Why President Ruto shouldn't put his hopes on Oburu's Linda Ground

 President William Ruto and ODM leader Oburu Oginga at a past event. [File, Standard]

Raila Odinga worked with friends and foes. He treated his voting blocs with respect, and they paid him back. For the last five elections, Luhyas ranked number one in voting for Raila. The Kamba did the same, election after election, in great numbers. Then came 2022. Raila was on the ballot a fifth time. ODM held governors, senators, MPs, MCAs — everything. And still, 700,000 Luo Nyanza voters stayed home. Stations were half-empty by midday. If Nyanza would not wake up for its own, why would it wake up for William Ruto because Oburu Oginga, Gladys Wanga, John Mbadi or Opiyo Wandayi said so?

A year since Raila’s death, the ODM map has shrunk. And recently, it exploded in Homa Bay. Violence rocked its bedrock and brought back memories of the worst post-election bloodshed 20 years ago. When leaders turn to intolerant rhetoric that fuels violence, they mutilate the former ODM leader’s legacy.

This is the same week we marked Raila’s first anniversary. Tremors are now hitting the ODM orbit harder than ever. It remains to be seen where the Odinga family will align. Winnie Odinga of East African Legislative assembly appears to favour Edwin Sifuna, who tops favourability because he carries the Odinga spirit. If the family defies Oburu’s Linda Ground, Ruto gets a double puncture in Luoland.

President Ruto handed lucrative dockets, including Finance, to Raila’s largely Luoland wing of ODM, now led by Raila’s brother Oburu under the Linda Ground camp, to lure Luo Nyanza for 2027.

Was this a flawed bet? Look at the driver. Linda Ground is presented as Raila’s successor, but Oburu is indisposed and aged. Unlike his brother, a tactician who turned a funeral into a rally, Oburu speaks but lacks the ruthless instinct that made his brother a colossus. Ruto has less than a year to the election and is hunting numbers. That is why Linda Ground tempts him. On paper, it promises Luo Nyanza votes, but the numbers say the opposite. Luos are loud in campaigns but absent at the ballot. Some of the leaders sounding loyal to Ruto are transactional, chasing appointments, tenders or harambees. They trade loyalty for gain. Not votes. They failed Raila. They will fail Ruto.

If I were Ruto, I would treat them with a pinch of salt. Relying on them without taming polarising politics will cost him victory. Under the guise of backing Ruto, some Luo leaders prove loyalty through intimidation. Yet Babu Owino, Edwin Sifuna, George Natembeya and Carol Omondi have every right to traverse Kenya undeterred.

The recent attack on former Vice President Stephen Kalonzo Musyoka during his Ukombozi Alliance tour in Luo Nyanza augurs badly and paints the region as intolerant. It alienates the region from the rest of Kenya. The Kamba voted for Raila in great numbers. The least the region can show Kalonzo is tolerance and respect. But now, some Luo leaders are treating the rest of Raila’s followers, who hold a different opinion, as traitors, abusing them to make Ruto happy. Foul language dominates their pronouncements.

In Parliament, an ODM MP once argued that the Standard Media Group should be banned, even though his mentor, Raila, always advocated for a free press.

Fallout is already visible. In Gusiiland, voters who once loved ODM see no reason to follow Oburu. Richard Onyonka, Okong’o Omogeni and Anthony Kibagendi tilted to Fred Matiang’i and Linda Mwananchi. In Luhyaland and Nairobi, the ground shifted to Sifuna, Orengo, Natembeya and Babu. On the Coast, Aisha Jumwa and Mohamed Ali emerged as the strongest voices of loyal opposition. Oburu’s ODM has lost Luhyaland, Nairobi, Kisii and Coast, Turkana, Maasailand and North Eastern.

Expelling Sifuna and Godfrey Osotsi alienated Luhyas. An intact ODM would have been Ruto’s muscle; Sifuna, the ideal running mate. They forgot optics before kicking him out. How will leaders from Luo Nyanza, alleged to be behind the attacks on Linda Mwananchi and the Ukombozi coalition, campaign for Ruto in Luhyaland and Ukambani, where Sifuna and Kalonzo hold sway?

These are Raila orphans now in a queer street, claiming Raila left them in broad-based. In Nyanza, Western, Nairobi, Turkana, Narok, North Eastern and Coast, association with Raila alone won elections.

If Joho, Wycliffe Oparanya and Simba Arati could not deliver the presidency for Raila, how will they deliver for Ruto?

Mr Nyaringo is a Kenyan public affairs commentator based in Washington, USA