Azimio-Kenya Kwanza rivalry heading to Parliament as first sitting to be held this week

The battle between Kenya Kwanza Alliance and Azimio la Umoja-One Kenya Coalition party is set to spill over to Parliament this week when the House holds its first sitting.

Even as eyes continue to focus on the Supreme Court, which is slated to render its verdict on the petitions filed by, among others, Azimio presidential candidate Raila Odinga and his running mate Martha Karua, President Uhuru Kenyatta is required to convene the inaugural session of the 13th Parliament by Thursday.

Article 126 (6) of the Constitution provides that whenever a new House is elected, the president, by notice in the Gazette, shall appoint the place and date for the first sitting of the new House, which shall be not more than 30 days after the election.

Kenyans went to the General Election on August 9, which puts September 8 as the final day within which Parliament must hold the first sitting for purposes of swearing in MPs-elect and electing speakers and their deputies.

A similar scenario obtained after the March 4, 2013 General Election, the first to be held under the new constitutional dispensation, when incumbent President Mwai Kibaki convened Parliament on March 28, two days before the Chief Justice Willy Mutunga-led bench delivered its ruling in a petition filed by Raila.

However, unlike in 2013, when Jubilee Coalition of then president-elect Uhuru and his deputy William Ruto enjoyed a clear parliamentary majority in both the National Assembly and the Senate, this time round, the difference in numbers is wafer-thin.

As per the pre-election agreement signed by 20 affiliates, Azimio coalition has a clear majority in the National Assembly, which was boosted by the three wins it scored in three of four postponed elections held in Kitui Rural, Kacheliba, Pokot South and Rongai, which would give it a headstart in the House

However, Ruto's Kenya Kwanza, which has a slight majority in the Senate, has been on a poaching spree since he was declared president-elect by Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) Chairman Wafula Chebukati.

While both Azimio and the Registrar of Political Parties have termed the "defection" of MPs from affiliates that signed a binding pre-election as illegal, it would be interesting to watch how they will vote if the Supreme Court either orders a rerun or, as per one of the reliefs sought by Raila and Karua, declares them the valid winners of the August 9 contest.

According to the Azimio-One Kenya deal, any affiliate that intends to exit has to give a 90-day notice to its chairman, who is the outgoing president.

They include former Machakos Governor Alfred Mutua's Maendeleo Chap Chap (two MPs-elect) and PAA party of former Kilifi Governor Amason Kingi (three MPs-elect), which switched camps before elections. The move was halted by the Political Parties Disputes Tribunal, meaning it is legally challengeable.

Those who have shifted allegiance post-election are Mandera Senator-elect Ali Roba's UDM, which has seven MPs-elect, and Ugenya MP-elect David Ochieng's MDG.

Jubilee Secretary General Jeremiah Kioni has already warned that those who have shifted their positions risk losing their seats.

On her part, Nderitu said the MPs will be required to resign and seek a fresh mandate.

"They can associate however they want but they cannot be in two coalitions - they have to resign from one. So far, I have not received a request from any party that wants to leave a coalition," Nderitu told our sister paper, The Standard, in a past interview.

Analysts opine that without complying with the Constitution, both the number of MPs-elect from Azimio affiliates and independents will not count in terms of deciding the majority and minority sides in the National Assembly.

However, they will play a major role in deciding who wins the position of speaker and deputy but Azimio will retain those of majority and deputy majority leader as well as chairpersons of powerful committees.

In the event of a Ruto presidency, political analyst Dr Wanguhu Gitonga avers his "acquired" numbers could also come in handy when pushing the government's agenda in the House, including vetting of Cabinet Secretaries, Principal Secretaries and other State officers as well as policy and legislative business.

"In western democracies, a president or prime minister cannot properly function without a majority in Parliament. He will either seek to run a minority government with all its attendant risks or seek a formal agreement with one or two small parties," he told The Nairobian.

"In countries such as the UK, the other option is to resign and ask the Queen to invite the candidate who came second to form a government, a situation that could lead to fresh elections until a solution is found," adds Gitonga, a graduate of the London School of Economics.

But in Kenya, while Article 80 is clear that if an MP resigns from a party or is deemed to have resigned from a party; or if elected as an independent but joins a political party, their seat is declared vacant. So far, there is no precedent in the country's new constitutional order. Neither has the recall clause under Article 104 been actualised by any voter(s).

"The problem is that the country largely divorced itself from the Westminster model and adopted a mongrel of the US, South African and Nigerian parliaments where the leader of the majority leaves the role to allied MPs who can be compromised by the Executive and other outside forces," says Gitonga.

History professor Macharia Munene says since party control will determine who gets, among others, the powerful positions of speaker and deputy speaker, Kenyans are likely to see more MPs switch to endorse Kenya Kwanza's candidates in the event Ruto's victory is affirmed.

Kipkirui Kap Telwa, a communications lecturer at Multimedia University, also agrees, stating that a Ruto win at the highest court in the land can only buoy him.

"If the election result is annulled, it could dampen Kenya Kwanza's victory while Azimio is likely to be too disoriented to lobby for their speakership candidates," Kap Telwa, who is also a lawyer, adds.

While Kenya Kwanza plans to field Ford-K leader Moses Wetang'ula for National Assembly Speaker and his PAA party counterpart Amason Kingi for the Senate, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka has featured as Wetang'ula's opponent on the Azimio side in the event it loses the petition.

No favourite has emerged for the Senate race so far.