Coalition or one party: What will work best for Raila and Ruto?

DP William Ruto confers with Raila Odinga when they attended the memorial service of Mzee Jomo Kenyatta at the Holy Family Basilica, 2018. [Courtesy]

They are undoubtedly the frontrunners in next year’s presidential elections at the moment, and are symbolically pushing the wheelbarrow differently in search for votes. Deputy President William Ruto is shoving it upside down, while ODM leader Raila Odinga is doing it the upright way.

Because he advocates for a single major party – United Democratic Alliance (UDA) – Ruto is cautiously pushing the wheelbarrow upside down for fear of collecting “additional baggage”, while Raila, who prefers a coalition arrangement, is shoving the one-wheeled cart the upright way, so that new partners can easily jump on board.  

As days click away to the August 9 General Election, these are the opposing voter mobilisation avenues that define Ruto and Raila’s campaigns, and which political pundits opine will ultimately determine who will become the country’s fifth president.

Claiming that they already have a coalition with the people of Kenya, UDA Secretary-General Veronica Maina holds that there is no need – just yet – to engage individual political party leaders because of what she described as “need to nurture uniform needs and interests”.

“Presently the common mwananchi has a place to call home and this is because we have taken governance back to the people. We want to reach out to the people directly and not through other entities in the form of political parties, hence the deliberate move to mobilise as one entity – UDA,” says Maina.

According to ODM deputy party leader Hassan Joho, however, the coalition arrangement mirrors some of Raila’s personal attributes of promoting democratic tenets and belief in political inclusivity.

“The umoja (unity) that is espoused in ‘Azimio La Umoja Movement’ aptly captures the spirit of our campaign. Right from BBI (Building Bridges Initiative), our party leader has been on a deliberate drive to promote unity and national cohesion across the country, and this is reflected in our campaign mode of getting everyone on board the Azimio train,” says Joho.

Political scientist Richard Bosire says the voter mobilisation routes taken by Ruto and Raila aptly reflect their character and political needs of the moment. Raila’s approach, he observes, is in tandem with his “Azimio La Umoja” mantra, which has essentially been his rallying call for unity and political support ahead of next year’s polls. On the flipside, Dr Bosire says a comparatively younger Ruto is keener on building a stronger and well grounded outfit for the future.

“Raila’s political needs are more immediate – to nurture a legacy of uniting the country and winning the presidency – hence the need for creating a supra coalition, while Ruto, who is smarting from nasty relations in Jubilee Party, is focused more on a political machine that will sweep its way to power next year or in the near future,” observes the University of Nairobi lecturer.

The only hitch with Ruto’s strategy, opines Bosire, is that the DP has chosen to bypass local leaders and regional kingpins by going directly to the people.

Opinion leaders

“This goes against even our social-cultural system. Opinion leaders do matter in politics, and even Ruto himself enjoys support back home within his Kalenjin community because the local residents regard him as an opinion leader. This explains why his strategy is facing impediments in some quarters,” he says.

Dismissing rivals as leaders of tribal parties, the DP has repeatedly demanded that his allies with parties should fold them and join UDA, a call that has cost him some of his closest allies.

Former Agriculture Cabinet Secretary Mwangi Kiunjuri of The Service Party (TSP) and Gatundu South MP Moses Kuria of Chama Cha Kazi were among the first to bolt out of Ruto’s wings, claiming that the DP was stifling democracy within UDA.

A key plank in Ruto’s think-tank, Edward Kisiang’ani, explains the straight-jacket approach is informed by the probable risks of getting on board individuals with diverse and different goals as well as belief system, who could engage in fights over power and list of priorities.

“We can also opt to push our wheelbarrow the upright way, except that at the moment we have to streamline our operations to ensure we are one team with one common goal,” says Dr Kisiang’ani.

However, Joho attributes the apparent friction amongst some political leaders to “selfish interests and petty rivalries” and not lack of a common goal. “Some of us have put on hold our political interests for the greater good of Kenya. And because only one among us can be president at a time, we have to sacrifice our ambitions at the moment or forever lose our dreams of occupying State House, because if our key rival (Ruto) gets elected we shall all be doomed.”    

Separately, Maina says campaigning under a single outfit is greatly helping to build a national party.

“Our outfit is people-centred, where we discuss and transact issues that cut across all regions, tribes and religions of this country. And because of this, we have a heavy presence in all the 47 counties of Kenya,” she says.

Kisiang’ani says the idea behind getting everyone under one umbrella is to build a firm foundation for a strong party based on common ideals and beliefs. In other words, UDA is designed to be a solid and long-lasting party as opposed to the rival, Azimio Movement, which the Kenyatta University history lecturer describes as an outfit “built on quicksand and primarily meant for the 2022 ballot”.

“Beyond the ballot, we have an agenda to empower the base of our society. We want to get together individuals with a uniform belief in our mission, including the bottom-up economic model,” says Kisiang’ani.

But National Assembly Minority Whip Junet Mohamed, who reserved the “Azimio La Umoja” name with the registrar of political parties, says the coalition route is the most realistic voter mobilisation approach for Raila, because he has many political friends and partners across the country, who want to be part of his political journey this time round.

“Baba is this time round larger than our party, ODM, and we accordingly had to make arrangements to accommodate his partners across the country. Those who believe in him and his leadership qualities but are more comfortable identifying with their traditional or local parties must be accorded that right,” says Junet.

Besides, he says, Raila is this time a candidate of the people of Kenya, and not necessarily ODM, having toured all the 47 counties to promote national cohesion and in the process “getting endorsed by leaders in all the regions” as their preferred presidential candidate.

However, Kisiang’ani considers the Azimio La Umoja Movement’s approach as populist. “We do not wish to plunge into the same confusion as Raila’s and his Nasa (National Super Alliance) colleagues, where one is threatened with a noisy and messy political divorce. Our approach is different here – we are putting a coalition with the people first and with political leaders later, after the poll,” he says.

The UDA strategist faults the Raila arrangement as chaotic and one that has always put him under unnecessary pressure. The best avenue, he posits, is a post-poll deal, which gives a clear picture of the strength of the partners. “One can then strike a deal with partners based on their worth, as opposed to the Raila route of sharing out leadership positions in Parliament and government before the poll outcome, only to realise that the best deals were grabbed by the weakest poll performers,” he says.

To the contrary, Raila’s deputy in the Orange party observes that the coalition route best reflects on the former premier’s record of respect for democracy. “Having fought for democratic space all his life, his warming up to partners and opening up enough space for them is only natural,” says Joho.

Bosire believes that a supra coalition is the most viable route for Raila at the moment, as long as he hammers out an agreeable pre-election pact with his partners. “This is a tougher and more challenging route, though, because once in power if he mistreats his partners they will harm him badly, and render his rule impossible.”

And while insistence on a single party is “quite limiting in clinching the top seat under the new constitutional dictates of garnering over 50 per cent of the polls cast”, Bosire says if the DP pulls through, it would make his governance easier and smoother. And even if he misses out on the presidency, he says, the DP will have a solid – and not fragmented – team to rely on “to push his agenda through Parliament and sustain his campaign ahead of 2027”.

“As for Raila, who has opted to drop the guard on full party control, he has to allow parties to flourish in supra coalition arrangement and juggle his balls cautiously to ensure the coalition sticks together. However, his outfit and political power will disintegrate immediately in the event he fails to win the presidency,” says Dr Bosire.