Kenya should seek inclusive political roadmap for Somalia

By Billow Kerrow

A month after our troops entered Somalia, political analysts continue to ponder on the political end game of this military incursion. Most commentators and political observers wonder what next after the military removes Al Shabaab. This raises the primary question – what is the objective of this war that the military says was abruptly conceived.

Our leaders have given varying comments on this matter. The Vice- President reiterated that Kenyan troops would stay as long as is necessary to stabilise not just Kenya’s borders but also Somalia and the region. The military, too, has given indications that we are in for the long haul. Initially, it was to rid our borders of Al Shabaab and secure it by creating a buffer zone known as Azania State.

In recent weeks, this appears to have been abandoned as the Somali President Sheikh Shariff trashed the concept of balkanising the country and undermining his nationwide authority. Ethiopia, which calls the shorts in Mogadishu, reportedly backed Shariff who had their tacit approval to deride the Kenyan invasion initially.

And this week, Sheikh Shariff was in Nairobi and brought along his close friend, Uganda’s President Yoweri Museveni, to help him impress upon Kenyans that he runs Somalia or what is left of it, and that our troops should handover any captured territory to his TFG regime. It is clear that the Azania agenda seems to have been put in the freezer. They also succeeded in convincing Kenya to join Amisom if it wants its troops to push all the way to Mogadishu and ‘liberate’ Somalia as our leaders have called for in recent weeks.

This move limits Kenya’s unilateral mission of securing its borders and placing its troops under Amisom, an action that will also legitimise its actions in Somalia. Sensing the political landmines it got itself into, the Government has been on the diplomatic offensive globally to explain itself and get support for its mission. So far, many have welcomed Kenya’s move to defend its borders and fight terrorism. And except for the kind words, it is highly unlikely that these countries will reach for cheque books and draw some little cash for our efforts.

Except for a few skirmishes, the first month ended without any major battles. The army announced that it is focusing on humanitarian activities in the ‘liberated’ areas, a dumb move in my view. You do not go to war and start dishing out candies in the brief lull. The US premised its 1994 ‘Operation Restore Hope’ on humanitarian operations, but the warlords read a political agenda in the mission and went to war, forcing the US to capitulate.

The Somali population has so far remained indifferent or supportive of Kenya’s mission. The army’s decision to shelve its earlier warning of imminent attacks on ten major towns in southern Somalia was a wise move that prevented potential collateral damage that would have tipped the support among many Somalis.

The police have handled the expected ‘crackdown’ in Eastleigh and other parts of the country fairly well, with minimal victimisation, and focusing more on enhancing intelligence operations.

The PM’s visit to Israel seeking support to fight terrorism did not go down well with many Somalis. There is no love lost between the Muslims and the Jewish State and the move elicited negative reaction even in Somalia. It was a daft political move, lacking in strategic thought. It is similar to equally sterile thoughts by some of our leaders that Kismayu will be administered from Garissa once captured.

Somalia’s problem requires a political solution, not a military one. It is essential that Kenya and its allies seek an inclusive, broad-based political road map that will create a strong, centralised government. As we are the most affected in the long term, we must not tire of this process.

—The writer is a former MP for Mandera Central and political economist