

Statements by Raila and his lieutenants gave a hint that he was still in the fight for the people, although facts on what he was plotting remained scanty. "I have not stopped fighting for you. There is something big coming soon," Raila told mourners.

Some observers have suggested that he could also be plotting on how the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya team will manage changes at IEBC when chairman Wafula Chebukati and three commissioners leave office.

Indeed, during his address in Siaya at burial of Barrack Oduor, the body guard of his wife Ida Odinga, he spoke about the introduction of VAR (Video Assistant Referee) in election.

"Diego Maradona scored with his hand and the goal was given, which he said a goal from the hand of God but we will ensure there is VAR at IEBC and only genuine goals are scored," said Raila. He also told the cheering crowd that he has not given up on fighting for social political liberation and would drop a bomb shell that will heavily impact on the country soon.

Political analyst Martin Andati argues that Raila and the Azimio threat could come through, creating anxiety and trying to remain relevant as they prepare for the 2027 elections.

"The law is very clear on how the replacement of commissioners is supposed to be done, but he may also not want to jeopardise the tenure of the four remaining commissioners who supported him," says Andati.

Although Kenyans are currently reeling under the heavy burden of the cost of living, especially the cost of basic commodities like food, the opposition leader had remained quiet.

At the Siaya meeting, it was left to Kanu Secretary General Nick Salat, who said hunger cannot wait for 100 days, the period Kenya Kwanza government had promised for Kenyans to see changes.

Raila made a similar call in Kakamega during the burial of Governor Fernandes Barasa's mother where he reassured ODM supporters of his commitment to their course.

"There is no opposition without Raila and the opposite could have been true had Ruto lost the election because he could have played that role very effectively," says Prof Gitile Naituli of Multi-Media University. Apart from the high cost of living and rising inflation, Raila also accuses the Ruto administration of vengeance when dealing with police officers alleged to have committed extra-judicial killings.

He challenged the president's intervention in the alleged extra-judicial cases, demanding that he constitutes a commission of inquiry instead of targeting individuals.

"We believe in the rule of law. We believe in due process. We are opposed to executions in our country because our supporters have been the greatest victims over the years," said Raila.

He claims the extrajudicial killings turned into an act of witchhunt targeting former DCI boss George Kinoti and some police officers.

Andati says the 2027 presidential campaign appears to have kicked off, but nothing much can move without Raila's enigmatic presence.

"As they challenge the government, the opposition is also focused on 2027 and that is why they will be getting more vocal," he says.