TIFA: Raila-Karua ticket more popular than Ruto-Rigathi pair

Raila Odinga unveiled Martha Karua as his running mate on May 16, 2022. [File, Standard]

If elections were to be held today, Raila Odinga and Martha Karua would get 39 per cent of the votes compared to William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua’s 35 per cent, a TIFA poll shows.

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka would come third with two per cent of the votes.

A total of 14 per cent of the sampled respondents said they were still undecided on who to elect in the upcoming polls. One per cent said they won’t vote in the August 9 contest.

The opinion poll also placed Azimio la Umoja as the most popular coalition in the country, with an approval rating of 38 per cent followed by Deputy President William Ruto’s Kenya Kwanza at 28 per cent.

The disintegrated One Kenya Alliance (OKA) coalition had an approval rating of three per cent.

Thirty-one (31) per cent of Kenyans were yet to decide on which coalition to follow, indicating that the frontrunners, Ruto and Odinga, still have some work to do in convincing this group to vote for them.

As of today (Wednesday, May 18), there are some 80 days to go to the August 9 General Election, meaning the two have little time to tilt the undecided lot to their favour.

Trends and Insights Africa (TIFA) conducted the poll across nine regions in the country. They are Mt. Kenya, Central Rift, Western Kenya, Nyanza, Nairobi, Coast, Northern Kenya, Lower Eastern and South Rift.

Mt. Kenya, Central Rift and Western Kenya had the highest number of participants at 20pc, 14pc and 12pc respectively.

One thousand, seven hundred and nineteen (1,719) participants took part in the opinion poll.

Ruto’s United Democratic Alliance (UDA) Party is Kenya’s post popular single political outfit at 29 per cent, followed by the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM) at 25 per cent.

President Uhuru Kenyatta’s Jubilee Party and Kalonzo Musyoka’s Wiper tied at third position, with an approval rating of three per cent each.

Running mates

Martha Karua’s naming as Raila Odinga’s running mate seems to have excited the female voters, as the approval rating for the pair among women was higher than that of William Ruto and Rigathi Gachagua.

Thirty-five (35) per cent of women sampled said they would vote for Raila Odinga as president, while 32 per cent said they’d choose William Ruto.

More men (43 per cent) prefer a Raila Odinga presidency to a William Ruto presidency (39 per cent).

More female respondents (19 per cent) were still undecided on who to elect as president in the upcoming general election.

The survey was conducted via telephonic interviews with respondents whose contacts were collected through face–to–face interviews. Kiswahili and English were the languages used during data collection.

“We had over 100 TIFA staff members making calls yesterday (May 17, 2022) from 8am. By evening, we had finished [the data collection],” TIFA director, Maggie Ireri, said during the release of the opinion poll results in Nairobi on Wednesday, May 18.

The data collected was conducted in one day, said the opinion poll firm.