No tyranny of numbers: IEBC audit unmasks myth of youth vote

Mombasa youths entertain themselves with music during a political rally held by Mombasa County Governor aspirant, Suleiman Shahbal at Kadongo in Mombasa. [Omondi Onyango,Standard]

The youth will have less say in the outcome of the August 9 General Election than their older counterparts after an audit of the voters register revealed that their numbers have dropped.

According to the report released by Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) based on the KPMG audit, the number of youth (18-34 years) registered to vote in 2022 stands at 39.84 per cent, which is a decline of 5.27 per cent from 2017. 

This means that of the 22,120,458 voters in the now cleaned register, there are a paltry eight million youth, an indication that their influence on the ballot would be minimal, considering that several reports show that the group has a low turn out in the elections.

Presidential candidates William Ruto of Kenya Kwanza, Azmio la Umoja-One Kenya's Raila Odinga and George Wajackoyah of Roots Party have in their campaigns focused on winning over the youth vote across the country.

According to the 2019 population and housing census results, 75 per cent of the 47.6 million Kenyans were under the age of 35.

The audit has now pricked the youth bubble and could force the presidential candidates to reengineer their campaign strategy to ensure the focus is tilted towards the more than 13 million voters aged above 35, which accounts for 60 per cent of the voting population.

The report released by IEBC Chairman Wafula Chebukati at the Bomas of Kenya yesterday indicated that there were more men voters than women at 50.88 per cent and 49.12 per cent, respectively.

Further analysis showed that the number of registered female youth voters has declined by 7.75 per cent in the period 2017 to 2022, while male youth enrollment has declined by 2.89 per cent.

The enrollment rate of persons with disability stands at 18.94 per cent of the eligible voting population, while registered voters in the Diaspora increased from 4,223 to 10,444 and convicts in prisons increased from 5,182 to 7,483.

The report noted that the registration of Kenyans living in the diaspora constitutes 0.05 per cent of the registered voters.

Chebukati said the number of voters increased from 9,611,423 to 22,120,458, while the polling stations increased to 46,232 from 40,883 in 2017.

He said the commission on June 8 postponed the certification and gazettement of the register of voters (ROV) to June 20 to address critical audit findings and recommendations touching on the same upon receiving the preliminary audit report on June 2.

"In accordance with the Elections Act, the Commission will also submit the report to the National Assembly and the Senate. In the spirit of transparency and commitment to public confidence in the ROV and electoral processes the commission now provides this briefing to inform Kenyans of the summary findings and actions taken to address issues identified from the audit," said Chebukati.

On the thorny issue of the transfer of voters,he said KPMG noted that there were transfer transactions processed between the 2017 General Election and May 2022 and identified several constituencies and counties showing trends of abnormal voter transfers.

According to the audit, the 10 counties and their transferred votes include Wajir (20,973), Nairobi (5,476), Nakuru (4,815), Murang'a (3,789), Nyandarua (2,709), Kakamega (2,706), Laikipia (2,202) and Nandi (2,044).

Others are Mandera (2,857), Nyeri (12,769), Uasin Gishu (15,588) and Kiambu (31,492). The total number of the voters transferred were 107,420.

Recently, Ruto complained that about 800,000 voters in his strongholds had been transferred from their polling stations and claimed that this was a plot to rig the elections.

But Chebukati yesterday said from the audit, a breakdown of all transfers processed in the register from the 47 counties, 290 constituencies, diaspora, and prisons was shared, and together with the commission, the audit identified the specific counties that had abnormal trends and voter transfer numbers.

"The objective of the joint exercise was to ascertain the accuracy and validity of those transfers and to enable quick corrective action," he said.

By the time of issuance of the final audit report, he said, transactions in areas identified as having unusual transfer records had been reversed.

"In addition, the commission undertook a parallel exercise of collecting all the Form Cs across the country and capturing them in a database to quality check the Register of Voters and to take appropriate action," he said.

The KPMG audit indicated that there were 172,929 voters who were deactivated from the register because their ID and passport references do not match with records at the National Registration Bureau (NRB).

Also deactivated were 4,757 individuals who had registered more than once with both ID number and passport, those whose records indicated they were duplicated or blank ID/passport references.

The deactivated names, IEBC Chief Executive Officer Marjan Hussein Marjan said, will not be allowed to use the biometric identification during elections to mitigate the risk of the illegitimate voters voting.

The audit also noted that all the 246,465 deceased persons were provided by the NRB.

Mr Marjan said as part of the audit, KPMG engaged with a number of stakeholders and government representatives responsible for maintaining and providing reference data required for the audit, including KNBS, NRB, Department of Immigration Services and Civil Registry Services.

Also included in the exercise were aspirants and political parties, in conjunction with the Political Parties Liaison Committee (PPLC).