Kenya needs grand strategy to survive

Partly due to internally and externally induced changing geopolitical realities, Kenya needs a ‘grand strategy’. This calls for the ability to balance long-term dreams with possible resources; actual or potential.  

Kenya’s challenge is in balancing desires with realities, synchronising its macro-thinking with its micro-application. Vast infrastructural and communications developments transform rural areas into mushrooming urbanities.

New airports and airstrips facilitate the fast movement of goods and services and create numerous jobs. Counties that are properly run become engines of national development. The possibilities of Lamu outpacing Mombasa and Kisumu, once Lapsset gets going are very high.

There are psycho-social challenges ranging from youth substance abuse, schools lacking essential facilities, and reliable health services becoming memories. Of deep concern is the fact that inducements for rural and urban economic growth in order to generate jobs are so limited, they outdo visible benefits.

The link in the cycle of wealth creation has broken and turned into a cycle of poverty acceleration. This compounds social-political misery which astute politicians exploit by presenting themselves as saviours of the masses while entering into a cut-throat competition as to who the bigger/real ‘saviour’ is.    

Politicians operate on political expediency, show little interest in keeping promises they solemnly make and leave the public perplexed. Since 2017, several by-elections in Kenya have shown this to be the case as members of political parties turn on each other, reorganise their political beliefs and introduce new language.

After Ken Okoth died in 2019, the by-election in Kibra made it impossible to tell who was in Jubilee or who was in ODM. It gave Babu Owino the chance to introduce a new terminology in Kenyan politics; ‘bedroom’, that Kibra was Raila’s political bedroom.

Thereafter, the ‘bedroom’ concept spread outside Nairobi to other regions to mean tribal zoning of the country to cater for ‘kingpin’ interests. The Jubilee Party fragmented into feuding factions and lost its vibrancy.

As it gravitated towards its rival ODM party, other NASA bigwigs realigned themselves with Gideon Moi’s Kanu in fresh anti-ODM thrust only for coronavirus to interfere with the realignments. Kenya, despite its internal political commotions, faces global political realignment and has to find its own niche in the midst of provocations from neighbours and extra-continental powers.

Tanzania quarrelled with Kenya overreactions to coronavirus and trade at the border. But more serious than challenges from Tanzania is the extra-continental use of Somalia as a proxy in well-orchestrated anti-Kenyan moves.

No country presents more geopolitical headache to Kenya than Somalia. First, despite its fragmentation, its irredentist ideology remains fixated in the minds of its leaders. Seemingly inspired by manipulative forces targeting Kenyan sea wealth, Somalia has expanded its irredentist focus from the land to the sea.

Second, Somalia is a proxy to various extra-continental forces with an interest in forcing Kenyan compliance with external geopolitical dreams. Although the government in Mogadishu lacks legitimacy, having failed to hold parliamentary and presidential elections, it has great geopolitical value to those with imperial proclivities.

Global realignment

Among them is Turkey, which is training troops in Mogadishu. Similarly, Western oil sponsors of the anti-Kenya case at The Hague are eager to stage ‘hearings’. At independence, Somalia’s irredentism was a headache for Kenya and still is today.

Kenya decided not to participate in the dubious hearings at The Hague as a way of asserting its interests. It also sends out feelers that it is ready to engage in neighbourly talks and to address other challenges. It worked hard to attain a rotational UNSC seat to represent African interests. This way, it secures its niche in global realignment.

There is rising stiff power competition between the United States trying to regain its lost geopolitical glory and China pushing its way to the top of the geopolitical ladder. Finding a geopolitical niche is Kenya’s challenge.

Prof Munene is a senior associate, Horn International Institute for Strategic Studies.