Power will change Raila, if things go his way in elections

ODM party leader and Azimio la Umoja Presidential candidate Raila Odinga. [File, Standard]

Power is strange. It can transform a cat into a lion. It manages both the wielder and those around.

From Nicolo Machiavelli to Robert Green, there are unalterable scientific laws of power. Four stand out. Power abhors vacuums. It hates many centres. Balance of terror generates balance of power. And power detests blackmail.

Those thronging around Azimio la Umoja leader, Raila Odinga dreaming of blackmail and sharing in his glory after the 9 August election have a huge shock in store. Let us fly into the future. It is 10 August 2022. Things have worked well for Raila. He has been officially declared the winner of the presidential race. Deputy President, William Ruto, has conceded defeat. 

It is merry and razzmatazz in the Azimio camp. There have been a few casualties here and there. A number of gubernatorial candidates lost to Kenya Kwanza. The same happened with all other seats. But it does not matter, it is time to celebrate. As the saying goes, “My father’s house has many chambers.” If that were not so, would Raila have told his supporters that he was going to prepare a place for them? There is, accordingly, much reason to be noisy, to eat and drink.

Soon, however, reality begins sinking. The president-elect is no ordinary citizen. A tight security cordon has been thrown around him. His homes are no longer accessible. Those who hobnobbed with him can no longer reach him. Even family members, outside the immediate nuclear circle, must be specially cleared before reaching him. His siblings enjoy some level of preferential access, for a few day. Soon, even they have to be cleared in advance. And, take note, he is not yet the president.

Power is slowly sinking in, settling down. Some party leaders from Azimio outfits imagine that he owes them something, following vague agreements they signed, even without knowing the contents as they are telling us. They try calling to congratulate the president-elect.

But it is mostly to try to remind him of some vague promises of, “You will be with me in Paradise.” From the end of the phone line come the mechanical words, “The number you are calling is out of service,” followed by, “Ting’(a)! Ting’(a)! Ting’!”

Some are not even invited to the inauguration, two weeks later. Most of those who make it sit in the 15th row. As the man of the day walks in, they wave frantically and nervously try to catch his eye. But he is busy smiling and shaking hands with the important front row. He eventually turns around to smile, and wave his large hat at the rest, in a generalised acknowledgment. It is a new dawn, as he indeed states in his inaugural presidential address. The irony of the message is lost on the audience. 

But, slowly, they begin getting it. There is a new sheriff in town. When he names his government, it is completely contrary to expectation. In line with Machiavellian counsel, he is not rewarding those who have made him king. These are people to be pushed very far away, if not destroyed altogether. Otherwise they will nag him about pre-election promises.

Ancient Cabinet Secretaries and other notables who thought they would be in the next dispensation are in shock. Their names are nowhere. Who wants to carry baggage from past regimes?

Former president, Uhuru Kenyatta, is hardly treated any differently. For, he is no longer the president. He seeks and waits for appointments with the president through State House officials. His direct access ended a month after the inauguration. When he eventually gets to State House, he waits for the big man in the VVIP waiting room, taking tea with mandazi. 

Perish the dream of a captive president who will do other people’s bidding. Power does not behave that way. It transforms a cat into a lion. And Raila is not even a cat. There will be no captive, no power sharing, no vacuum and no terror to make Raila share power with anybody, if things go his way. Get that now and thank me later. 

Dr Muluka is a strategic communications advisor. www.barrackmuluka.co.ke