Tribalism is Out; Pocketbook Issues are In

 

A voter casts her vote during the 2022 General election voting at Uhuru Gardens primary school , Langata constituency ,Nairobi . August , 2022 [File,Standard]

In Botswana, the ruling BDP lost power in dramatic fashion after six decades, winning only four of 61 parliamentary seats. The incumbent NPP in Ghana lost in an unprecedented landslide, while Senegal witnessed a remarkable turnaround for the opposition PASTEF party, despite the main opposition leader being imprisoned for the campaign. Even the most entrenched ruling liberation parties were not immune to this trend with South Africa and Namibia seeing historic gains for previously written-off opposition parties.

Africans are sending a strong message to those in power. The people have a voice. And they are not afraid to use it.

This trend did not begin in 2024 of course. Back in 2021 in Zambia, wary of the deteriorating economic conditions, President Edgar Lungu did everything to make the campaign about identity politics and distract the voters from the issues truly affecting their daily lives. His campaign played on the fear of minorities, calling his opponent Hakainde Hichilema, who is from the minority Tonga tribe, a ‘dangerous tribalist’.

Hichilema and his UNPD party, however, were unperturbed. Their campaign remained laser-focused on the issues Zambians actually cared about irrespective of tribe, namely jobs and rising prices; it was supplemented with an Obama-esque disciplined message of ‘Time For Change’. In the final days, he framed the choice: ‘You can vote UPND to grasp these opportunities, create jobs and lower food prices, or you can choose Lungu and five more years of empty promises and visionless government.’ Zambians chose the former.

The optimists will rightly celebrate the now numerous examples of the peaceful transfer of power, viewing these trends as a sign of real democratic progress on the continent, especially at a time of so much democratic backsliding across the world. However, the pessimists will point to a much more worrying development underpinning the electoral drubbing of incumbents: People are suffering, and governments seem to be out of answers.

From soaring inflation and endemic corruption to mass youth unemployment, Africans, more educated and more connected than ever, are now less and less likely to be beholden to tribal voting patterns and identity politics.

Across the south of the continent, for example, traditional liberation parties simply don’t speak the same ‘language’ as the Gen Z voters. The urban youth don’t remember the struggles of their parents and are laser-focused on their own day-to-day efforts to put food on the table and provide for their families. Poverty and power-cuts are more pertinent movers for these voters than the battles of yesteryear.

Indeed, to some extent, President William Ruto’s 2022 victory in Kenya was also a part of this same trend. The ‘hustler’ outsider ran a successful ‘change’ campaign against the ancien régime, despite being the sitting deputy president. Raila Odinga, perhaps the politician most associated with the eternal opposition failed to leverage this brand. In fact, he managed to negatively repaint his candidacy as a BBI-led, Uhuru-backed, campaign of continuity. And the rest is history.

The urban youth-led protests which erupted over the Finance Bill in June, and inspired similar protests across the continent, represented an abrupt end to Ruto’s ‘honeymoon period’. A sign that campaign poetry must now be backed up by actual prose. And that unkept promises will be punished.

Indeed, when conducting focus group discussions in Nairobi and Mount Kenya ahead of the last election, the day-to-day frustration of the participants with then President Uhuru Kenyatta was paramount. Anger regarding decades of broken promises was acute. Resentment regarding backroom political deals was rife.

“If somebody steals a chicken they get shot by the police, but if you steal one billion shillings, then you are let go”, exclaimed one 45-year-old man from Kiambu, reflecting his anger towards the modus operandi of the establishment. A Nairobi resident in his mid 20’s was similarly frustrated, “Seven years ago I had hopes for a bright future, but since then each year has been worse.”

Indeed, throughout our polling ahead of 2022, we saw how Uhuru’s Mt Kenya base was no longer willing to follow their leader’s calls, instead following what they saw as their best interests: to reject the BBI, to reject Raila, and to vote instead for Ruto who was focusing on the issues that really mattered to them.

Having conducted in-depth public opinion research now in over a dozen countries across the continent in recent years, from the DRC to Ghana, from Nigeria to Zambia, the trend is unmistakable: Tribalism is out. Pocketbook issues are in.

As we head into 2025, incumbents would do well to take note.

With pivotal elections coming up in Ivory Coast and Malawi, amongst others, the opposition parties will of course be buoyed by the lessons of 2024. Citizens in both these nations are more educated and connected than ever before, and many will have noted the continental trend of punishing even the most powerful of parties, often in spite of religious, ethnic or linguistic affinity.

In Kenya too, where the politicking and presidential positioning ahead of 2027 is already clicking into gear, these lessons must be internalised, both by the incumbent administration, and the ever-growing list of potential alternatives.  A paradigm shift is required - from ethnicity to everyday issues.

And to do that, campaigners and leaders must start with the voters’ pockets and stomachs. Only then, can you truly touch their hearts.

Simon Davies and Joshua Hantman are partners at Number 10 Strategies, an international strategic, research and communications consultancy, who have polled and run campaigns for presidents, prime ministers, political parties and major corporations across dozens of countries in four continents