Key voter blocs that may decide Homa Bay battle

Homa Bay Woman Rep Gladys Wanga and Kasipul MP Ong’ondo address voters in Kendu Bay town on February 11, 2022. [James Omoro, Standard]

The Homa Bay governor’s race may be determined by voter patterns that seem to divide the vast county into three voting blocs.  

Homa Bay County has population of 1,131,950, according to the 2019 national census and has 476,875 voters as per the Independent Electoral Boundaries Commission registers. 

Ndhiwa sub county leads with 85,056 voters while Karachuonyo is second with 84,004 voters. Kasipul has 57, 344, Kabondo Kasipul 49,432, Rangwe 52,516, Homa Bay Town 50,570, Suba North 51,454 and Suba South 46,499 voters.The IEBC is in the process of preparing new registers after the recent listing of new voters. Rangwe, Ndhiwa and Homa Bay Town which have 188,142 votes have previously voted along similar patterns informed by converging interests.

Another bloc is Rachuonyo, Kasipul and Kabondo Kasipul which command about 190,780 votes. Then there’s the Suba bloc, which comprises Suba North and Suba South with 97,953 registered voters. The three blocs are based on clans and proximity of constituencies.

The race to succeed Governor Cyprian Awiti has attracted heavyweights, among them Woman Rep Gladys Wanga, Deputy Governor Hamilton Orata, ODM chairman John Mbadi, former Kasipul MP Oyugi Magwanga, former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, former County Secretary Isaiah Ogwe, businessman Jared Kiasa, former Finance executive Nicholas K’Oriko, businessman Luis Ogingo and Kuppet Secretary-General Akelo Misori.

Wanga and Kidero hail from Rangwe. Mbadi comes from Suba South, Magwanga from Kasipul while Ogwe comes from Homa Bay Town. Orata, Kiasa and Ogingo come from Ndhiwa while K’Oriko and Misori hail from Karachuonyo. While the aspirants are making efforts to win, observers argue the winning team will have to come up with a strategy that taps into clan interests. 

Ndhiwa and Karachuonyo, which have the highest number of registered votes, are among areas the aspirants have all trained their sights on. “Any aspirant who manages to get majority votes from Karachuonyo and Ndhiwa could have an edge,” said Milton Orwe, a political analyst. In this respect, Wanga and Kidero could have an advantage. 

Wanga is using the rapport she created with residents during her tenure as a two-term Woman Rep. She reached out to various pockets of the county while implementing projects. She recently launched her campaigns in what elicited mixed reactions among leaders and residents. “Out of the elected leaders in Homa Bay, I have the support of 40 MCAs. Four MPs and the Senator Moses Kajwang are supporting my bid,” Wanga says. She is also seen to a close ally of ODM leader Raila Odinga. “Having been a county leader, I have grassroots networks. Additionally, the party is scouting for women governors and I am one of the strongest women running for the seat,” she told The Sunday Standard. 

Magwanga’s strength lies in the popularity he gained when he ran for the post in 2017. He mounted a fierce battle against Awiti, which led to a protracted petition up to the Supreme Court. 

In 2017, Awiti was declared the winner with  210,173 while Magwanga got 189,060 votes. Tom Onyango of the Jubilee party and Medo Misama (Independent) got 1,432 and 668 votes, respectively.

But Magwanga and Awiti have since reconciled, sparking speculation that the incumbent could be backing his (Magwanga’s) bid.

Orata banks his hope on experience but also bears the burden of incumbency. His cordial working relationship with Awiti could earn him votes. Mbadi is consolidating votes from Suba and is keenly wooing Ndhiwa and Karachuonyo. Kidero has been using fundraisers and voter education to endear himself to the people. Kiasa’s strength lies in the youth. He has participated in various youth empowerment programmes. Ogwe has strength in scholarship programmes across the county. K’Oriko, an ally of Awiti is using his networks to seek votes.