Azimio maps out 34 must-win-counties

President Uhuru Kenyatta with Azimio la Umoja flag-bearer Raila Odinga during the coalition's NDC at the KICC, Nairobi. [PSCU]

ODM leader Raila Odinga’s campaign team has mapped out at least 34 counties for a win in their latest scheme to secure a clear victory against Deputy President Dr William Ruto.

Embolden by the entry of Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka into Mr Odinga’s fold, the team is also focusing on obtaining super majority in Parliament to safeguard government agenda should Raila win the presidency.

The Standard has learnt of plans to form a technical team that brings onboard officials from the 26 affiliate parties under Azimio la Umoja movement to guide party primaries in picking the most popular candidates.

In certain instances, the movement plans to have some aspirants pull out in favour of one if it is clear they risk losing a seat to Kenya Kwanza by fielding multiple candidates.

The details emerged on a day Mr Odinga left the county for a five-day visit to the UK. Raila was scheduled to fly last night. “He (Raila) is supposed to leave this (yesterday) evening to the UK. Now that he is the candidate he is supposed to talk to the diaspora support and also the powers in the West so that they understand his agenda for the country,” ODM secretary-general Mr Edwin Sifuna said.

Mr Odinga’s Press secretary Mr Dennis Onsarigo confirmed that the ODM leader would be in the UK for five days. His itinerary and planned engagements were not immediately available.

Yesterday, ODM deputy party leader and Kakamega Governor Mr Wycliffe Oparanya said an internal survey showed the movement leading in 34 counties. “We are going to mount a very aggressive campaign and I can tell that things are looking good on our side,” said Mr Oparanya.

“We are assured of the numbers more than ever. According to our survey, we are leading in 34 counties. Our traditional backyards have remained. Western is locked and we expect 70 per cent in our favour,” he added.

According to the survey, the campaign team has mapped out all the Nyanza counties – Siaya, Kisumu, Homa Bay, Migori, Kisii and Nyamira – as being behind Raila’s presidency. The team has also listed Nairobi County as an area for their taking.

In the Western region, Kakamega, Busia, Vihiga, Trans-Nzoia and Bungoma are listed as pro-Azimio.

The team has, however, marked Bungoma for “special focus” due to Ford-Kenya leader Mr Moses Wetang’ula’s influence.

At the Coast, Mr Odinga’s team is confident of a sweep in Mombasa, Kilifi, Taita Taveta, Lamu and Tana River counties. The team has “doubt” about Kwale, but is planning to flip it in Mr Odinga’s favour.

The team is sure of the three Lower Eastern counties of Machakos, Makueni and Kitui. Mr Kalonzo and governors Mrs Charity Ngilu (Kitui), Prof Kivutha Kibwana (Makueni) and Dr Alfred Mutua (Machakos) all back Mr Odinga’s candidature.

It has also listed the entire North Eastern - Garissa, Wajir, Mandera, Isiolo and Marsabit counties - as being pro-Odinga. A majority of the elected leaders from the region have declared support for Mr Odinga.

Meru and Embu counties have also been listed as Azimio strongholds. The team believes Meru Governor Mr Kiraitu Murungi and Agriculture CS Mr Peter Munya will deliver votes.

In Rift Valley, Mr Odinga’s team is focusing on Samburu, Narok and Kajiado counties. There are also expectations that Governors Mr Ndiritu Muriithi and Mr Francis Kimemia will influence Laikipia and Nyandarua to vote Azimio. 

The internal survey is, however, quiet on a majority of Mt Kenya counties. President Uhuru Kenyatta is backing Mr Odinga and is expected to campaign for him in the vote-rich region that voted for him to the last man in 2013 and 2017 elections.

Yesterday, Mr Sifuna and Jubilee secretary general Mr Jeremiah Kioni said the affiliate parties would pay special focus on party primaries to ensure a majority win in Parliament and county assemblies. “The constituent parties have to now focus on the question of the other seats. Now that the question of the presidential candidate is settled, we are focusing on the party primaries,” said Mr Sifuna.

Kioni said the game plan was to have a majority in the Senate and the National Assembly.

The Ndaragwa MP said it would not make sense to win the presidency but have no numbers to push government agenda in the two parliaments. “We will ensure we have candidates for all the other seats. We will field them based on strength of party in a particular region so that we can deliver on the promises that we have made to Kenyans,” said Mr Kioni.

He said consultations with partner parties were ongoing to ensure they do not lose. “We may not field jointly; but we will field candidates that will ensure a win. Where there is a strong wave of UDA, we will ensure we don’t split our votes,” said Mr Kioni.

He claimed there was a scheme by Dr Ruto’s UDA. “We know they are opposed to use of verified party membership lists because we are aware of their plans to infiltrate our nominations so that they can bring a weaker candidate. We are ready for the task,” he alleged.