Why neighbours must wake up to Somalia's political and security transition threats

Members of the Somali National Army during a previous training. [Courtesy, UNSOS]

Regional leaders head to the United Nations General Assembly this month where a side meeting will focus on securing financing for the AU's new mission in Somalia, AUSSOM. Yet this discussion may be coming a little too late. The Somali government has already lost crucial momentum in managing the security transition, muddling offensives once hailed as a turning point, and is now heading into a political transition far riskier than those before it. Without urgent regional engagement, Somalia risks sliding into a crisis that no amount of pledges in New York will be able to contain.

For more than a decade, Somalia's electoral cycles followed a flawed but familiar pattern: elections delayed, tempers flared, and then an elite bargain was struck; often with heavy nudging from international partners. This time, that safety net may no longer hold. Unlike before, the centre's exclusionary political strategy and faltering offensives have eroded trust internally, while the outside world is quietly stepping back. That combination makes this transition uniquely perilous.