Raila Odinga between a rock and a hard place over choice of running mate

 

Azimio la Umoja Coalition presidential flag bearer Raila Odinga chats with former Gatanga MP Peter Kenneth and Murang'a Women rep Sabina Chege during a town hall meeting. [David Njaaga, Standard]

 

Whichever decision he makes over his running mate, Raila Odinga will annoy some loyalists and break the hearts and careers of politicians keen to deputise him should he form the next government.

The ODM party leader is walking on eggshells, for he dares not antagonise any of his suitors at a time he is seeking to gather all Kenyans and scatter no votes. But time is not on his side. The fronting of Peter Kenneth and Sabina Chege as Jubilee Party’s preferred candidates to deputise him in the August 9 elections has further complicated Azimio One Kenya’s hunt for a suitable running mate.

The President Uhuru Kenyatta-led party’s move has compounded Raila’s dilemma on whether to pick his tried and tested ally, Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka, or woo Mt Kenya region by choosing a son or daughter of their soil to be his running mate.

With the Independent Electoral and Boundaries Commission (IEBC) setting the deadline for presidential candidates to submit names of their running mates by May 16 and the General Election only 95 days away, Raila is a man in a crunch. 

He faces the quandary of holding Azimio together in an intricate balance of appeasing Mt Kenya that offers 5.9 million votes or finally ‘breaking bread’ with the Kamba nation that commands 1.6 million votes and which has rallied behind him in the past three elections.

A statement by the running mate selection panel chairperson Noah Wekesa yesterday revealed that of the 20 names submitted to the vetting panel, they had shortlisted seven. 

Leaders on the list include Kalonzo, Kenneth, Chege, Gideon Moi, Narc Kenya leader Martha Karua, ODM deputy party leader Hassan Joho and National Liberal Party leader Stephen Tarus. “The other 13 had not been submitted by constituent political parties of the Azimio la Umoja One Kenya Coalition party,” said Wekesa.

Should Raila pick Kalonzo, President Kenyatta must work harder to convince Mt Kenya that they have a stake in government should Azimio win the polls. On the other hand, United Democratic Alliance (UDA) party will have a field day in Mt Kenya by using this as a demonstration how Raila has little regard for the region.

The region has always voted against Raila’s bid and if recent sentiments by Nakuru Governor Lee Kinyanjui are anything to go by, the mountain feels entitled to the number two ticket. “We are not blind followers; the region of Mt Kenya expects nothing short of the deputy president. It doesn’t matter which part of the region the leader will come from,” said Kinyanjui.

Raila can therefore not afford to lose the backing of President Kenyatta given that his foot soldiers like Kenneth and Chege have been with the ODM chief since the onset, unlike Kalonzo and Karua who are considered late entrants into the coalition.

Should Uhuru withdraw his support for Raila, it would have immense repercussions on Azimio’s chances of forming the next government.

For the Kenya Kwanza camp, a Raila-Kalonzo ticket could lessen their headache in identifying Ruto’s running mate.

Ruto has since 2017 made inroads into Mt Kenya and built a wave of support from leaders and their constituents. He has capitalised on the political debt owed to him for supporting Uhuru in 2013 and 2017- evidenced by the mass defections from Jubilee to UDA in the region. This overwhelming support has seen his allies from the mountain demand the running mate position. A Raila-Kalonzo ticket would thus mean Ruto would have the latitude to appoint a running mate from the region.

Kalonzo’s forays into the Coast to campaign for Mike Sonko and nominating of candidates in Nairobi which is traditionally an ODM and Jubilee stronghold, are seen as attempts to prove a point; that he has earned his rightful place on the three-legged stool and has the political might to determine the outcome of an election.

Kalonzo’s demands

His recent demands for a meeting with Uhuru and Raila over the running mate issue attest to this. And to ratchet up the pressure, he is appealing to his base in what he is calling, interview by people who are convinced of his suitability for the number two slot in Azimio camp.

But what if Kalonzo was to ditch Raila and vie as an independent? Would Mt Kenya votes be enough to guarantee the Azimio camp a win or would suffer an easy defeat to Kenya Kwanza political outfit?

Wiper Deputy Secretary-General Dan Maanzo is convinced that any fallout between Raila and Kalonzo would see Azimio and its flag-bearer lose the elections.

“What qualifies one to be a suitable running mate is the number of votes he brings to the table. I can confidently say none of the political parties running for the presidency in 2022 will form government without votes from Kalonzo and Wiper,” said Maanzo.

Nyeri Town MP Wambugu Ngunjiri said Raila’s running mate would be identified depending on two things; the number of votes they bring in and the likely post-election intrigues.

“The biggest lesson we have learnt is with Uhuru and Ruto. We do not want a repeat of a deputy who will undermine his boss because he thinks he made him president,” said Wambugu. Political analyst Tom Mboya said Raila should be wary of appointing a running mate who would trigger frosty relations. “Mt Kenya is a key constituency. Raila is lucky that he has capable leaders from the region,” said Mboya.