If Moi and Kibaki had baptism by fire, Ruto has been to hell and back

President William Ruto presses the new IEBC bill he just signed into law with the government seal on July 9, 2024. [Denish Ochieng, Standard]

Never before in the history of Kenya has a leader succumbed to pressure in the manner that President William Ruto has done in responding to demands by restive youth in recent weeks.

It is unprecedented, because no president rejected a Finance Bill passed by Parliament, subjected himself to questions in a hostile social media platform, and made budget cuts, including those of his spouse, before firing the entire Cabinet. And even after doing all that, the pressure keeps increasing.

Political analysts argue that he had no choice but to do something radical for his own political survival.

President Daniel arap Moi faced a tough challenge for about two years when the country witnessed riots between opposition supporters and police between 1990 and late 1991, which resulted in the return to the multiparty system and the December 1992 elections.

Before that, Moi had either reshuffled or made drastic changes in his Cabinet, especially after the 1982 coup, when he became increasingly paranoid especially when dealing with former powerful colleagues he had served with in President Jomo Kenyatta’s government.

As is the case now, when Kenyans are fighting against what they consider to be punitive taxation measures lumped on them by the Bretton Woods institutions, Moi also became increasingly unpopular when he introduced Structural Adjustment Programmes, leading to many job losses through retrenchments and other austerity measures.

Lack of trust

After declining to sign the Finance Bill, President Ruto has promised that most State corporations are going to be merged, a move similar to measures Moi took when Musalia Mudavadi, now Prime Cabinet Secretary, was his Minister for Finance.

Former Cabinet Minister Kipruto arap Kirwa agrees that Ruto has made some bold steps but worries that due to the lack of trust that Kenyans have in him, he could end up taking two steps forward and one backwards.

“Look at the many statements he has made in the last week, saying he was going to engage with the youth and shortly afterwards warning that he was going to crash protesting criminals,” says Kirwa.

Critics have also pointed out that unlike presidents Moi and Mwai Kibaki who had professionals, including professors like George Saitoti, Sam Ongeri, Jonathan Ngeno and Josephat Karanja in their Cabinets, Ruto chose to reward political supporters to run critical dockets.

President Kibaki fired ministers implicated in the Anglo-Leasing scandal but CSs in Ruto’s government implicated in scandals like the importation of edible oil, petroleum products and the sale of fake fertilizer remained in office.

The protests are, therefore, a blessing in disguise for Ruto because, like Kibaki who got an opportunity of reducing his then-bloated government of 40 ministers and a bigger number of assistants, he has an opportunity to reduce his cabinet and cut costs.

President Ruto has also announced that he will drastically reduce the number of advisors in government but critics again ask if he will take whatever counsel those who will remain give.

In 2005, Kibaki also sacked his entire cabinet largely because of political survival after 57 per cent of the electorate rejected a referendum on the new constitution, which amounted to a vote of no confidence in him and his government.

Scholar and journalist Barrack Muluka says leaders in other democracies whose authority is challenged in the manner that has happened resign, citing examples of prime ministers Theresa May, Boris Johnson and David Cameron in the UKingdom.

Kibaki did not resign despite calls by the opposition that he quits and the situation is similar with who, despite the “Ruto must go” calls, is not expected to throw in the towel anytime soon.

Prof Peter Kagwanja says Kibaki changed his Cabinet because he wanted to get rid of almost half of LDP members led by Raila Odinga in the Narc administration, because they had opposed the referendum.

“Kibaki changed because he had to survive. He could have resigned on November 21, 2005, but this is Kenya. He got MPs from other parties among them Uhuru Kenyatta’s Kanu and Simeon Nyachae’s Ford People to join his NAK members and moved on,” says Kagwanja.

From his analysis, Ruto is also doing it for political survival. The ringing call out there is “Ruto must go” and that is why he is taking about forming a “board-based government”.

Protesters say they do not want the President to continue with the old habits of having incompetent, corrupt, unethical and people with criminal records in government.

They are asking for a completely clean slate and those are similar questions that faced President Kibaki when he was forced to sack some of his ministers for engaging in corruption.

Analysts also think Ruto is taking a gamble to work with the opposition because he knows his support base in the Mt Kenya region has seriously dissipated.

The President announced last week that he was going to have a broad-based conversation with different political formations, and the same was alluded to by Raila when Ruto assented to the IEBC bill at KICC, eliciting a backlash against the ODM leader from the youth.

Asked what Ruto expects to achieve from the broad-based government he intends to create, political analyst Martin Andati said he probably wants more people to help him carry the burden.

“He wants other people to help him carry responsibility, but these politicians are going to find it very difficult because they are living in the past when the young people are probably 10 years ahead,” says Andati.

He sees the President being in a very awkward position because it appears that together with Raila, he wants to recycle the usual characters that have been in government and the opposition.

That will not wash because of the backlash that will follow against Raila and other opposition leaders, who may beat a quick retreat because they may not want to come across as sellouts and opportunists riding on the gains made by Gen Z protesters.

Andati foresees a situation where the country could have no Cabinet for months because of hostility from the youth and the challenges the President is going to face in reconstituting the so-called broad-based government.

He also argues that the use of goons to attack peaceful protesters is not going to work, because killing them will only harden their resolve to fight for more changes in governance.

“The outrage over the young people who have been killed is massive and it is going to be worse unless things change. IG Japheth Koome has resigned but the pressure is unlikely to lessen,” adds Andati.

Opposition leaders say they are rooting for dialogue so that all issues being raised can be addressed collectively by all stakeholders but the young people are adamant that they have already laid out the issues that need to be addressed.

They do not want anything to do with dialogue or coalitions governments.

The current crisis is also different because those agitating for change don’t want to see political formations or the same things that were done in the past, like creating positions to reward people or to pacify some communities.

Kirwa advises the President to stop micro-managing the Cabinet and instead allow them and senior civil servants to carry out their functions without interference.

“He should step back and ask himself why the Cabinet has not performed well in the last 18 months. It is because he is a micro-manager who gets embroiled in every ministry to the extent that he is the minister of all ministries, where the minister becomes a mere figurehead,” says Kirwa.

He wants to see CSs working with professionals for advice, with a sound reporting system in government, where there is proper capacity building for individual cabinet members.

Kirwa thinks although the outgoing Cabinet Secretaries had the ultimate authority as provided for by the law, they had advisors handpicked by the President, who allegedly spend more time talking with him than to the CSs.

Analysts have also urged Ruto to reflect more on better governance instead of using the political route in handling the challenges facing his government.

Kagwanja put it bluntly: “This is unprecedented. It is a revolution by this generation. It will be a serious mistake if they think this is business as usual where people can go to the Bomas for talks and continue.”

The President has also been advised that reorganisation should not be based on rewarding loyalists and creating a veneer of protection by aligning himself with people he thinks are politically correct.