Has Musalia Mudavadi failed to rise to the occasion in Western backyard?

ANC leader Musalia Mudavadi at a past event. [Kipsang Joseph, Standard]

Mixed reactions greeted Cotu Secretary-General Francis Atwoli’s call for the Bukhungu II meeting on December 31, 2021, at Bukhungu Stadium, Kakamega. 

While the call to Luhya unity has reverberated for as long as many can recall, Atwoli has managed to cut himself a niche as a true champion of Luhya unity. He has spared neither time nor resource to see it actualised.

In 2016, Atwoli commissioned the University of Nairobi’s Department of Political Science, Public Administration and Economic Studies to carry out a study to establish the most popular Luhya leader.

In the ensuing opinion poll, Musalia Mudavadi carried the day. He garnered 39 per cent of votes cast to beat Moses Wetang'ula, Cyrus Jirongo and then National Assembly Speaker Kenneth Marende.

At the Bukhungu I meeting on December 31, 2016, Mudavadi was crowned the Luhya spokesman and given the power to lead and negotiate on behalf of the Luhya community.

In his speech, Mudavadi said he was ready to serve the community.

“I accept this honour with humility and commitment. The task ahead is a tough one, but I am ready to be your servant,” he said.

While stamping his seal of approval, Atwoli remarked; “We won’t take anyone who comes to look for our political support without going through Mudavadi seriously. Mudavadi is the principal leader in this region”. But a lot has changed ever since.

A pocket of resistance to the Bukhungu II meeting was set rolling by Kakamega Senator Cleophas Malala, who insisted no meeting will be held at Bukhungu without the express permission of Mudavadi.

Did Malala take Atwoli for his 2016 word?

Like the 2016 meeting, the latest comes just when preparations for the 2022 general elections campaigns are warming up.

Mudavadi is a co-principal in the One Kenya Alliance (OKA) that brings together Gideon Moi of Kanu, Kalonzo Musyoka of Wiper and Moses Wetang'ula of Ford Kenya.

The alliance is yet to name its preferred presidential candidate, but Mudavadi has vowed he will go all the way to the ballot.

However, pressure has been mounting on OKA leaders to abandon their quest and support Raila Odinga’s ambition to become Kenya’s 5th president.

Seemingly, it is on the backdrop of this that leaders called for the Bukhungu II meeting. Mid this year, some Luhya leaders met at Golf Hotel Kakamega to draw the 2022 political roadmap for the community.

Conspicuously absent at the meeting were Amani National Congress (ANC) party leader Mudavadi and Wetang'ula.

During the meeting, Atwoli was given carte blanche to ‘negotiate’ and rally the Luhya community behind the ‘leading’ presidential contender. Therein, however, lies the rub as William Shakespeare wrote in the play, Hamlet.

Bukhungu II will put Mudavadi’s claim to popularity in Western to test especially because Raila, among other dignitaries, have been invited.

The meeting presents a conundrum for Mudavadi; to attend or not to attend. Technically, he is still the Luhya spokesman and should be present. Who knows, he could retain his title. Yet to maintain his stature, he must not appear to play second fiddle to Raila. 

It would be embarrassing for Mudavadi if Luhya leaders present at the event openly cast their lot with Raila and urge him to abandon his quest.

Political analyst Martin believes Atwoli wants to install Governor Wycliffe Oparanya as Luhya spokesperson. "But whether the approach will translate into votes for Raila is another issue altogether," said Andati.

He argues that Mudavadi must work harder to galvanise Western Kenya behind him.

"He failed to show leadership and created a vacuum. He should spend more time, energy, and money in consolidating Western or else he could be rendered irrelevant," said Andati.

Mudavadi enjoys massive goodwill from both leaders and the people of the Western region.

It is, however, obvious that he has not harnessed that goodwill to his advantage as a presidential contender. His gentleman mien, while putting him in good stead, where allegations of impropriety and corruption are bandied, also scores off him by portraying him as lacklustre. 

As a presidential contender, Mudavadi is yet to consolidate his Western Kenya backyard where he has held few if any, serious political rallies.

Ford Kenya has been going through upheavals, and while Mudavadi could have used the opportunity to bring the warring parties together and earn the tag of a pacifier, he let the chance pass.

He has demonstrated little interest in bringing the leaders of Western Kenya under one roof for periodic meetings, yet it is through such events he can consolidate his pole position among the Luhya.

Western Kenya looks like easy prey for major parties. The United Democratic Alliance associated with Deputy President William Ruto has made serious inroads in Western as has Raila.

Shutting out these political heavyweights will be a tall order for Mudavadi as he seeks to command the Western vote before going out to other regions to shore up his numbers.  

[email protected]