3 options that will make or break Kalonzo Musyoka’s political future

Wiper leader Kalonzo Musyoka addresses the press in Nairobi. March 1, 2022. [Denish Ochieng, Standard]

Kalonzo Musyoka is playing safe when he’s supposed to checkmate politically. If in a few weeks he’ll not have moved, and that’s not a spell, he could be politically over and done with. Can Raila Odinga or William Ruto offer themselves as burnt offerings to salvage Kalonzo? I doubt. 

So, Kalonzo’s destiny is like that of a renowned king who reigned during the united monarchy in the Middle East between 1047 BCE and 930 BCE. Historical accounts show that the king decided to carry out a census of the fighting men in his monarchy. That was against his deity. 

He credited his military superiority to numbers by counting his soldiers and not God. He could use the numbers for self-aggrandisement. To punish him, God gave him a list of punishments to choose from. Of the three options were three years of fleeing from enemies, three years of famine, or three days for the angel of God to strike the land with a severe plague. 

That was King David under siege for counting his soldiers! Likewise, Kalonzo has purportedly counted his votes in the Eastern region, and he is now puffed up. He’s justified to do so because he’s the Ukambani region’s undisputed political honcho. 

The political heavens have condemned Kalonzo to choose three options for his fate. The first is for him to go all the way to the ballot. This way, people will decide his fortune. It’ll be the most precarious option because citizens can easily squash his three decades political career.

Moreover, going to the ballot presumes that all OKA principles stick with him and give him undivided support. That’s not assured. Doing so will also scatter the Ukambani votes - one portion that trusts Kitui Governor Charity Ngilu, Makueni’s Prof Kivutha Kibwana and Machakos’ Alfred Mutua will go to Azimio.

The second portion will go to Ruto’s UDA and Kalonzo will go with the bigger but insignificant portion. 

Kalonzo’s second option is to join UDA and spend the next few months to elections fleeing from his past blunders. He will suffer more in UDA in being taken to the “Kenya Institute of Character Development”. His past will start speaking in public rallies.

Moreover, should Kalonzo join UDA, he’ll split Ukambani votes. That’s because he can’t deliver all Ukambani votes to Ruto while all his governors are in the Raila-led Azimio. Again, Ruto cannot make him his running mate. So, should he join UDA, he would follow his brother Musalia Mudavadi — to disadvantage Raila. For this reason, that’s not a grenade that Raila and co. should play with. 

The third option for Kalonzo is to join Azimio and be prepared to endure a period of a low political profile. Additionally, under Azimio, his votes will be all males — they cannot reproduce. They won’t afford him any negotiation power. From the feeling within Azimio, they’ve no chance of Kalonzo becoming Raila’s running mate. The best he can have is a promise that BBI reggae will be reloaded to birth more slots that can be allocated to him if Raila wins. 

Even though Kalonzo could give Raila more votes than Mt Kenya, the political times and seasons have left Ukambani looking green, with no fruit for Kalonzo. Like the fabled ‘looking green’ fig tree that frustrated Jesus of Nazareth when he needed food, Ukambani looks so green for Kalonzo but has no fruit for him. Interestingly, the region has enough for Raila.  

Therefore, since Azimio is assured of all Ukambani votes should Kalonzo join them, they must sell all that they have and buy Kalonzo to their side. Otherwise, he is a Samson who is holding the 2022 Azimio political pillars.  If he collapses them, he and Raila could be retiring after the August 9 elections. What then is the conclusion of this matter? The pieces are moved. Time and season might just take Kalonzo off the political chessboard. 

-The writer is a lecturer of Communication and Media. @Dr_Mndonye