Will Mudavadi and Kalonzo stick together to the bitter end?

 

Wiper Leader Kalonzo Musyoka (right) speaks with ANC party leader Musalia Mudavadi during the launch of his presidential bid on August 9, 2021 at 73 Milimani Karen. [Edward Kiplimo, Standard]

They have served as vice presidents and have unsuccessfully vied for the presidency, once. And as elections beckon, they are each desperate for another opportunity to contest for the top seat, yet they insist on sticking together in one political coalition.

This is the political quagmire that Kalonzo Musyoka and Musalia Mudavadi have plunged themselves into, and one that they hope their supporters will safely pull them out of. In a way, the Wiper Democratic Movement and Amani National Congress (ANC) leaders are like conjoined twins – whose survival is hinged on delicate options of being separated surgically so they can develop singly or being nurtured together in the face of myriad life-threatening conditions.

“Ideally, there is no easy option here because even when the surgical operation (identification of a flag bearer) is eventually undertaken, it could lead to the death of the baby (One Kenya Alliance),” opines Dr Henry Wabwire, a commentator on political affairs.

Noting that Kalonzo and Mudavadi are the most experienced partners in OKA, the political scientist observes that the two are also the most politically restless players within the outfit, owing to personal ambition and pressure from their rural backyards in Ukambani and Western. This, says Dr Wabwire, implies that whoever misses out on the flag bearer ticket “may be doomed politically”.  

The situation is further complicated by the fact that OKA is wooing other high-profile political players from Mt Kenya region, including speaker of the National Assembly Justin Muturi, former Cabinet minister and Narc Kenya party leader who chairs the Mt Kenya Unity Forum, Martha Karua, and former Kiambu Governor William Kabogo. Either Kalonzo or Musalia could be further relegated in the pecking order in the event one of the new entrants is accommodated as a presidential running mate or in another senior capacity.

Kitui Senator Enoch Wambua and political analyst Amukowa Anangwe are equally in agreement that the scramble for the OKA ticket, is a source of a big headache ahead of the August presidential poll.

Nonetheless, Wambua is optimistic that the duo will overcome the impending hurdle: “Kalonzo and Mudavadi know and appreciate that this country is greater than their individual political ambitions and so they will be more than willing to put Kenya first in the pursuit of political leadership”.

But Prof Anangwe, who is currently consulting for the ANC leader, is more pragmatic about the elephant in the room: “This is not an easy one, at all. It is delicate and tricky and the aspirants will have to resolve this matter rationally by themselves, and the good thing is that Kalonzo and Mudavadi are not hostile to one another.”

Interestingly, while the perceived top combatants give the impression of sticking together, the other OKA co-principals, Gideon Moi who is the Kanu party leader, Moses Wetang’ula (Ford-Kenya) and Cyrus Jirongo (United Democratic Party), appear to give mixed signals.

Politicians allied to Wetang’ula, including Kiminini MP Chris Wamalwa and his Kabuchai counterpart Kalasinga Majimbo continue to publicly give indications that they are allied to the rival camp of Deputy President William Ruto. The party boss has neither publicly reprimanded Majimbo nor Wamalwa, who is the party’s secretary general.

Weighty matter

On the other hand, the Baringo senator has consistently projected the view that his OKA colleagues as well as ODM leader, Raila Odinga, and President Uhuru Kenyatta are political partners.

According to Anangwe, though, one of the factors that unite Kalonzo and Mudavadi is their disapproval of the former prime minister: “Other issues aside, the one thing they are resolute about, is not backing Raila or Ruto for presidency.”   

Going by the stakes at hand, coupled with vested interests and expectations of their supporters, the issue of identifying a flag bearer is a weighty matter that will be difficult to resolve and will politically injure the one who will miss out.

In fact, politicians in the rival camps of United Democratic Alliance (UDA) and Azimio La Umoja Movement will be following the developments keenly as they plot a political harvest – courtesy of discontented supporters and even possible fallout within OKA. “Kalonzo has lately been telling us in Ukambani that he left Raila’s wings in order to take a stab at the presidency, and if he fails this time around, we shall ask our people to abandon him for a more reliable leader – the DP,” a source told this writer.

Others like Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, a key ally of Raila, will similarly be hoping to reap from the OKA nomination process. And the same is true of Mudavadi where key allies of Raila, including Kakamega Governor Wycliffe Oparanya and Defence Cabinet Secretary Eugene Wamalwa will be glad to cart away the ANC leader’s support should he miss the ticket. Ruto is similarly lined up for the spoils, through former CS Rashid Echesa and former Kakamega Senator Bony Khalwale.

Although Anangwe suggests placing Kalonzo and Mudavadi on a weighing balance, in terms of political experience, their support base, national appeal and ideological stand, there is a near stalemate in the outcome of this marking scheme.  

With regard to political history, both leaders curiously joined Parliament through by-elections. Kalonzo joined in 1985 following the death of Kitui North MP Philip Manandu. Kalonzo won the by-election, aged only 32. Mudavadi joined him four years later when he was elected unopposed to take the Sabatia seat vacated by his deceased father and Local Government minister Moses Budamba Mudavadi. He was only 29 years old.  

The two were blue-eyed boys of the Kanu regime served in various ministries rising to the position of vice president – Mudavadi for just two and a half months and Kalonzo for five years. Mudavadi also served as deputy prime minister in the 10th Parliament.

And when he vied for the presidency in 2007 under the ODM-Kenya party, Kalonzo garnered 879,903 votes and secured 16 parliamentary seats in 2007, while in 2013, Mudavadi pocketed 483,981 votes when he vied for the top seat on the United Democratic Forum Party and grabbed 11 seats in the National Assembly.  

Referring to the political history of the two leaders, Makueni MP, Dan Maanzo, maintains Kalonzo merits to be OKA’s flag bearer and that anything short of this will not augur well with the people of Ukambani: “Our brother Musalia is equally a good candidate, who enjoys national appeal, but the problem is that he does not enjoy the full support of his community, yet politics is about numbers.”

Anangwe, however, refutes the numbers claim maintaining Musalia’s Luhya community is numerically stronger than Kalonzo’s Kamba. He says Mudavadi also enjoys unparalleled national appeal and is endowed with fairly good resources to run a presidential  campaign.

For Wambua, though, both men have successfully served the country in many ministries and have therefore a deep understanding on the running of government: “They are not toxic politicians and would not throw this country into chaos in pursuit of high political office”.

The senator, however, adds that Kalonzo is a renowned peace maker in the region, who enjoys great international support as well as “immense backing from his lower Eastern political base. But most ANC allied MPs maintain that Mudavadi is the best candidate. According to Lurambi MP Titus Khamala, for instance, they holding on in OKA only because “we know that Musalia will be the one to fly the OKA flag”.

Over the last three months, focus in OKA has indeed majorly revolved around Mudavadi, who has attracted the attention of many political suitors – particularly Ruto and political leaders from the Mt Kenya Forum of Unity. Mudavadi also appears to have a clearer economic blue-print.

Prisoners of allies

Separately, Wabwire thinks Kalonzo and Mudavadi are “non-pragmatic politicians, who are prisoners of their allies”. He projects that OKA will collapse or immediately lose support upon declaring the flag bearer.

“The only thing that is holding them together is the prayer among the aspirants and their supporters that their man is the anointed one. Well, the anointed one will remain but the other will have a serious rethink on his future,” says the political scientist.

However, Wambua says that Kalonzo and Musalia are making great strides in coming up with a deal “that will put Kenya on a safe path past the August 9 elections”.

Anangwe concurs, revealing that if everything stalls, “the two have agreed to proposals to take a retreat – just the two of them – to discuss way forward. When and whether this last option will produce the proverbial white smoke, remains a matter of anxiety within OKA and indeed the rival camps of Raila and Ruto.