Raila’s plan to stem fallout from primaries

ODM leader Raila Odinga addressing nearly 10,000 elders at Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Centre in Mombasa, Sunday. [Omondi Onyango, Standard]

The revelation by ODM leader Raila Odinga of plans to commission opinion polls to help the party pick popular candidates has lifted the lid on his plan to avert an acrimonious fallout in the party’s primaries.

Speaking in Mombasa, Raila said the party will conduct polls in specific electoral areas to identify the most popular candidates. He admitted that ODM may also resort to issuing direct tickets in some instances.

The party has also listed consensus as one of its preferred methods of picking candidates for various seats ahead of the 2022 General Election.

“The party has powers to issue direct nominations. How does the party do that? The party can commission an opinion poll,” said Raila.

“We will soon conduct scientific surveys then do another one later. From the polls, we get to know who is more popular in an area then we use the results to settle on the best candidate”.

The ODM leader is facing a dilemma in handling governorship contests in Homa Bay, Siaya, Busia, Kisii, Mombasa and Migori counties, where his allies are eyeing the party ticket.

ODM has been monitoring other electoral zones in its strongholds of Nyanza, Western, Mombasa and Nairobi that are at risk of experiencing fall-outs after nominations.

Yesterday, ODM chairman John Mbadi and Secretary-General Edwin Sifuna said the party will explore all the options provided to pick candidates in the next year’s polls, slated for August.

They said ODM has four methods provided for by its poll rules:  Consensus, direct nomination, election by delegates and universal suffrage.

They said consensus and direct nomination will largely be guided by scientific opinion polls.

“There are four methods of nominations under our rules. First is consensus among candidates,” said Mr Sifuna.

“Second is a direct ticket issued upon a scientific survey and other local considerations showing the recipient of the direct ticket as being the best option. The third is polling amongst party delegates,” he added.

ODM Chairman John Mbadi. [Samson Wire, Standard]

Mr Mbadi said that in the event the first three options are not viable, registered party members will be engaged to pick a candidate through universal suffrage.

“Our constitution talks about consensus. In this case, you sit all the aspirants together and let them agree in arriving at the most competitive candidate,” he said.

“Such consensus is largely guided by opinion polls. It is easy to use the outcome of surveys to determine the most popular candidate so long as the polls are credible.”

The Suba South MP admitted that the use of delegates has always been dogged by controversy over the list of the officials to participate in such a process.

“Where we fail to get a candidate or there is only one person interested in running on the ticket or where there is violence and the person accused is disqualified, we resort to direct nomination,” he said.

In the past, chaotic nominations have seen popular aspirants lose the party ticket but proceeded to win as independent candidates.

In October, Ugunja MP Opiyo Wandayi pulled out of the Siaya governor race, citing extensive consultations. Mr Wandayi’s decision is part of Raila’s subtle efforts to prevent infighting within his team.

Siaya Senator James Orengo, former Police Spokesperson Charles Owino and former Permanent Secretary Carey Orege are seeking to succeed Governor Cornel Rasanga on an ODM ticket.

In Homa Bay, Mbadi and Woman Rep Gladys Wanga are expected to face off in nominations for the ODM governorship ticket. The two are front runners in the race to succeed Governor Cyprian Awiti.

Homa Bay Woman Rep Gladys Wanga. [David Njaaga,Standard]

Others in the race are former Nairobi Governor Evans Kidero, Oyugi Magwanga – who unsuccessfully contested in 2017, Deputy Governor Hamilton Orata, County Secretary Isaiah Ogwe, businessman Jared Otieno and Kuppet Secretary General Akello Misori.

In Mombasa, Mvita MP Abdulswamad Nassir and Suleiman Shahbal – who recently ditched Jubilee for ODM – are set to battle it out for the ODM governorship ticket. Raila is close to the two politicians perceived to be front runners. Already, Governor Hassan Joho has endorsed Nassir for the seat.

Similarly, a tough race is expected in Busia where former MP Paul Otuoma and Woman Rep Florence Mutua are expected to fight for the ODM governorship ticket.

Otuoma ditched ODM in the run-up to 2017 polls after losing out in party nominations to Governor Sospeter Ojaamong.’ He has, however, rejoined the party in readiness for the next poll.

In Kisii, Senator Sam Ongeri and Dagoretti North MP Simba Arati are set to face off for ODM governorship ticket. In Migori, Senator Ochillo Ayacko and Woman Rep Pamela Odhiambo - both Raila allies - have declared interest to succeed Governor Okoth Obado.