My few questions on the Gen Z and the way forward for Kenya

Damaged section of Parliament Buildings, Nairobi, following Gen Z protests held on June 24, 2024. [Elvis Ogina, Standard]

Can the Gen Z movement get Kenya past the tribal rubicon and begin aggregation of political interests around economic issues? So politics becomes first and foremost about pocketbook issues like cost of living, purchasing power, public safety and jobs! 

How long can Gen Z remain leaderless (if there really are any social movements that are leaderless). At some point, the movement will need to nominate representatives to do the messy job of negotiating the politics. This involves compromise, tolerance, reform and change. Can they? 

Ideals with no vision will last for so long before they die out. Think of the Arab Spring, for instance, and the ideals to reform the Middle East, but no concrete vision of what it would look like. A power vaccum at the centre can create its own problems as is happening in Sudan.

I am interested to see what vision Gen Z will give Kenya post #Reject Finance Bill 2024.  

Can Gen Z afford to reject all of the political 60s, 70s and 80 year old political class? Entrenched interests will fight back and any reformist Gen Z leadership will need to pick their battles carefully. 

Where does the lonely president go from here? The DP is the proverbial Brutus in the court of Julius Ceaser. There is no running away from the historical memory of the 2007 ethnic massacres in Rift Valley and whom the Mountain blames for their tribulations at that time. 

Is it wise for President Ruto to keep the Deputy President and the unconstitutional office of Prime CS even if it is to attempt to keep the Mountain and Mulembe Nation in government? 

Bringing Azimio leader Raila Odinga into a handshake government will collapse the centre of power in terms of the 2022 alliance of Mt Kenya and Rift Valley. He is a master of distorting ruling coalitions as Ruto saw after 2018! However, he might have no choice as ironically Raila might be his only chance of limping through his first term into 2027, as a lameduck president! 

Further afield, what will Kenya's allies in the West do? Will they allow democracy and Gen Z power uproot their favourite African president? 

How will Ruto deliver on his election promises, with no money? Cutting spending or raising taxes are non starters as they only further alienate the voting public already suffering the worst of austerity.

However, borrowing more to fund government spending (most of which goes to pay public servants), will bring Ruto at odds with the IMF and could lead to shutting of credit facilities from Washington and a further downgrade of Kenya's credit rating by Moodys and Standard & Poors. Thereby raising interest rates on any potential debt Kenya wants to take up. 

Then, what will Deputy President Rigathi Gachagua do? If he continues his backroom undermining of his boss, he will only weaken the government. Might this be an opportune time to call the president's bluff and drive a hard bargain?

Should he demand that if Raila or Azimio are introduced into government, Mt Kenya is out of his government forcing him to call for snap elections? Might this be why the DP has been seeking rapprochement with Uhuru Kenyatta?

Will Musalia Mudavadi finally make a decision on where he sits politically and where the Mulembe Nation should go? As it stands, he and Moses Wetang'ula are really vulnerable flower girls with no political constituency, having no elected political portfolio they can claim to the grassroots.

Will this lead to other ethno-regional kingpins rising in Western such as George Natembea? As it stands, the Mulembe Nation will continue to be used as the backs upon which other regions ascend to power. 

Where will the Kisii, Kamba, Coastal voting blocs go in this uncertain political space? Hedging their vote on a wait-and-see basis might serve them well.

Lastly, I'm still not sold on the transformative nature of Gen Z. They may have shaken the political class, but Kenyan politics remains fundamentally about ethnic constituency and negotiation of access to power via ethno-regional kingpins.

-The writer is a professor in the US